Demonstrating Attainment of the Air Quality Standards: Integration of Observations and Model Predictions into the Probabilistic Framework

ABSTRACT

This paper introduces an integrated observational-modeling approach to transform the deterministic nature of attainment demonstrations of the National Ambient Air Quality Standard (NAAQS) into the probabilistic framework. While the methods presented here can be used to address any air quality standard that is based on extreme values, this paper focuses on the application to the 1-hr and 8-hr NAAQS for ozone. Extreme value statistics and resampling techniques are applied to estimate the probability of exceeding the NAAQS for both 1-hr and 8-hr ozone concentrations. Within the integrated observation-modeling analysis approach, we show that the model-to-model differences in the predicted responses to emission reductions are smaller than the model-to-model differences in predicted absolute ozone concentrations. We illustrate that the emission reductions stemming from a real-world emission control strategy would substantially reduce the probability of exceeding the NAAQS over a large portion of the eastern United States, especially for the 8-hr average ozone concentrations.     

Application and Evaluation of Two Air Quality Models for Particulate Matter for a Southeastern U.S. Episode

Abstract

The Models-3 Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) Modeling System and the Particulate Matter Comprehensive Air Quality Model with extensions (PMCAMx) were applied to simulate the period June 29–July 10, 1999, of the Southern Oxidants Study episode with two nested horizontal grid sizes: a coarse resolution of 32 km and a fine resolution of 8 km. The predicted spatial variations of ozone (O₃), particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter less than or equal to 2.5 μm (PM_2.5), and particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter less than or equal to 10 μm (PM₁₀) by both models are similar in rural areas but differ from one another significantly over some urban/suburban areas in the eastern and southern United States, where PMCAMx tends to predict higher values of O₃ and PM than CMAQ. Both models tend to predict O₃ values that are higher than those observed. For observed O₃ values above 60 ppb, O₃ performance meets the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's criteria for CMAQ with both grids and for PMCAMx with the fine grid only. It becomes unsatisfactory for PMCAMx and marginally satisfactory for CMAQ for observed O₃ values above 40 ppb.

Both models predict similar amounts of sulfate (SO₄ ^2?) and organic matter, and both predict SO₄ ^2? to be the largest contributor to PM_2.5. PMCAMx generally predicts higher amounts of ammonium (NH₄ ⁺), nitrate (NO₃ ^?), and black carbon (BC) than does CMAQ. PM performance for CMAQ is generally consistent with that of other PM models, whereas PMCAMx predicts higher concentrations of NO₃ ^?,NH₄ ⁺, and BC than observed, which degrades its performance. For PM₁₀ and PM_2.5 predictions over the southeastern U.S. domain, the ranges of mean normalized gross errors (MNGEs) and mean normalized bias are 37–43% and –33–4% for CMAQ and 50–59% and 7–30% for PMCAMx. Both models predict the largest MNGEs for NO₃ ^? (98–104% for CMAQ, 138–338% for PMCAMx). The inaccurate NO₃ ^? predictions by both models may be caused by the inaccuracies in the ammonia emission inventory and the uncertainties in the gas/particle partitioning under some conditions. In addition to these uncertainties, the significant PM overpredictions by PMCAMx may be attributed to the lack of wet removal for PM and a likely underprediction in the vertical mixing during the daytime.     

Modeling Atmospheric Mercury Deposition in the Vicinity of Power Plants

Abstract

Two mathematical models of the atmospheric fate and transport of mercury (Hg), an Eulerian grid–based model and a Gaussian plume model, are used to calculate the atmospheric deposition of Hg in the vicinity (i.e., within 50 km) of five coal–fired power plants. The former is applied using two different horizontal resolutions: coarse (84 km) and fine (16.7 km). More than 96% of the power plant Hg emissions are calculated with the plume model to be transported beyond 50 km from the plants. The grid–based model predicts a lower fraction to be transported beyond 50 km: >91% with a coarse resolution and >95% with a fine resolution. The contribution of the power plant emissions to total Hg deposition within a radius of 50 km from the plants is calculated to be <8% with the plume model, <14% with the Eulerian model with a coarse resolution, and <10% with the Eulerian model with a fine resolution. The Eulerian grid–based model predicts greater local impacts than the plume model because of artificially enhanced vertical dispersion; the former predicts about twice as much Hg deposition as the latter when the area considered is commensurate with the resolution of the grid–based model. If one compares the local impacts for an area that is significantly less than the grid–based model resolution, then the grid–based model may predict lower local deposition than the plume model, because two compensating errors affect the results obtained with the grid–based model: initial dilution of the power plant emissions within one or more grid cells and enhanced vertical mixing to the ground.     

