Using fuzzy set theory to address the uncertainty of susceptibility to drought

This paper presents the technical aspects of a new methodology for assessing the susceptibility of society to drought. The methodology consists of a combination of inference modelling and fuzzy logic applications. Four steps are followed: (1) model input variables are selected—these variables reflect the main factors influencing susceptibility in a social group, population or region, (2) fuzzification—the uncertainties of the input variables are made explicit by representing them as ‘fuzzy membership functions’, (3) inference modelling—the input variables are used to construct a model made up of linguistic rules, and (4) defuzzification—results from the model in linguistic form are translated into numerical form, also through the use of fuzzy membership functions. The disadvantages and advantages of this methodology became apparent when it was applied to the assessment of susceptibility from three disciplinary perspectives: Disadvantages include the difficulty in validating results and the subjectivity involved with specifying fuzzy membership functions and the rules of the inference model. Advantages of the methodology are its transparency, because all model assumptions have to be made explicit in the form of inference rules; its flexibility, in that informal and expert knowledge can be incorporated through ‘fuzzy membership functions’ and through the rules in the inference model; and its versatility, since numerical data can be converted to linguistic statements and vice versa through the procedures of ‘fuzzification’ and ‘defuzzification’.     

Brominated flame retardants and organochlorines in the European environment using great tit eggs as a biomonitoring tool

Large-scale studies are essential to assess the emission patterns and spatial distribution of organohalogenated pollutants (OHPs) in the environment. Bird eggs have several advantages compared to other environmental media which have previously been used to map the distribution of OHPs. In this study, large-scale geographical variation in the occurrence of OHPs, such as polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) and organochlorine pesticides (OCPs), was investigated throughout Europe using eggs of a terrestrial residential passerine species, the great tit (Parus major). Great tit eggs from 22 sampling sites, involving urban, rural and remote areas, in 14 European countries were collected and analysed (5-8 eggs per sampling site). The environmentally most important congeners/compounds of the analysed pollutants were detectable in all sampling locations. For PCBs, PBDEs and OCPs, no clear geographical contamination pattern was found. Sum PCB levels ranged from 143 ng/g lipid weight (lw) to 3660 ng/g lw. As expected, PCB concentrations were significantly higher in the sampled urban compared to the remote locations. However, the urban locations did not show significantly higher concentrations compared to the rural locations. Sum PBDEs ranged from 4.0 ng/g lw to 136 ng/g lw. PBDEs were significantly higher in the urbanized sampling locations compared to the other locations. The significant, positive correlation between PCB and PBDE concentrations suggests similar spatial exposure and/or mechanisms of accumulation. Significantly higher levels of OCPs (sum OCPs ranging from 191 ng/g lw to 7830 ng/g lw) were detected in rural sampling locations. Contamination profiles of PCBs, PBDEs and OCPs differed also among the sampling locations, which may be due to local usage and contamination sources. The higher variance among sampling locations for the PCBs and OCPs, suggests that local contamination sources are more important for the PCBs and OCPs compared to the PBDEs. To our knowledge, this is the first study in which bird eggs were used as a monitoring tool for OHPs on such a large geographical scale.     

Water pollution in Pakistan and its impact on public health--a review

Water pollution is one of the major threats to public health in Pakistan. Drinking water quality is poorly managed and monitored. Pakistan ranks at number 80 among 122 nations regarding drinking water quality. Drinking water sources, both surface and groundwater are contaminated with coliforms, toxic metals and pesticides throughout the country. Various drinking water quality parameters set by WHO are frequently violated. Human activities like improper disposal of municipal and industrial effluents and indiscriminate applications of agrochemicals in agriculture are the main factors contributing to the deterioration of water quality. Microbial and chemical pollutants are the main factors responsible exclusively or in combination for various public health problems. This review discusses a detailed layout of drinking water quality in Pakistan with special emphasis on major pollutants, sources of pollution and the consequent health problems. The data presented in this review are extracted from various studies published in national and international journals. Also reports released by the government and non-governmental organizations are included.     

Educating the next generation of atmospheric scientists within a European Network of Excellence

In order to promote the next generation of atmospheric scientists, the task Training and Education (T&E) in ACCENT, the European Network of Excellence in Atmospheric Composition Change (www.accent-network.org) has developed and implemented an Integrated Learning Environment (ILE). For school teachers and their students, the Internet-based “Global Change Magazine” provides up-to-date and freely accessible scientific material in English and five other languages. Additionally, T&E has produced online teaching material for early-career scientists. These e-learning modules are now being used in University Master's courses across Europe. T&E also organised training events for early-career scientists, combining scientific content with development in transferable skills, to focus on interdisciplinary collaboration, interaction with senior scientists, communication with stakeholders, and dissemination to the general public. Evaluation based on participant feedback evidences the effectiveness of these events, e.g., in terms of motivation to remain in the field. Methodologies and materials from T&E are being published in a Handbook on Best Practice, intended for both educators and scientists around the globe who are involved in education in the field of air quality and climate change science.     

