LOS ALAMOS FOREST FIRE IMPACT MODELING1

ABSTRACT: A controlled burn at Bandelier National Monument got out of control and burned about 43,000 acres (17,400 hectares) near Los Alamos, New Mexico, in May 2000. The wildfire caused dramatic changes in infiltration capacity and wettability of soils in many of the watersheds above Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) and destroyed the duff layer, dramatically reducing the interception and infiltration capacity of the formerly forested watersheds. These sudden changes in basin hydrology necessitated a rapid assessment of hydrology and hydraulics for the canyons running through LANL property to evaluate flood risk, plan emergency flood protection measures, and assess potential sediment and actinide transport. This paper presents the results of hydrologic and hydraulic modeling of Los Alamos Canyon following the wildfire. The large scale modeling effort, with over 13,000 cross sections for the hydraulic model (5,000 for Los Alamos Canyon, 8,000 for Guaje Canyon), relied heavily on a geographic information system (GIS) for model input and floodplain delineation. The HEC‐geoRAS model provided good integration between the hydraulic model (HEC‐RAS, Version 3.0.1) and the GIS (ArcView, v. 3.3). These modeling results are being used in drainage master planning efforts at LANL and in the development of sediment transport models using HEC‐6T. Sediment transport modeling results will be used to develop actinide transport models for the canyons at LANL.     

The Moral Foundation of the Precautionary Principle

The Commission's recentinterpretation of the Precautionary Principleis used as starting point for an analysis ofthe moral foundation of this principle. ThePrecautionary Principle is shown to have theethical status of an amendment to a liberalprinciple to the effect that a state only mayrestrict a person's actions in order to preventunacceptable harm to others. The amendmentallows for restrictions being justified even incases where there is no conclusive scientificevidence for the risk of harmful effects.However, the liberal tradition has seriousproblems in determining when a risk of harm isunacceptable. Nevertheless, reasonable liberalarguments in favor of precaution can be basedon considerations of irreversible harm andgeneral fear of harm. But it is unclear whenthere considerations can be overridden.Within the liberal framework, the Commissionadvocates a so-called proportional version ofthe Precautionary Principle. This should beclearly distinguished from a welfare-basedapproach to precaution based on risk-aversiveweighing up of expected costs and benefits.However, in the last resort, the Commissiondoes seem to make a covert appeal to suchconsiderations.     

A Review of the Effects of Aircraft Noise on Wildlife and Humans,Current Control Mechanisms,and the Need for Further Study

Military and civilian aircraft overflights are an issue that may impact the quality of life for millions of United States residents. Aircraft noise annoys many people worldwide and is generally thought to adversely affect some wildlife species. In light of increasing demands being placed on airspace, and because of technological improvements in acoustical testing, there is a need to reexamine the effects of aircraft noise exposure on humans and wildlife. This paper reviews past research, current laws and legislation, and presents an argument for the need to revisit the effects of aircraft noise on humans and wildlife. Some evidence suggests that noise may adversely impact wildlife and humans, however, many of the past studies were inconclusive and based on relatively small sample sizes. Given that aircraft noise abatement legislation has been enacted and because of the recent promulgation of community-based noise awareness programs, future studies should be conducted to resolve public policy problems and debates associated with aircraft noise. The need to further study the effects of aircraft noise on humans and wildlife is critical for creating sustainable land use policies near aircraft installations. Data derived from these studies will be used to create sound public policies that enhance the operational capacity of military and civilian aircraft while reducing the opportunity for human and wildlife exposure to aircraft noise.     