Impact and cost of measures to reduce nutrient emissions from wastewater and storm water treatment in the German Elbe river basin

As a leading nutrient emitter, wastewater infrastructure harbors significant technical potentials to reduce the water-polluting emissions of phosphorus and nitrogen into the Elbe river basin. From the viewpoint of the central infrastructure, the effluent threshold value of urban wastewater treatment plants could be lowered further by advanced use of denitrification and membrane filtration, and storm water overflows of wastewater and contaminated rainwater from sewers could be treated in retention soil filters. In addition, small-scale wastewater treatment plants, infiltration and reducing or unsealing impervious surfaces could be used as decentralized elements of wastewater or storm water treatment. It can be shown that if the most advanced measures were applied in all wastewater-relevant areas, up to 60% of the phosphorus and 37% of the nitrogen emissions could be avoided. Alongside central wastewater treatment plants, small-scale treatment plants prove to be the most effective and cost-efficient option. To achieve an ecologically acceptable state of the Elbe, however, it may be necessary to employ more costly measures as well.     

Responses of a soil bacterium, Pseudomonas chlororaphis O6 to commercial metal oxide nanoparticles compared with responses to metal ions

The toxicity of commercially-available CuO and ZnO nanoparticles (NPs) to pathogenic bacteria was compared for a beneficial rhizosphere isolate, Pseudomonas chlororaphis O6. The NPs aggregated, released ions to different extents under the conditions used for bacterial exposure, and associated with bacterial cell surface. Bacterial surface charge was neutralized by NPs, dependent on pH. The CuO NPs were more toxic than the ZnO NPs. The negative surface charge on colloids of extracellular polymeric substances (EPS) was reduced by Cu ions but not by CuO NPs; the EPS protected cells from CuO NPs-toxicity. CuO NPs-toxicity was eliminated by a Cu ion chelator, suggesting that ion release was involved. Neither NPs released alkaline phosphatase from the cells’ periplasm, indicating minimal outer membrane damage. Accumulation of intracellular reactive oxygen species was correlated with CuO NPs lethality. Environmental deposition of NPs could create niches for ion release, with impacts on susceptible soil microbes.     

Mechanisms of purple moor-grass (Molinia caerulea) encroachment in dry heathland ecosystems with chronic nitrogen inputs

We analysed growth strategies (biomass allocation, nutrient sequestration and allocation) of heather (Calluna vulgaris) and purple moor-grass (Molinia caerulea) seedlings in monocultures and mixtures in relation to N, P, and N + P fertilisation in a greenhouse experiment in order to simulate a heath’s pioneer phase under high airborne nitrogen (N) loads. N fertilisation increased the total biomass of both species in monocultures. In mixtures, M. caerulea sequestered about 65% of the N applied, while C. vulgaris suffered from N shortage (halving of the total biomass). Thus, in mixtures only M. caerulea will benefit from airborne N loads, and competition will become increasingly asymmetric with increasing N availability. Our results demonstrate that the heath’s pioneer phase is the crucial tipping point at which the competitive vigour of M. caerulea (high belowground allocation, efficient use of belowground resources, shortened reproductive cycles) induces a shift to dominance of grasses under increased N availability.     

Photophysical and photochemical properties of the pharmaceutical compound salbutamol in aqueous solutions

Salbutamol is a potent β₂-adrenergic receptor agonist widely used in the treatment of bronchial asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. An increasing number of studies have detected salbutamol in natural water systems worldwide. Studies have shown that sunlight degrades salbutamol resulting in the formation of products; some showing higher toxicity to bacteria Vibrio fischeri than the parent compound. In this contribution, steady-state absorption and emission techniques, high-performance liquid chromatography, and transient absorption spectroscopy are used to investigate the photochemistry of salbutamol in aqueous buffer solutions at controlled pH values. Ground- and excited-state calculations that include solvent effects are performed to guide the interpretation of the experimental results. Salbutamol is sensitive to UVB light absorption in the pH range from 3 to 12, forming products that absorb light at longer wavelengths than the parent compound. Quantum yields of degradation reveal that the deprotonated species is 10-fold more photo-active than the protonated species. In line with this result, the fluorescence quantum yield of the protonated species is more than an order of magnitude higher than that of the deprotonated species. Transient absorption spectroscopy shows that population of the triplet state occurs with a rate constant of 7.1 × 10⁸ s⁻¹ in the protonated species, while a rate constant of 1.7 × 10¹⁰ s⁻¹ is measured for the deprotonated species. While degradation of the deprotonated species is not affected by the presence of molecular oxygen, a twofold increase in the photodegradation yield of the protonated species in air-saturated conditions is observed.     

