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101.
Application of a checklist for quality assistance in environmental modelling to an energy model 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
James Risbey Jeroen van der Sluijs Penny Kloprogge Jerry Ravetz Silvio Funtowicz Serafin Corral Quintana 《Environmental Modeling and Assessment》2005,10(1):63-79
Large, complex energy models present considerable challenges to develop and test. Uncertainty assessments of such models provide only partial guidance on the quality of the results. We have developed a model quality assistance checklist to aid in this purpose. The model checklist provides diagnostic output in the form of a set of pitfalls for the model application. The checklist is applied here to an energy model for the problem of assessing energy use and greenhouse gas emissions. Use of the checklist suggests that results on this issue are contingent on a number of assumptions that are highly value-laden. When these assumptions are held fixed, the model is deemed capable of producing moderately robust results of relevance to climate policy over the longer term. Checklist responses also indicate that a number of details critical to policy choices or outcomes on this issue are not captured in the model, and model results should therefore be supplemented with alternative analyses. 相似文献
102.
Using environmental stressor information to predict the ecological status of Maryland non-tidal streams as measured by biological indicators 总被引:4,自引:0,他引:4
Vølstad JH Roth NE Mercurio G Southerland MT Strebel DE 《Environmental monitoring and assessment》2003,84(3):219-242
In Maryland, U.S., an interim framework has recentlybeen developed for using biologically based thresholds, or `biocriteria', to assess the health of nontidal streams statewide at watershed scales. The evaluation of impairment is based on indices of biological integrity from the Maryland Biological Stream Survey (MBSS). We applied logistic regression to quantify how the biotic integrity of streams at a local scale is affected by cumulative effects resulting from catchment land uses, point sources, and nearby transmission line rights-of-way. Indicators for land use were developed from the remote sensing National Land Cover Data and applied at different scales. We determined that the risk of local impairment in nontidal streams rapidly increases with increased urban land use in the catchment area. The average likelihood of failing biocriteria doubled with every 10% points increment in urban land, thus an increase in urban land use from 0 to 20% quadruples the risk of impairment. For the basins evaluated in this study, catchments with more than 40–50% urban land use had greater than 80% probability of failing biocriteria, on average. Inclusion of rights-of-way and point sources in the model did not significantly improve the fit for this data set, most likely because of their low numbers. The overall results indicate that our predictive modeling approach can help pinpoint stream ecosystems experiencing or vulnerable to degradation. 相似文献
103.
Stin OC Carnahan A Singh R Powell J Furuno JP Dorsey A Silbergeld E Williams HN Morris JG 《Environmental monitoring and assessment》2003,81(1-3):327-336
Molecular methods, including DNA probes, were used to identify and enumerate pathogenic Vibrio species in the Chesapeake Bay; our data indicated that Vibrio vulnificus exhibits seasonal fluctuations in number. Our work included a characterization of total microbial communities from the Bay; development of microarrays that identify and quantify the diversity of those communities; and observation of temporal changes in those communities. To identify members of the microbial community, we amplified the 16S rDNA gene from community DNA isolated from a biofilm sample collected from the Chesapeake Bay in February, 2000. The resultant 75 sequences were 95% or more similar to 7 species including two recently described Shewanella species, baltica and frigidimarina, that have not been previously isolated from the Chesapeake. When the genera of bacteria from biofilm after culturing are compared to those detected by subcloning amplified 16S fragments from community DNA, the cultured sample exhibited a strong bias. In oysters collected in February, the most common bacteria were previously unknown. Based on our 16S findings, we are developing microarrays to detect these and other microbial species in these estuarine communities. The microarrays will detect each species using four distinct loci, with the multiple loci serving as an internal control. The accuracy of the microarray will be measured using sentinel species such as Aeromonas species, Escherichia coli, and Vibrio vulnificus. Using microarrays, it should be possible to determine the annual fluctuations of bacterial species (culturable and non-culturable, pathogenic and non-pathogenic). The data may be applied to understanding patterns of environmental change; assessing the health of the Bay; and evaluating the risk of human illness associated with exposure to and ingestion of water and shellfish. 相似文献
104.
Air pollution problems in developing countries have gained larger fraction in the last decade especially due to non functioning and non implementation of effective air pollutioncontrol devices in industries. In industrial wastewater management, adequate treatability studies are conducted to arrive at a techno-economic treatment option. However no suchstudies were done for reducing air pollution or emission fromindustries until now in India. Little information was availableabout such studies in other countries. This article provides information about a novel technique known asflue gas treatability studies and to undertake such studies, a pilot scale system is installed in Air Pollution Control Divisionof M/s National Environmental Engineering research Institute, NEERI, Nagpur-20, India. This study is a tool for techno-economicselection of air pollution control systems specially for small/medium scale industrial emissions. 相似文献
105.
IMPACTS OF VISITORS ON SOIL AND VEGETATION OF THE RECREATIONAL AREA “NACIMIENTO DEL RÍO MUNDO” (CASTILLA-LA MANCHA, SPAIN) 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Andrés-Abellán M Del Alamo JB Landete-Castillejos T López-Serrano FR García-Morote FA Del Cerro-Barja A 《Environmental monitoring and assessment》2005,101(1-3):55-67
This study examines the effects of recreational use on the soil and vegetation at a site of ecological importance (Nacimiento del Río Mundo, Albacete, Spain). The most visited sites showed increased soil compaction of approximately 50%, bare ground increase to 61 ± 10% and a decrease in richness (from 25 ± 2 to 15 ± 2 species), diversity (from 4.0 ± 0.1 to 2.7 ± 0.4) and stratification of plant species (from 80 ± 11 to 21 ± 4%). The most visited sites had 90% less plant species as compared to the least visited. Intense use was associated with the presence of nitrophilous plant and vegetal species with a morphology adapted to heavy trampling. The recreational areas showed a distribution pattern of impact radiating outwards from the most used and degraded point. At the most visited point, Los Chorros (the spring of the river), the impact radiated outwards for about 20 m. A pilot experiment examining the effects of one-year restriction to visitors for access to a formerly impacted area showed a plant cover increase by anthropic and not by native species of 57 percent units. 相似文献
106.
