Climate change,food stress,and security in Russia

Farming in higher latitudes is generally believed to benefit from a warmer climate due to extended growing season, reduced risk of frost, availability of more productive cultivars, and an opening potential of farming in northern locations. We analyzed the impact of climate change on production of cereals in Russia and found that this general perception of beneficiary effect of a warmer climate is unlikely to hold, primarily due to increasing risk of droughts in the most important agricultural areas of the country. Past impacts of droughts on food security throughout the twentieth century suggest that a number of adaptation options are available to mitigate the increasing risks of crop failure. We analyze the effectiveness of these measures in connection with a set of climate change projections, under two contrasting scenarios of interregional grain trade: “Fortress Market” and “Open Market.”     

Dangerous climate change and water resources in Australia

Water resources in Australia are sensitive to changes in rainfall. Ongoing droughts in south-west and south-east Australia are stressing water resources in the major cities and in agricultural regions. Climate change scenarios for Australia include reasonable prospects of long-term drying, which would exacerbate these issues. The dryer scenarios would entail major readjustments and costs on natural and human systems.     

Impact and cost of measures to reduce nutrient emissions from wastewater and storm water treatment in the German Elbe river basin

As a leading nutrient emitter, wastewater infrastructure harbors significant technical potentials to reduce the water-polluting emissions of phosphorus and nitrogen into the Elbe river basin. From the viewpoint of the central infrastructure, the effluent threshold value of urban wastewater treatment plants could be lowered further by advanced use of denitrification and membrane filtration, and storm water overflows of wastewater and contaminated rainwater from sewers could be treated in retention soil filters. In addition, small-scale wastewater treatment plants, infiltration and reducing or unsealing impervious surfaces could be used as decentralized elements of wastewater or storm water treatment. It can be shown that if the most advanced measures were applied in all wastewater-relevant areas, up to 60% of the phosphorus and 37% of the nitrogen emissions could be avoided. Alongside central wastewater treatment plants, small-scale treatment plants prove to be the most effective and cost-efficient option. To achieve an ecologically acceptable state of the Elbe, however, it may be necessary to employ more costly measures as well.     

Scenario analysis of perspective change to support climate adaptation: lessons from a pilot study on Dutch river management

Climate adaptation is a complex task surrounded by uncertainty. To support climate adaptation policies, a new scenario approach is pursued to explore possible discontinuous future developments of societal perspectives on climate adaptation issues. The scenario approach was tested for a case study on Dutch river management. In a series of scenario development workshops, a select group of stakeholders explored the perspectives on the management of the River Meuse in the past, present, and future. The process was supported by an analytical perspectives mapping tool to illustrate and analyze the development of perspectives over time. The process and analytical tools contributed to insight into the drivers of perspective change for the case study at hand. Moreover, the stakeholders highlighted the potential of the approach for water management policy for creating awareness about the plurality of perspectives and the dynamics of perspective change, monitoring perspectives and perspective change as part of a flexible policy approach, and anticipating on the occurrence of shock events. Further work is required to better represent the social dynamics of perspectives change, to better empirically ground the perspective change model, and to apply integrated water models in the scenario development process to assess water–society interactions.     

Mid-21st century climate and weather extremes in Cyprus as projected by six regional climate models

We present climate change projections and apply indices of weather extremes for the Mediterranean island Cyprus using data from regional climate model (RCM) simulations driven by the IPCC A1B scenario within the ENSEMBLES project. Daily time-series of temperature and precipitation were used from six RCMs for a reference period 1976–2000 and for 2026–2050 (‘future‘) for representative locations, applying a performance selection among neighboring model grid-boxes. The annual average temperatures of the model ensemble have a ±1.5°C bias from the observations (negative for maximum and positive for minimum temperature), and the models underestimate annual precipitation totals by 4–17%. The climatological annual cycles for the observations fall within the 1σ range of the 6-model average, highlighting the strength of using multi-model output. We obtain reasonable agreement between models and observations for the temperature-related indices of extremes for the recent past, while the comparison is less good for the precipitation-related extremes. For the future, the RCM ensemble shows significant warming of 1°C in winter to 2°C in the summer for both maximum and minimum temperatures. Rainfall is projected to decrease by 2–8%, although this is not statistically significant. Our results indicate the shift of the mean climate to a warmer state, with a relatively strong increase in the warm extremes. The precipitation frequency is projected to decrease at the inland Nicosia and at the coastal Limassol, while the mountainous Saittas could experience more frequent 5–15 mm/day rainfall. In future, very hot days are expected to increase by more than 2 weeks/year and tropical nights by 1 month/year. The annual number of consecutive dry days shows a statistically significant increase (of 9 days) in Limassol. These projected changes of the Cyprus climate may adversely affect ecosystems and the economy of the island and emphasize the need for adaptation strategies.     

Drivers that help adopting stabilised earth construction to address urban low-cost housing crisis: an understanding by construction professionals

Addressing urban housing crisis is an enormous challenge for most of the countries due to the increasing cost of the building material. Therefore, affordable alternative building material can make a breakthrough to the urban housing crisis. In the light of current success of stabilised earth construction in urban low-cost housing, it is important to find out the potential drivers that can help to adopt this building material. This paper aims to identify and highlight these drivers from the method of literature review and validates through a Delphi technique.     