Distribution of antidepressants and their metabolites in brook trout exposed to municipal wastewaters before and after ozone treatment--evidence of biological effects

This study examined the tissues distribution of selected serotonin reuptake inhibitors (SSRIs) in brook trout exposed for 3 months to continuous flow-through primary-treated effluent before and after ozone treatment. A reliable analytical method was developed for the quantification of trace amounts of antidepressants in small tissue homogenate extracts. Levels of six antidepressants and four of their N-desmethyl metabolites were determined using liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry. Significant amounts of the SSRIs were found in fish tissue-in decreasing order: liver>brain>muscle. Sertraline and its metabolite desmethylsertraline were the predominant substances observed in most tissues (0.04-10.3 ng g(-1)). However, less SSRIs (0.08-1.17 ng g(-1)) were bioaccumulated in the ozonated effluent. The early molecular effects of these SSRIs on the Na/K-dependent ATPase pump activity in brain synaptosomes where also investigated in vitro and in fish exposed to the municipal effluents. With respect to their potential biological effects, in vitro exposure to selected SSRIs induced a reduction of the brain Na/K-ATPase activity in synaptosomes in a dose-dependent manner. Results showed that Na/K-ATPase activity was readily inhibited by exposure to municipal effluent before and, to a lesser extent, after ozone treatment. Moreover, the Na/K-ATPase activity was significantly and negatively correlated with brain tissue concentrations of fluoxetine (r=-0.57; p<0.03), desmethylsertraline (r=-0.84; p<0.001), and sertraline (r=-0.82; p<0.001). The present study reveals that SSRIs are readily available in fish, biologically active and corroborates previous findings on the serotonergic properties of municipal effluents to aquatic organisms.     

Quantification of nitrate leaching from German forest ecosystems by use of a process oriented biogeochemical model

Simulations with the process oriented Forest-DNDC model showed reasonable to good agreement with observations of soil water contents of different soil layers, annual amounts of seepage water and approximated rates of nitrate leaching at 79 sites across Germany. Following site evaluation, Forest-DNDC was coupled to a GIS to assess nitrate leaching from German forest ecosystems for the year 2000. At national scale leaching rates varied in a range of 0–>80 kg NO₃–N ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹ (mean 5.5 kg NO₃–N ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹). A comparison of regional simulations with the results of a nitrate inventory study for Bavaria showed that measured and simulated percentages for different nitrate leaching classes (0–5 kg N ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹:66% vs. 74%, 5–15 kg N ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹:20% vs. 20%, >15 kg N ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹:14% vs. 6%) were in good agreement. Mean nitrate concentrations in seepage water ranged between 0 and 23 mg NO₃–N l⁻¹.     

Temporal analysis of PM10 in Metropolitan Monterrey, México

The Monterrey Metropolitan Area (MMA) is the third largest city in Mexico. Few studies have been carried out regarding its air pollution. The aim of this study was to analyze the temporal behavior of PM10 (particulate matter < or =10 microm in aerodynamic diameter). Data reported by the "Sistema Integral de Monitoreo Ambiental" (Integrated Environmental Monitoring System) network from 2006 to 2008 were used. PM10 levels were compared among the stations by year, season, and day of week. A bootstrap technique was used to obtain subsamples to which Student's t test and ANOVA were applied. PM10 levels were high and exceeded the annual limit of 50 microg/m3 set up by the Mexican standard Norma Oficial Mexicana NOM-025-SSA1-1993. These levels could have serious health effects. The southwest zone of MMA had the highest levels of PM10 during the period studied. Winter was the most polluted season, and summer was the least polluted season. Thursday and Friday were the most polluted days, and Sunday was the least polluted day. The hours with the highest levels of PM10 were 8:00 to 10:00 a.m., whereas nighttime hours were the cleanest.