Combating desertification in natural rangelands has recently become a priority in large parts of southern Africa. Rangeland
managers, farmers, scientists, conservationists and land users have been applying a variety of restoration technologies to
address this problem. Bush encroachment, as part of the desertification process, involves the natural replacement of the herbaceous
plant cover by undesirable problem woody species. The active and passive restoration technologies that are applied, are mainly
based on indigenous knowledge and include the chemical, mechanical or manual reclamation of unproductive rangelands, as well
as the combating of woody and alien species encroachment. Indigenous practices and knowledge play a major role in the effectiveness
and success rate of these technologies. This project faces the challenge of bringing together both local and scientific knowledge
in a single user-friendly, computerised Decision Support System (DSS) which is directly accessible by land users to support
them in the process of decision making, concerning the combating of desertification. Case studies from central and northern
Namibia were used to combine qualitative and quantitative data to develop this Decision Support System. The DSS currently
consists of two databases and an expert system, which evaluates the results of land users’ management practices, and provides
easily accessible information and advice for participants in the system, based on the incorporated data. The DSS is also linked
to national and international web sites and databases to offer a wider range of information on technologies concerning agricultural
and conservation practices. 相似文献
107.
Soft bottom benthic organisms especially polychaetes are known to adapt as r or k selected strategies to different gradients of pollution. This will result in changes of benthic community structure from that of normal structure. There are a number of techniques to assess the impact of pollution on benthic community structure. Hence, to test this hypotheses some of the univariate and multivariate techniques were applied to soft bottom macro-invertebrates data of coastal waters of Mangalore, central west coast of India, a hot-spot area. Univariate techniques such as Pearson Rosenberg Model (PRM), abundance biomass comparison curve (ABC), geometrical class distribution, dominance-diversity curve, benthic community structure indices and multivariate techniques such as cluster classification, multidimensional scaling (MDS) and principal component analysis (PCA) were used to discriminate and diagnose the disturbance among the sites. Effectiveness and applicability of some of the above techniques are highlighted and discussed with the present set of data for environmental impact assessment studies. 相似文献
108.
Virendra Misra Farhat N. Jaffery P. N. Viswanathan 《Environmental monitoring and assessment》1994,29(1):29-40
The sources of toxic xenobiotics and different factors such as ecological diversity, differences in comparative anatomy, physiology and biochemistry, food chain variation, interrelationship within species and life span, etc., are considered during risk assessment of pollutants, and their impact on aquatic ecotoxicology is identified. A fugacity and multimedia compartment model is suggested, based on toxicodynamic (toxicity of the chemical) and toxicokinetic (metabolism of the chemical) considerations to predict and screen the behaviour of pollutants quantitatively in the aquatic environment. The significance of the risk analysis approach in anticipatory actions and regulation of pollution levels is discussed. 相似文献
109.
D. N. McNelis 《Environmental monitoring and assessment》1982,2(1-2):43-56
Although exposure assessments cannot be completed remotely, remote sensing techniques provide an invaluable adjunct in exposure monitoring programs. Exposure can be defined as the summation over time, in all media, of the amount of a pollutant available at the exchange boundaries of the receptor during a specified period. This paper describes a few remote monitoring techniques that provide direct measurement input into an exposure assessment and several that furnish quantitative or qualitative information leading to decisions regarding how to monitor, such that the source-exposure-dose relationships can be fully defined. Two general classes of remote sensing systems are included in this discussion-passive and active. Passive systems depend on a measurement of the energy reflected or emitted by a target and active systems use an energy source, e.g., a laser to perform the environmental interrogation. Airborne as well as ground-based remote monitoring measurements or systems are also considered in this paper. 相似文献
110.
P. M. Lutz Selena Bauer N. L. Gale J. Hewett P. E. Phillips F. M. Looney H. Bengsch 《Environmental geochemistry and health》1994,16(3-4):179-189
Lead has been found to depress the immune system in animal studies at levels far below those responsible for overt toxicity. Literature studies in animal systems most clearly showed an effect of lead on response to a specific immunogenic stimulus. Data are sparse concerning the effects of lead on the immune system in the human population at greatest risk for exposure-children up to six years of age. This portion of the Phase I study reports concentrations of IgG, IgM, IgA, and IgE, as well as antibody titers to the specific antigenic stimuli provided by the vaccines against diphtheria, tetanus, and Rubella. The study population consisted of a group of 193 children, ages 9 months to 6 years, who participate in the WIC (Women, Infants and Children) and Lead Poisoning Prevention Programs in the urban area of Springfield-Greene County Missouri. Blood lead levels ranged from 1 to 50 g dL–1. Total Ig levels were determined and the data were analysed. No consistent significant differences were observed among the risk categories in the five age groups examined. A single Ig class in each of three age groups showed apparent significant differences among the various risk categories, but these differences were not correlated with blood lead. An analysis of specific antibody titers to diphtheria, tetanus, and Rubella was performed. Regression analyses of current data in Phase I of this study suggest a detrimental effect of lead on the antibody titres to diphtheria and Rubella. 相似文献