Models at the interface between science and society: impacts and options

Within the CLEAR project a new approach to integrated assessment modelling has been developed for the participatory integrated assessment of regional climate change involving citizens' focus groups. The climate change decision problem was structured by focusing separately on climate impacts and mitigation options. The attempt was made to link the different scales of the problem from the individual to the global level. The abstract topic of climate change was related to options on the level of a citizen's individual lifestyle. The option of a low energy society was emphasised in order to embed the climate change decision problem in a wider range of societal concerns. Special emphasis was given to the characterisation and communication of uncertainties. The chosen approach allows different kinds of uncertainties in one framework to be addressed. The paper concludes with a summary of the experience made, and recommendations for the use of models in participatory integrated assessments. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Assessment and comparison of the environmental performances of a regional incinerator network

In Emilia-Romagna region (Northern Italy) the integrated waste treatment system consists of material collection and recycling, incineration with energy recovery and landfill as final disposal. In particular, at least one incineration plant is working in almost every province of the region. In this work, a screening life cycle assessment approach is applied to seven different incinerators, to compare the different plant technologies and identify the most relevant environmental impacts and processes. The characterization method used in the life cycle impact assessment step is Eco-indicator 99. The functional unit is 1 ton of waste input. As a first result, it can be noted that while the combustion systems are rather similar, the main variables are ascribable to gas cleaning options and efficiency in energy recovery, which result in quite different environmental performances. Among heavy metals, particular attention must be paid to Cd and As, due to their high toxicity, despite their low quantities. The impact due to dioxin emission is orders of magnitude lower than other contaminants (e.g., heavy metals). Furthermore, a catalytic system could be useful for a complete removal of organic contaminants and for a more effective abatement of nitrogen oxides. Finally, the environmental impact assessment sorts the various plants according to their age, i.e., the most recent plants provide the best environmental performances for the same quantity of combusted waste.     

Pteris umbrosa R. Br. as an arsenic hyperaccumulator: accumulation, partitioning and comparison with the established As hyperaccumulator Pteris vittata

The capacity of the Australian native fern Pteris umbrosa to function as an arsenic (As) hyperaccumulator (shoot:soil As concentration >1) was examined by growing plants under glasshouse conditions in an inert medium supplemented with As. Arsenic preferentially accumulated in the fronds, a trait of a hyperaccumulator. The As concentration of fronds decreased with age, being particularly high in the croziers and low in the senesced fronds. Below ground, rhizomes accumulated more As than adventitious roots. Uptake from a range of solution concentrations followed Michaelis Menten kinetics up to a soil solution As concentration of 400mgl(-1). The K(m) for As uptake by roots suggested the operation of a low-affinity carrier. The predicted Nernst membrane potential indicated that uptake was against the electrochemical gradient of As. At 600mgl(-1), the rate of As uptake increased and phytotoxic effects were indicated by a significant decline in biomass. Arsenic uptake and translocation in P. umbrosa and Pteris vittata were similar at low exposure to As. At higher exposure, As uptake and translocation by P. vittata increased more than in P. umbrosa. The growth rate of both ferns was similar, whereas the biomass distribution was not, with P. vittata having a much larger root mass. This suggests that As uptake by P. umbrosa roots was very efficient and may be improved by stimulating root growth to enhance its potential.     

Accumulation and partitioning of heavy metals in mangroves: a synthesis of field-based studies

We report the findings of a comparative analysis examining patterns of accumulation and partitioning of the heavy metals copper (Cu), lead (Pb) and zinc (Zn) in mangroves from available field-based studies to date, employing both species level analyses and a phylogenetic approach. Despite mangroves being a taxonomically diverse group, metal accumulation and partitioning for all metals examined were broadly similar across genera and families. Patterns of metal accumulation were also similar regardless of whether species were classified as salt secreting or non-secreting. Metals were accumulated in roots to concentrations similar to those of adjacent sediments with root bio-concentration factors (BCF; ratio of root metal to sediment metal concentration) of 1< or =. Root BCFs were constant across the exposure range for all metals. Metal concentrations in leaves were half that of roots or lower. Essential metals (Cu and Zn; translocation factors (TF; ratio of leaf metal to root metal concentration) of 0.52 and 0.53, and leaf BCFs of 0.47 and 0.51, respectively) showed greater mobility than non-essential metals (Pb; TF of 0.31 and leaf BCF of 0.11). Leaf BCFs for the essential metals Cu and Zn decreased as environmental concentrations increased. The non-essential metal Pb was excluded from leaf tissue regardless of environmental concentrations. Thus mangroves as a group tend to operate as excluder species for non-essential metals and regulators of essential metals. For phytoremediation initiatives, mangrove ecosystems are perhaps best employed as phytostabilisers, potentially aiding in the retention of toxic metals and thereby reducing transport to adjacent estuarine and marine systems.     