Sustaining water supply through a phased community management approach: lessons from Ghana’s “oats” water supply scheme

Water sector reforms in Ghana and in other developing countries resulted in the adoption of the community management approach for water systems in an effort to ensure better management and service delivery. However, community management is also plagued internal differences, paucity of technical skills, and insufficient management experience. This article presents a case study of a successful community management system in Ghana that utilized a two-phase comanagement period before a full transfer of management responsibilities to the four communities. The first phase of 3 months was a more intensive comanagement system under which the communities teamed up with public agencies and a private firm to manage the water system. This enabled the communities to acquire hands-on management experience and also tap needed skills from external agencies before a second phase of 3 months characterized by gradual withdrawal of private agency support, and a simultaneous measured assumption of higher responsibilities by the communities. Communities thereafter assumed full management responsibility of the water system and have since then posted significant successes in financial management and operations of the system such that some profits have been generated, there is regular water supply and the system operates without major technical hitches. This strategy illustrates the fact that successful community management system is possible if local capacity is adequately strengthened with external support prior to assumption of full community control of water supply systems, and if assumption of responsibilities is pursued gradually.     

Barriers to plantation activities in different agro-ecological zones of Southern India

This paper analyses environmental and socio-economic barriers for plantation activities on local and regional level and investigates the potential for carbon finance to stimulate the increased rates of forest plantation on wasteland, i.e., degraded lands, in southern India. Building on multidisciplinary field work and results from the model GCOMAP, the aim is to (1) identify and characterize the barriers to plantation activities in four agro-ecological zones in the state of Karnataka and (2) investigate what would be required to overcome these barriers and enhance the plantation rate and productivity. The results show that a rehabilitation of the wasteland based on plantation activities is not only possible but also anticipated by the local population and would lead to positive environmental and socio-economic effects at a local level. However, in many cases, the establishment of plantation activities is hindered by a lack of financial resources, low land productivity and water scarcity. Based on the model used and the results from the field work, it can be concluded that certified emission reductions such as carbon credits or other compensatory systems may help to overcome the financial barrier; however, the price needs to be significantly increased if these measures are to have any large-scale impact.     

Social cost of environmental pollution and application of counter measures through clean development mechanism: in the context of developing countries

The developing countries i.e., the non-Annex-I countries (parties to the Kyoto Protocol but not responsible to any reduction target yet) in the Kyoto Protocol whose economies are in transition are also allowed to reduce GHG emissions. Among these, the countries that have accepted the Kyoto Protocol may be benefited from CDM projects to promote sustainable development. The developed countries i.e., the Annex-I countries (that have signed the Kyoto Protocol & are responsible to have specific GHG emission reduction target) or the investing countries, in return, have privilege to purchase CER credits (in units equivalent to one tonne of CO₂ gas emission reduction) to meet the emission target as specified in the Kyoto Protocol. The key step in understanding about CDM is to grasp the concept of “baseline” and “additionality”. The “Baseline” is the emissions level that would have existed if a CDM project had not happened. The feature of an approved CDM project is that the planned reductions would not occur without the additional incentive provided by emission reduction credits; this concept is known as “Additionality”. According to environmental additionality concept, baseline emission minus project emission is equal to emissions reduction. “Investment Additionality,” ultimately rejected during negotiation of the “Marrakech Accords” and “Financial Additionality,” are the two important concepts. The concept of trading of CER matches to the idea of Pigovian tax (equal to the negative externality and which is considered one of the “traditional” means of bringing a modicum of market forces) in Economics, making pollution more costly to the polluter, as the polluters have negative cost since they save money by polluting; hence, there are supposed negative externalities associated with the market activity. Economic theory predicts that in an economy where the cost of reaching mutual agreement between parties is high and where pollution is diffuse, Pigovian tax will be an efficient way to promote the public interest and will lead to an improvement of the quality of life measured by the Genuine Progress Indicator and other human economic indicators, as well as higher gross domestic product growth. We can seek a level of pollution such that the marginal savings (MS) to one polluting unit from pollution (−MC) is equal to marginal damage (MD) from pollution over the entire population, since pollution is a public bad i.e., MS (x*) = ∑MD_i (x*) where ∑D_i (x) is the total damage. Though the responsibility of reduction in emission does not lie on the non-Annex-I countries, still effort of maintaining global emission balance can be expected equally from developed and developing countries. The responsibilities of Kyoto Protocol are (a) to reduce global GHG emissions, (b) to bring about sustainable development in the developing countries lie on above two groups since its effect on February 16, 2005. Different polluters have different costs of pollution control. The least costly way of controlling pollution from various sources that reflects different costs of pollution control making the set of environmental regulations to achieve the emission target at the lowest cost makes the regulation cost-effective. Though efficiency is not attainable for many regulations, cost-effectiveness is attainable.     

Socioeconomic development and vulnerability to land degradation in Italy

In recent years, the surface area affected by land degradation (LD) has significantly increased in southern European regions where the socioeconomic development has been proposed as a basic factor underlying the degree of vulnerability to LD. This paper investigates the correlation between several socioeconomic indicators and the level of vulnerability to LD in Italy, expressed as changes (1990–2000) in a composite index of land vulnerability (ΔLVI). The analysis was carried out over 784 local districts. The impact of per capita value added, agricultural intensity, industrial and tourism concentration, and urban growth was separately tested on ΔLVI. Results indicate that a lower district value added, crop intensification, irrigation, and the level of land vulnerability to degradation are strongly associated with the increasing level of land vulnerability over time, highlighting the role of the socioeconomic development as a main process underlying LD. In this framework, spatially equitable sustainable development may represent the effective strategy to mitigate the detrimental effects of economic growth and regional disparities on Mediterranean LD.