Case studies of scenario analysis for adaptive management of natural resource and infrastructure systems

Management of natural resources and infrastructure systems for sustainability is complicated by uncertainties in the human and natural environment. Moreover, decisions are further complicated by contradictory views, values, and concerns that are rarely made explicit. Scenario analysis can play a major role in addressing the challenges of sustainability management, especially the core question of how to scan the future in a structured, integrated, participatory, and policy-relevant manner. In a context of systems engineering, scenario analysis can provide an integrated and timely understanding of emergent conditions and help to avoid regret and belated action. The purpose of this paper is to present several case studies in natural resources and infrastructure systems management where scenario analysis has been used to aide decision making under uncertainty. The case studies include several resource and infrastructure systems: (1) water resources (2) land-use corridors (3) energy infrastructure, and (4) coastal climate change adaptation. The case studies emphasize a participatory approach, where scenario analysis becomes a means of incorporating diverse stakeholder concerns and experience. This approach to scenario analysis provides insight into both high-performing and robust initiatives/policies, and, perhaps more importantly, influential scenarios. Identifying the scenarios that are most influential to policy making helps to direct further investigative analysis, modeling, and data-collection efforts to support the learning process that is emphasized in adaptive management.     

Universities and Climate Change Mitigation: Advancing Grassroots Climate Policy in the US

Abstract

While US climate change mitigation policy has stalled at the national level, local and regional actors are increasingly taking progressive steps to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions. Universities are poised to play a key role in this grassroots effort by targeting their own emissions and by working with other local actors to develop climate change mitigation programmes. Researchers at the Pennsylvania State University have collaborated with university administrators and personnel to inventory campus emissions and develop mitigation strategies. In addition, they have facilitated a stakeholder-driven climate change mitigation project in one Pennsylvania county and started an ongoing service-learning project aimed at reducing emissions in another county. These campus and community outreach initiatives demonstrate that university-based mitigation action may simultaneously achieve tangible local benefits and develop solutions to broader challenges facing local climate change mitigation efforts. Outcomes include improved tools and protocols for measuring and reducing local emissions, lessons learned about service-learning approaches to climate change mitigation, and methods for creating climate change governance networks involving universities, local governments and community stakeholders.     

Estimates of cloud water deposition at Mountain Acid Deposition Program sites in the Appalachian Mountains

Cloud water deposition was estimated at three high-elevation sites in the Appalachian Mountains of the eastern United States (Whiteface Mountain, NY; Whitetop Mountain, VA; and Clingman's Dome, TN) from 1994 through 1999 as part of the Mountain Acid Deposition Program (MADPro). This paper provides a summary of cloud water chemistry, cloud liquid water content, cloud frequency, estimates of cloud water deposition of sulfur and nitrogen species, and estimates of total deposition of sulfur and nitrogen at these sites. Other cloud studies in the Appalachians and their comparison to MADPro are also summarized. Whiteface Mountain exhibited the lowest mean and median concentrations of sulfur and nitrogen ions in cloud water, while Clingman's Dome exhibited the highest mean and median concentrations. This geographic gradient is partly an effect of the different meteorological conditions experienced at northern versus southern sites in addition to the difference in pollution content of air masses reaching the sites. All sites measured seasonal cloud water deposition rates of SO4(2-) greater than 50 kg/ha and NO3(-) rates of greater than 25 kg/ha. These high-elevation sites experienced additional deposition loading of SO4(2-) and NO3(-) on the order of 6-20 times greater compared with lower elevation Clean Air Status and Trends Network (CASTNet) sites. Approximately 80-90% of this extra loading is from cloud deposition.     

Cross-achievements between policies for drinking water protection

Environmental dynamics have important spatial dimensions, which calls for a spatial approach in policy analyses. Further to this, assessing agri-environmental policies involves analyses of individual measures as well as their combined effects on farmer behaviour and the environment. The integration of an economic behavioural model in a spatial framework has enabled analyses of a geographically targeted subsidy scheme for drinking water protection in combination with a uniform tax on commercial nitrogen fertilizer. Results show that policy measures for reducing nitrogen use can have combined effects (cross-achievements), thereby affecting each other's cost-effectiveness. Cross-achievements between a nitrogen fertilizer tax and a subsidy scheme based on elicitation are shown not to be additive, making partial analyses of policy measures more uncertain.     