Anti-sense expression of putrescine N-methyltransferase confirms defensive role of nicotine in Nicotiana sylvestris against Manduca sexta

Summary. Several lines of evidence support the defensive function of nicotine production in the Nicotiana genus against a range of herbivores, but the evidence is largely correlative. To suppress nicotine production in planta and to test its defensive function, we expressed DNA of putrescine N-methyl transferase in an anti-sense orientation (AS-PMT) in N. sylvestris and fed leaf material from two lines of transformed and wild type plants to Manduca sexta larvae. Larvae consumed more leaf area and gained more mass on the foliage of plants with low PMT expression and low nicotine levels as compared to plants with high PMT expression and high nicotine levels and wild type plants. Overall, larval consumption and performance were negatively correlated with constitutive nicotine levels. We conclude that nicotine decreases the palatability of N. sylvestris leaves to the nicotine-resistant M. sexta larvae.     

Nutrient baselines of Cerrado low-order streams: comparing natural and impacted sites in Central Brazil

The aquatic systems responsible for water supply in the Brazilian Federal District (FD) have been threatened by anthropogenic pressures, especially considering the expressive demographic increase in the region during the last decades. The purposes of this research were: (a) to assess the water quality in streams located in the FD by monitoring physical–chemical variables; (b) to define baselines for these variables among different ecological status categories. The 14 investigated streams were sampled between 2006 and 2009, in the dry (August–September, 2006, 2008, 2009) and rainy (March–April, 2008, 2009) seasons. All sampling sites were classified in four categories (“very impacted”, “impacted”, “in transition” and “natural”) using an adaptation of a rapid habitat assessment protocol. Differences in water quality among sites were generally well predicted in the four ecological status categories defined by the protocol, which showed a gradient in nutrient concentrations from reference sites classified as “natural” (medians: electrical conductivity?=?7.3 μS cm^?1; nitrate?=?0.040 mg L^?1; ammonium?=?0.039 mg L^?1; soluble reactive phosphorus (SRP)?=?<0.001 mg L^?1; total phosphorus (TP)?=?0.006 mg L^?1; ) to those classified as “very impacted” (medians: electrical conductivity?=?87.7 μS cm^?1; nitrate?=?0.247 mg L^?1; ammonium?=?0.219 mg L^?1; SRP?=?0.010 mg L^?1; TP?=?0.035 mg L^?1). Point sources inputs were the main factor for water quality deterioration. The nutrient baselines reported were relatively low when compared to data collected from reference areas in Brazil (e.g., São Paulo State) or temperate regions, especially for TP.     

Using process-based models to filter out natural variability in observed concentrations of nitrogen and phosphorus in river water

Advances in process-based modelling of loads of nitrogen and phosphorus carried by rivers have created new possibilities to interpret time series of water quality data. We examined how model runs with constant anthropogenic forcing can be used to estimate and filter out weather-driven variation in observational data and, thereby, draw attention to other features of such data. An assessment of measured and modelled nutrient concentrations at the outlets of 45 Swedish rivers provided promising results for total nitrogen. In particular, joint analyses of observational data and outputs from the catchment model S-HYPE strengthened the evidence that downward trends in nitrogen were due to mitigation measures in agriculture. Evaluation of modelled and observed total phosphorus concentrations revealed considerable bias in the collection or chemical analysis of water samples and also identified weaknesses in the model outputs. Together, our results highlight the need for more efficient two-way communication between environmental modelling and monitoring.     

