Probabilistic impacts of climate change on flood frequency using response surfaces II: Scotland

This paper uses a sensitivity framework approach to look at the probabilistic impacts of climate change on 20-year return period flood peaks, by applying a set of typical response surfaces alongside the probabilistic UK Climate Projections (UKCP09) for 10 river-basin regions over Scotland. The first paper of the pair used the same approach for 10 river-basin regions over England and Wales. This paper develops the methodology for Scotland, by first enabling better estimation of the response type of Scottish catchments. Then, as for England and Wales, the potential range of impacts is shown for different types of catchment in each river-basin region in Scotland, and regional average impact ranges are estimated. Results show clear differences in impacts between catchments of different types and between regions. The Argyll and West Highland regions show the highest impacts, while the North-East Scotland region shows the lowest impacts. The overall ranges are generally smaller for Scotland than England and Wales.     

Spatial assessment of climate change effects on crop suitability for major plantation crops in Sri Lanka

Climate change is the main global challenge of this century; it is therefore imperative to identify its effects on agriculture in developing countries. This research makes spatial assessment of climate change effect on major plantation crops in Sri Lanka, with emphasis on crop suitability of tea, rubber, and coconut. Geo-referenced maps of spatial and temporal changes in crop suitability and production potentials are generated and compared. Data pertaining to six agro-ecological zones under the study area are analyzed for a period of 1980–2007. Crop suitability maps are generated amalgamating yield maps and climatic factors maps using AHP in multi-criteria analysis under two time frames of 1980–1992 and 1993–2007. Percent change in crop suitability and crop yield classes is calculated based on five crop suitability and five crop yield classes during two time frames. Dynamics of climatic parameters and crop yield are recognized using geo-referenced maps. The suitability maps of the two time frames are compared to identify the changes with each crop in conjunction with changes in the prevailing climate and yield. Geographic shift of suitability, yield, and climate classes are examined. Net gain or loss in crop production is quantified. Long-term annual rainfall significantly decreased in mid-country wet zone, whereas the mean temperature of the study area increased by 1.4°C. Results clearly showed that the climate and yield can be meaningfully related to the crop suitability and management.     

Health and environmental costs of pesticide use in vegetable farming in Nepal

There is a growing concern of pesticide risks to human health, natural environment and ecosystems. Many previous economic valuations have accounted health aspects or environmental components, but rarely combined; thus, overall risk assessment is partially distorted. The study, conducted close to the capital of Nepal, addressed the health effects of pesticides on small-scale farmers and evaluated the monetary risks of pesticide use on human health and environmental resources. We also aim to establish the relationships among valuation methods. The paper adopts cost of illness, defensive expenditure and contingent valuation willingness to pay approach. The study concluded that the methods used for valuing pesticide risks to human and environmental health are theoretically consistent. The exposed individuals are likely to bear significant economic costs of exposures depending on geographical location, pesticide use magnitudes and frequency. Individuals are willing to pay between 53 and 79% more than the existing pesticide price to protect their health and environment. The integrated pest management training is less likely to reduce health costs of pesticide exposure, although it leads to higher investment in safety measures.     

Disaster risk reduction in developing countries: costs, benefits and institutions

Some 60,000 people worldwide die annually in natural disasters, mostly due to the collapse of buildings in earthquakes, and primarily in the developing world. This is despite the fact that engineering solutions exist that can eliminate almost completely the risk of such deaths. Why is this? The solutions are expensive and technically demanding, so their cost–benefit ratio often is unfavourable as compared to other interventions. Nonetheless, there are various public disaster risk reduction interventions that are highly cost‐effective. That such interventions frequently remain unimplemented or ineffectively executed points to a role for issues of political economy. Building regulations in developing countries appear to have limited impact in many cases, perhaps because of inadequate capacity and corruption. Public construction often is of low quality, perhaps for similar reasons. This suggests the need for approaches that emphasise simple and limited disaster risk regulation covering only the most at‐risk structures—and that, preferably, non‐experts can monitor—as well as numerous transparency and oversight mechanisms for public construction projects.     

Some Effects of Atmospheric Fluoride on Plant Metabolism

Leaves of Tendergreen bean plants exposed to atmospheric fluoride concentrations in the range 1.7 to 7.6 μg/m³ showed increased levels of enolase and catalase activity and decreased levels of pyruvate and α-ketoglutarate. Phosphoenolpyruvate carboxylase activity and oxalacetate were not affected. The leaves of Milo maize plants exposed to 5.0 μg F/m³ showed increased levels of enolase and pyruvate kinase activity and a decreased level of pyruvate. Oxalacetate and α-ketoglutarate levels were not affected. Catalase activity was increased, then decreased by IIF fumigation. The changes induced by HF were greatest six to 10 days after the start of fumigation and disappeared or decreased in magnitude during the post-fumigation period.     

An Air Pollution Index Based on Sulfur Dioxide and Smoke Shade

First-prize winner in the student paper competition conducted by the Mid-Atlantic States Section of the Air Pollution Control Association was Marvin H. Green, a graduate student at Drexel Institute of Technology and assistant chief of Philadelphia’s Air Pollution Control Section. A condensation of his paper follows.     

Investigation to Determine the Possible Need for a Regulation on Organic Compound Emissions from Stationary Sources in the San Francisco Bay Area

The problem of an investigation of the need for a regulation on organic compound emissions in the San Francisco Bay Area can be divided into two major areas: 1. Is there a need for a regulation on organic compound emissions? What is the extent of photochemical smog effects? How much control is necessary to achieve the desired effects?

2. (2) If the need exists for an organic compound regulation, can a performance type regulation be written for all types of organic compound emissions? Must the regulation be directed toward specific industries or types of emissions? Can the regulation be adequately enforced—both practically and legally?

This paper will describe the studies undertaken by the District Staff to answer the first set of questions. Work covering the second group of questions is now under investigation.