Removal of NAPLs from the unsaturated zone using steam: prevention of downward migration by injecting mixtures of steam and air

Steam injection for remediation of porous media contaminated by nonaqueous phase liquids has been shown to be a potentially efficient technology. There is, however, concern that the technique may lead to downward migration of separate phase contaminant. In this work, a modification of the steam injection technology is presented, where a mixture of steam and air was injected. In two-dimensional experiments with unsaturated porous medium contaminated with nonaqueous phase liquids, it was demonstrated how injection of pure steam lead to severe downward migration. Similar experiments, where steam and air were injected simultaneously, resulted in practically no downward migration and still rapid cleanup was achieved. The processes responsible for the prevention of downward migration when injecting steam-air mixtures were analyzed using a nonisothermal multiphase flow and transport model. Hereby, three mechanisms were identified and it was demonstrated how the effectiveness of these mechanisms depended on the air-to-steam mixing ratio.     

Impact of a once-through cooling system on the yellow perch stock in the western basin of lake erie

The surplus production model, a conventional fishery stock assessment model, is applied to assess the entrainment and impingement impact of the Monroe Power Plant on the yellow perch standing stock and fishery in the western basni of Lake Erie. Biological parameters of the model are estimated from commercial catch and effort data and entrainment and impingement coefficients are estimated from power plant data. The model is applied to estimate stock biomass, egg production, and larva production; the proportions entrained and impinged are then estimated. The impact of water withdrawal on the equilibrium standing stock and maximum sustainable yield from the fishery is estimated and the impact of increased water withdrawal on the equilibrium standing maximum sustainable yield are larger than the proportion of the standing stock entrained and impinged, but the impact of the Monroe Power Plant is relatively small; it decreases biomass and the maximum sustainable yield of the yellow perch stock by only a few percent. However, there are several power plants impacting the yellow perch stock of the western basin of Lake Erie and the combined impact should be examined.     

Natural factors and human modifications contributing to marsh loss in Louisiana's Mississippi River Deltaic Plain

Natural factors and human modifications contribute to the estimated annual loss of 10,200 ha of coastal land in the Mississippi River Deltaic Plain Region of south Louisiana. This paper combines information on regional geology and human-induced habitat alterations to evaluate the relative importance of human and natural factors to marsh loss. Data on marsh area and habitat type for 139 7.5-min quadrangles were calculated from maps based on aerial photographs from 1955/56 and 1978, and data on regional geology obtained from published maps were used to construct multivariate model relating initial marsh area, change in urban and agricultural area, change in canal and spoil area, canal area in 1978, depth of sediment overlying the Prairie terrace, and subdelta age to marsh loss. The model indicated that between 25.0% and 39.0% of the marsh loss that occurred during the 23-year period was related to canal and spoil construction, and between 9.5% and 12.7% was related to urban and agricultural development. These are minimal estimates of loss because they do not include many secondary effects (for example, canal orientation, saltwater intrusion, and eutrophication) that can also result in indirect loss. Depth of sediment, initial marsh area, delta lobe age by 1978 canal and spoil area interaction, and indirect effects not included in the model accounted for remaining marsh loss.     

A PHOSPHORUS MANAGEMENT LP MODEL CASE STUDY1

ABSTRACT A linear programming model to assess the cost-effectiveness of appropriate point and nonpoint phosphorus control measures was constructed for Carnegie Lake, an eutrophic lake located in Mercer County, New Jersey. The resultant model was tested for present and future conditions. Feasible solutions were obtained only after significant relaxation of receiving water quality standards. The high levels of point source treatment required to meet the in-stream water quality standards and the mesotrophic loading conditions suggest that a source control solution may not be feasible.     

印度尼西亚沿海村庄中的人口迁徙和捕捞活动

东南亚的沿海生态系统正处于来自局部和全球变化增长的压力下.本文研究了印度尼西亚北苏拉威西省米纳哈萨区沿海村庄中的人口迁徒和海洋资源利用情况.原始数据是通过对村庄领导人、重点人群的采访以及600个捕鱼家庭的抽样调查收集的.在过去10年经济增长总量中至少有1/4应归功于人口迁徙.所有渔民团体都报道说近岸渔业生产力正在下降.经济计量学分析被用来研究手工捕鱼部门的周渔获量.人口迁徙状态和社会经济变量看来不产生系统的影响,而渔捞能力(劳动力、渔船及渔具),专业化程度以及村庄地处遥远被认为确实与周渔获量大小有关系.