Impacts of Camping on Vegetation: Response and Recovery Following Acute and Chronic Disturbance

Experiments with controlled levels of recreational camping were conducted on previously undisturbed sites in two different plant communities in the subalpine zone of the Wind River Mountains, Wyoming, USA. The plant communities were coniferous forest with understory dominated by the low shrub Vaccinium scoparium and a riparian meadow of intermixed grasses and forbs, of which Deschampsia cespitosa was most abundant. Sites were camped on at intensities of either one or four nights per year, for either one (acute disturbance) or three consecutive years (chronic disturbance). Recovery was followed for three years on sites camped on for one year and for one year on sites camped on for three years. Reductions in vegetation cover and vegetation height were much more pronounced on sites in the forest than on sites in the meadow. In both plant communities, increases in vegetation impact were not proportional to increases in either years of camping or nights per year of camping. Close to the center of campsites, near-maximum levels of impact occurred after the first year of camping on forested sites and after the second year on meadow sites. Meadow sites recovered completely within a year, at the camping intensities employed in the experiments. Forest sites, even those camped on for just one night, did not recover completely within three years. Differences between acute and chronic disturbance were not pronounced.     

Global Carbon Dioxide Emissions Scenarios: Sensitivity to Social and Technological Factors in Three Regions

Carbon dioxide emissions from 1990 to 2100 AD are decomposed into the product of four factors: population size, affluence (measured here as GDP per capita), energy intensity (energy use per unit GDP) and carbon intensity (carbon dioxide emissions per unit energy). These emissions factors are further subdivided into three regions: more developed countries (MDCs), China, and the remaining less developed countries (LDCs). Departures from a baseline scenario (based on IPCC, 1992a — the so-called ‘business-as-usual’ scenario) are calculated for a variety of alternative assumptions concerning the four emissions factors in the three regions. Although the IPCC scenario is called a ‘non-intervention’ scenario, it is shown, for example, that large decreases in energy intensity in China or carbon intensity in MDCs are built into the ‘business as usual’ case — and such large changes vary considerably from region to region. We show what CO₂ emissions would look like if each of these four emissions factors projected in the baseline case somehow remained constant at 1990 levels. Certain factors like energy intensity improvements and long-term population growth in LDCs, or GDP growth and carbon intensity improvements in MDCs, are shown to have a big contribution to cumulative global emissions to 2100 AD, and consequently, changes in these projected factors will lead to significant deviations from baseline emissions. None of the scenarios examined in this analysis seems to indicate that any one global factor is clearly dominant, but cultural, economic, and political costs or opportunities of altering each factor may differ greatly from country to country.     

环境对坦桑尼亚类珊瑚虫分布的影响

本文研究了有关坦桑尼亚珊瑚礁环境不同方面的类珊瑚虫(刺胞动物门,珊瑚虫纲)的分布和丰度.通过设线截距横切和点取标技术,调查了受到人类不同骚扰程度的5种礁.     

Modelling of the behavior of marine oil spills: applications based on random walk techniques

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Prenatal diagnosis of a 46,XX/47,XX, +12 mosaic

A case of true mosaicism 46,XX/47,XX,+ 12 was diagnosed prenatally. The pregnancy was terminated in the 21st week of gestation and the aberrant cell line was rediscovered in cultured fetal tissue. However, a detailed examination of the fetus did not disclose any significant physical malformation.     

Geographic Analysis of California Condor Sighting Data

Observation and habitat data were compiled and analyzed in conjunction with recovery planning for the endangered California Condor ( Gymnogyps californianus ). A geographic information system (GIS) was used to provide a quantitative inventory of recent historical Condor habitats, to measure the association of Condor activity patterns and mapped habitat variables, and to examine spatio-temporal changes in the range of the species during its decline. Only five percent of the study area within the historic range is now used for urban or cultivated agricultural purposes. Observations of Condor feeding perching, and nesting were nonrandomly associated with mapped land cover, in agreement with life history information for the species. The precipitous decline in numbers of Condors in this century produced only a small reduction in the limits of the observed species' range, as individual birds continued to forage over most of the range. Some critical risk factors such as shooting and lead poisoning are difficult to map and have not been included in the database. Besides the applications demonstrated in this case study, GIS can be a valuable tool for recovery planning, in the design of stratified sampling schemes, or for extrapolation of habitat models over unsurveyed regions. We conclude with recommendations from this case study regarding when to consider using GIS and the importance of pilot studies and sensitivity analysis.