Prioritizing GM crop monitoring sites in the dynamics of cultivation systems and their environment

EU legislation stipulates that GM crops have to be monitored for potential adverse environmental effects. Monitoring preferably should take place in the most exposed areas-the cultivated fields and their neighbouring environment. Current monitoring designs do not give detailed consideration to the different exposure intensities in agricultural practice. At the same time, the selection of specific, more exposed sites is difficult considering the dynamic and diversity of crop cultivation and rotation systems and their environments. We developed an approach for prioritising the monitoring of on-farm and neighbouring sites based on differing exposure levels using a minimum dataset of cultivation and land use information. Applying a Bt-maize cultivation scenario to Brandenburg, Germany, where presently no GM crops are cultivated, we systemised and categorised areas with different spatio-temporal exposure intensities including 50 m, 200 m and 1000 m buffers. These categories correspond to different suitabilities to serve as monitoring sites. Sites are prioritised using a sequential scheme. This yields an improved and objective spatial monitoring design providing detailed exposure information. This methodology is flexible and transferable to any agricultural setting, therefore enabling superior statistical comparisons between locations and regions and thus enhancing monitoring data quality.     

Understanding local community attitudes toward industrial development in the Great Barrier Reef region World Heritage Area: are environmental impacts perceived to overshadow economic benefits?

Conflicts between industrial development and environmental conservation can be particularly acute when such development occurs in the vicinity of World Heritage sites. A key example is the Great Barrier Reef World Heritage Area (GBRWHA) in northeastern Australia, where a 2012 review by the World Heritage Council found that rapid port development inshore of the coral reef posed significant risks to local marine ecosystems. Such instances pose pressing challenges for decision‐makers seeking to manage World Heritage sites for multiple values and needs, including those of key stakeholder groups, such as local communities. There is increasingly a societal expectation that public decision‐making takes into account local views and priorities, and that companies seek a ‘social license to operate’. This research explored local community attitudes toward port development associated with the export of liquefied natural gas (LNG) and coal through the GBRWHA. Using data drawn from a survey and interviews, the research examined how a range of geographical factors, including proximity to gas infrastructure and the perceived impacts and risks of development to the local community, economy and environment shape community perceptions of the industry. Findings suggest that local attitudes toward gas and coal terminal development inshore of the GBRWHA are shaped predominantly by community perceptions of environmental impacts and risks associated with such infrastructure, in contrast to a broader public narrative that focuses largely on economic benefits. A complex combination of other factors, including social impacts, personal environmental values, community trust in industry, and equity in decision‐making and distribution of the risks and benefits of industrial development also contribute. Placed in a broader, global context, the findings have important implications for public decision‐making processes in Australia and elsewhere as they suggest that, for local communities, the perceived impacts of gas development on the environment may overshadow the benefits of industry.     

Removal of heavy metal ions from wastewaters using dendrimer-functionalized multi-walled carbon nanotubes

Dendrimer-functionalized multi-walled carbon nanotubes (MWCNT) for heavy metal ion removal from wastewaters were developed. Triazole dendrimers (TD) were built directly onto the carbon nanotube surface by successive click chemistry reactions affording the zero- and first-generation dendrimer-functionalized MWCNT (MWCNT-TD1 and MWCNT-TD2). The Moedritzer-Irani reaction carried out on the amino groups present on the MWCNT-TD2 sample gave the corresponding α-aminophosphonate nanosystem MWCNT-TD2P. Both MWCNT-TD2 and MWCNT-TD2P nanosystems have been characterized by physical, chemical, and morphological analyses. Their chelating abilities towards the toxic metal ions Pb²⁺, Hg²⁺, and Ni²⁺ and the harmless Ca²⁺ ion have been experimentally evaluated in the two different sets of experiments and at the salt concentrations of 1 mg/mL or 1 μg/mL by inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (ICP-MS). The results of these studies pointed out the interesting chelating behavior for the phosphonated nanosystem towards the Hg²⁺ ion. The complexation mode of the best chelating system MWCNT-TD2P with mercury was investigated through density functional theory (DFT) calculations, suggesting a chelation mechanism involving the two oxygen atoms of the phosphate group. The synthesized dendrimers, supported on the multi-walled carbon nanotubes, have shown the potential to be used for the selective toxic metal ion removal and recovery.