Lack-of-fit tests for assessing mean structures for continuous dose-response data

We review a range of lack-of-fit tests suitable for assessing the appropriateness of the mean function in dose-response models. The review encompasses both well-known tests and new tests based on recent developments in statistics, which we have extended to the dose-response case. We argue that the classical methods are inadequate in certain situations, where the new tests may be applied. Power comparisons are carried out by means of extensive simulation studies, covering both designs with and without replicates at small and large sample sizes. Three datasets from dose-response applications illustrate differences and similarities between the tests. The results suggest that the new tests perform better and exhibit a wider applicability.     

Pesticide concentrations in agricultural storm drainage inlets of a small Swiss catchment

Agricultural pesticides transported to surface waters pose a major risk for aquatic ecosystems. Modelling studies indicate that the inlets of agricultural storm drainage systems can considerably increase the connectivity of surface runoff and pesticides to surface waters. These model results have however not yet been validated with field measurements. In this study, we measured discharge and concentrations of 51 pesticides in four out of 158 storm drainage inlets of a small Swiss agricultural catchment (2.8 km²) and in the receiving stream. For this, we performed an event-triggered sampling during 19 rain events and collected plot-specific pesticide application data. Our results show that agricultural storm drainage inlets strongly influence surface runoff and pesticide transport in the study catchment. The concentrations of single pesticides in inlets amounted up to 62 µg/L. During some rain events, transport through single inlets caused more than 10% of the stream load of certain pesticides. An extrapolation to the entire catchment suggests that during selected events on average 30 to 70% of the load in the stream was transported through inlets. Pesticide applications on fields with surface runoff or spray drift potential to inlets led to increased concentrations in the corresponding inlets. Overall, this study corroborates the relevance of such inlets for pesticide transport by establishing a connectivity between fields and surface waters, and by their potential to deliver substantial pesticide loads to surface waters.

     

Phenological sequences reveal aggregate life history response to climatic warming

Climatic warming is associated with organisms breeding earlier in the season than is typical for their species. In some species, however, response to warming is more complex than a simple advance in the timing of all life history events preceding reproduction. Disparities in the extent to which different components of the reproductive phenology of organisms vary with climatic warming indicate that not all life history events are equally responsive to environmental variation. Here, we propose that our understanding of phenological response to climate change can be improved by considering entire sequences of events comprising the aggregate life histories of organisms preceding reproduction. We present results of a two-year warming experiment conducted on 33 individuals of three plant species inhabiting a low-arctic site. Analysis of phenological sequences of three key events for each species revealed how the aggregate life histories preceding reproduction responded to warming, and which individual events exerted the greatest influence on aggregate life history variation. For alpine chickweed (Cerastium alpinum), warming elicited a shortening of the duration of the emergence stage by 2.5 days on average, but the aggregate life history did not differ between warmed and ambient plots. For gray willow (Salix glauca), however, all phenological events monitored occurred earlier on warmed than on ambient plots, and warming reduced the aggregate life history of this species by 22 days on average. Similarly, in dwarf birch (Betula nana), warming advanced flower bud set, blooming, and fruit set and reduced the aggregate life history by 27 days on average. Our approach provides important insight into life history responses of many organisms to climate change and other forms of environmental variation. Such insight may be compromised by considering changes in individual phenological events in isolation.     

Condition-dependent individual decision-making determines cyprinid partial migration

Partial migration is a common phenomenon among many animals and occurs in many types of ecosystems. Understanding the mechanisms behind partial migration is of major importance for the understanding of population dynamics and, eventually, ecosystem processes. We studied the effects of food availability on the seasonal partial migration of cyprinid fish from a lake to connected streams during winter by the use of passive telemetry. Fish with increased access to food were found to migrate in higher proportion, earlier in the season, and to reside in the streams for a longer period compared to fish with decreased access to food. Furthermore, fewer unfed migrants returned to the lake, indicating higher overwinter mortality. Our results suggest that individual fish trade off safety from predation and access to food differently depending on their body condition, which results in a condition-dependent partial migration. Hence, our main conclusion is that individual decision-making is based on assessment of own condition which offers a mechanistic explanation to partial migration. Moreover, this may be of high importance for understanding population responses to environmental variation as well as ecosystem dynamics and stability.     

Spatial–temporal pattern of bluefin tuna (Thunnus thynnus L. 1758) gonad maturation across the Mediterranean Sea

Atlantic bluefin tuna (BFT; Thunnus thynnus) is a migrating species straddling the North Atlantic Ocean and Mediterranean Sea. It is assumed that this species is divided into a western and an eastern stock, which spawn in the Gulf of Mexico and the Mediterranean Sea, respectively. To learn more about the reproductive behavior of the eastern BFT stock, we tracked gonadal development in adult fish that were sampled between April and July during three consecutive years (2003–2005). Sampling campaigns were carried out using common fishing methods at selected locations within the Mediterranean Sea, namely Levantine Sea, Malta, and Balearic Islands. An additional sampling point, Barbate, was situated northwest of the Straits of Gibraltar along the Atlantic coast. Morphometric parameters such as the total body mass (M _B) and the weights of the gonads (M _G) were recorded, and the respective gonadosomatic index (GSI) values were calculated. The data collected revealed two important trends: (1) GSI values are higher in fish caught in the eastern rather than the western locations across the Mediterranean Sea, and (2) the GSI reaches maximum values between late May and early June in Levantine Sea (eastern Mediterranean Sea), and only 2 and 4 weeks later in the central (Malta) and western (Balearic Islands) locations, respectively. The advanced gonadal development in BFT correlates well with higher sea surface temperatures. Our findings also distinguish the northern Levantine Sea BFT population (mean M _B 78.41 ± 4.13 kg), and the Barbate BFT population with the greatest M _B (all fish sampled > 100 kg). These data reflect a situation in which the eastern Mediterranean basin may function as a habitat for young BFT, until they gain a larger M _B and are able to move to the Atlantic Ocean. However, the existence of genetically discrete BFT populations in the Mediterranean Sea cannot be ruled out.     