Aggregating the benefits of environmental improvements: distance-decay functions for use and non-use values

One of the main problems in using environmental cost-benefit analysis is deciding on the relevant population: whose benefits should we count? This is important since aggregate benefits depend on both per-person benefit and the number of beneficiaries. Yet this latter term is often hard to evaluate. Distance-decay functions are one way of addressing this problem. In this paper, we present estimates of distance-decay functions for a particular environmental improvement, namely a reduction in low flow problems on the River Mimram in Southern England. We do this both for users and non-users, in the context of a contingent valuation study of the benefits of improving low flow conditions. We test whether distance-decay effects for mean Willingness to Pay are stronger for a single environmental good (the River Mimram, in this case) than for a more inclusive set (here, all rivers in Thames region which suffer from low flow problems). Finally, we explore the impact on part-whole bias, in terms of the relationship between WTP for an individual site and WTP for a more inclusive group of sites, of allowing for distance-decay effects.     

Assessment of the risk of phosphorus loading due to resuspended sediment

Resuspension is a multiphase phenomenon where suspended solids encounter water layers differing in physico-chemical properties that affect the reactions of phosphorus (P). The role of resuspended sediment as a sink or source of dissolved P was determined in a laboratory study of P desorption-sorption equilibria. Gradual mixing was simulated using decreasing solid concentrations and varying environmental conditions (pH, redox, ionic strength). To describe the P exchange when the particles encounter dissimilar water layers, the extent of P sorption to or desorption from solids was expressed as a function of P concentration in the bath solutions. The equilibrium phosphorus concentration (EPC), at which there is no net P release from or retention to the particles, proved to be a suitable parameter for assessment of P load risk. Under oxic conditions at pH 7, commonly prevailing in lakes, the EPC values ranged from 11 to 27 microg P L(-1). The larger the water volume the suspended material was mixed with, the higher the P concentration, allowing desorption to occur. As for chemical factors affecting P mobilization, EPC followed the order: pH 7 < pH 7 anoxic < pH 9. A separate extraction experiment revealed that elevated pH enhanced P mobilization more as the concentration of solids decresed. The results demonstrate that high pH (a common characteristic in eutrophic lakes during summer), when linked with intensive resuspension, may markedly increase the internal P loading risk. As for the risk assessment, the quantification of the internal P loading would be improved by isotherm studies combined with field observations.     

Radionuclide fluxes at a plant manufacturing dicalcium phosphate for domestic animals

We have studied a phosphate rock plant which produces dicalcium phosphate (DCP), used as a source of calcium and phosphorus for domestic animals. A by-product in the manufacturing process is calcium chloride which is used in the oil industry, the food industry and as road-salt. The objectives of our study were to describe the fluxes of radionuclides from the 238U decay series and to estimate the radiation doses to workers at the plant. The radionuclides in the phosphate rock were found to be in secular radioactive equilibrium with 238U, with an average activity concentration of 837 Bq kg-1. Separation and concentration processes were observed at different stages in the plant. Most of the 226Ra was found in the calcium chloride, while the major part of the 238U, about 950 Bq kg-1, was found in the dicalcium phosphate. The annual occupational effective dose to the workers was found to be below the 1 mSv limit recommended by ICRP (1991a) for the public. This study has shown a good example of an important non-nuclear industry with a high input of natural radionuclides with several conceivable pathways to man.     

Effects of acid rain on growth and nutrient concentrations in Scots pine and Norway spruce seedlings grown in a nutrient-rich soil

The effects of artificially applied acid precipitation on growth and nutrient concentrations of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) and Norway spruce (Picea abies [L.] Karst.) seedlings were investigated in a long-term acid irrigation experiment in field conditions. Seedlings of northern and southern origin were planted in boxes containing peat and composted soil rich in nutrients, and sprinkler irrigated with water acidified with nitric and sulphuric acids to pH 3 or pH 4 for periods varying from two to three and a half growing seasons during 1986-1989. Water irrigated (pH 5.4-7.6) and non-irrigated groups of seedlings were also included in the experiment. At the end of the experiment needles, main and lateral shoots and roots were collected from the seedlings for the determination of height growth and biomass partitioning, and for the analysis of S, N, Mg, P, K, Ca, Mn and Fe concentrations. The treatment effects compared to the irrigated control were studied using multivariate analyses of variance and covariance. In the pine seedlings the total dry matter production increased by 25-70% compared with the irrigated controls when the total wet deposition to the seedlings exceeded 67 kg S ha(-1) and 36 kg N ha(-1) (e.g. after two growing seasons' exposure of the pH 3 treatment). The increase was mainly due to an increase in needle dry weight (54-72% greater at pH 3) and root weight (20-65% greater at pH 3), whereas the height growth or shoot weight growth were less affected. The northern provenance pine seedlings responded more clearly to the pH 3 irrigation than the southern ones. The treatments had no consistent effects on any of the growth variables studied in the spruce seedlings, however. The pines had higher root and foliage Ca concentrations as a result of the acid irrigation, whereas in spruce, acid rain decreased the Ca concentration in needles and shoots. Root Mn and Fe concentrations were higher in both species as a result of the pH 3 treatment. A higher soil conductivity and Ca concentration resulted from the prolonged pH 3 treatment. The results strongly support the hypothesis that the long-term growth and nutrient allocation response of conifers to acid precipitation is dependent both on the tree species and on the nutritional status of the soil.