NEATS: A Network Economics Approach to Trophic Systems

The main principle of the economic approach to a trophic system we propose here lies in assuming that there is a transfer of food along a path between a prey and a predator if, for the predator, the benefits are greater than costs of predation on this path. Conversely, if the costs exceed the benefits, there are no flows. This trade-off, considered all along the food chains of an ecosystem, together with ecological processes (assimilation, somatic maintenance) results in a model coupling mass balance equations (biological constraints) and complementarity principles (Walras’ law). Here is the core of the Network Economics Approach to Trophic Systems (NEATS).     

Incentive compatibility tests of choice experiment value elicitation questions

This paper uses laboratory experiments with induced values to address fundamental issues related to the incentive compatibility of choice experiment value elicitation questions. In particular, we compare two- versus three-option choice sets and the effect of using alternative provision rules, including one where the outcome is influenced by both participant and “regulator” votes. We find the overall proportion of choices that are inconsistent with induced preferences is rather low. However, there are more deviations from induced preferences for two-option choice sets, and for alternatives to a simple plurality vote implementation rule. A multinomial probit analysis of choices in tandem with a mixed logit welfare analysis suggests there is a statistically significant but modest degree of bias towards selecting the status quo option.     

Phylogenetic relationships of coral-associated gobies (Teleostei,Gobiidae) from the Red Sea based on mitochondrial DNA data

Bryaninops, Gobiodon, Paragobiodon and Pleurosicya are the most abundant genera of coral-associated gobies. These genera are adapted to live among coral, while other small reef gobies (e.g., the genus Eviota) show no obligate association with this living substrate. Thirteen coral-associated species and two Eviota species were sampled from different regions of the Red Sea, along with four populations/species of Gobiodon from the Indian and western Pacific Oceans. A molecular phylogenetic analysis was performed using partial sequences of 12S rRNA, 16S rRNA and cytochrome b mitochondrial genes, 1,199 base pairs in total. Several clades were consistently resolved in neighbor joining-, maximum parsimony-, maximum likelihood and Bayesian analyses. While each of the four genera Gobiodon, Paragobiodon, Bryaninops and Pleurosicya proved to be monophyletic, their relative position in the phylogeny did not support an emergence of coral-associated gobiids as a monophyletic assemblage. Instead, two separate monophyletic sub-groups were discovered, the first comprising Gobiodon and Paragobiodon, and the second Bryaninops and Pleurosicya. Our molecular phylogenetic examinations also revealed one unassigned species of Gobiodon from the Maldives as a distinct species and confirmed three putative and yet unassigned species from the Red Sea. Moreover, the uniformly black colored species of Gobiodon are not monophyletic but have evolved independently within two distinct species groups. Genetic distances were large in particular within Pleurosicya and Eviota. Estimated divergence times suggest that coral-associated gobies have diversified in parallel to their preferred host corals. In particular, divergence times of Gobiodon species closely match those estimated for their typical host coral genus Acropora.     

(Z)-Dodec-3-en-1-ol, a common major component of the trail-following pheromone in the termites Kalotermitidae

(Z)-Dodec-3-en-1-ol has been identified as the major component of the trail-following pheromone of nine species of Kalotermitidae belonging to six different genera, suggesting that this compound represents a common signal in this family of termites. The homogeneous nature of trail-following pheromones of Kalotermitidae well agrees with the monophyly of this family. It also supports the postulated position of this family as a sister group of the Rhinotermitidae and Termitidae, which also secrete C12-alcohols as trail-following pheromones. The significance of a trail pheromone in termites of the ‘one-piece’ life type, which spend their whole life within the same piece of wood, is discussed.     

Comparative study of the fate and mobility of metals discharged in mining and urban effluents using sequential extractions on suspended solids

The fate, bioavailability and environmental impacts of metals discharged in municipal and mining wastewater discharge will depend to a large extent on chemical speciation and distribution. Previous studies on metal bioaccumulation have shown that total metal concentrations are not a good predictor of bioavailability in the dispersion plumes of municipal effluents. The objective of this study was to determine the solid phase speciation of metals in surface waters receiving urban and mining effluents in order to assess their fate and relative mobility in the receiving environment. Suspended particulate matter was sampled using sediment traps at several sites downstream of effluent outfall plumes as well as at reference upstream sites. Particulate metal in operationally defined fractions—exchangeable/carbonates, reducible, oxidisable and residual—were determined in suspended particulate matter with a series of selective chemical extractions. Metal enrichment in suspended particles was generally observed in both mining and urban effluent discharges. When compared to its receiving environment, the mining effluent appeared to release more particulate metals (Cu, Fe, Zn) in the most reactive fractions (i.e. exchangeable/carbonates + reducible forms, 23–43%), while other released metals, such as Cd and Mn, were predominantly in the least reactive forms (i.e., oxidisable + residual, 73–97%). In contrast, the reactivity of all particulate metals, with the exception of Mn, from the urban effluent was much higher, with up to 65, 42, 30 and 43% for Cd, Cu, Fe and Zn, respectively, in the two most reactive fractions. As expected in effluent dispersion plumes, parameters such as the organic carbon, Fe oxide and carbonate contents have specific effects on the partitioning of several trace metals, particularly Cd, Cu and Zn. Our results indicated that the relative distributions of metals among geochemical fractions varied in the effluent receiving waters where organic carbon and Fe oxides appeared as the most important parameters. This could therefore decrease the exposure for aquatic organisms that are exposed to those contaminated sediments as well as the risk to human health.