PREDICTING FECAL COLIFORM BACTERIA LEVELS IN THE CHARLES RIVER,MASSACHUSETTS, USA1

In Massachusetts, the Charles River Watershed Association conducts a regular water quality monitoring and public notification program in the Charles River Basin during the recreational season to inform users of the river's health. This program has relied on laboratory analyses of river samples for fecal coliform bacteria levels, however, results are not available until at least 24 hours after sampling. To avoid the need for laboratory analyses, ordinary least squares (OLS) and logistic regression models were developed to predict fecal coliform bacteria concentrations and the probabilities of exceeding the Massachusetts secondary contact recreation standard for bacteria based on meteorological conditions and streamflow. The OLS models resulted in adjusted R²s ranging from 50 to 60 percent. An uncertainty analysis reveals that of the total variability of fecal coliform bacteria concentrations, 45 percent is explained by the OLS regression model, 15 percent is explained by both measurement and space sampling error, and 40 percent is explained by time sampling error. Higher accuracy in future bacteria forecasting models would likely result from reductions in laboratory measurement errors and improved sampling designs.     

A land suitability model for the evaluation of land-use change

A land suitability model was developed to provide the planner with a quantitative tool for assessing the environmental limitations on proposed land-use changes in the area surrounding Lake Monroe in southern Indiana. The model incorporates a weighting procedure that allows the environmental evaluation of a decision to convert the present land use to another category. The data base for the model was assembled by a multidisciplinary team. A case study is included, which illustrates the advantages and limitations of the land suitability model as it is applied to the evaluation of a site for the Alumni Family Camp.     

Grassy balds of the Great Smoky Mountains: Their history and flora in relation to potential management

The origin of the grassy balds of the Great Smoky Mountains is examined. Some of the areas were cleared by settlers. Grazing by sheep and cattle and the cutting of trees were probably the most important factors in maintaining the grass sward; fire apparently was not used.Vegetation survey plots indicated that little of the original balds' area was still grassy and that most of the invading trees and shrubs could be expected to sprout if cut or burned. Areas presently trampled or mowed had a flora similar to a bald that was still grazed. High-elevation burn scars had many species in common with the grassy balds but had dissimilar community structures; therefore, a policy favoring natural fires would be unlikely to encourage maintanence or formation of grassy balds.The management of open grassy areas on National Forest lands was investigated. Burning was the favored technique, although hand cutting, mowing, and grazing were used. The results of testing various management practices on Gregory Bald are reviewed in terms of cost, impact, and historical authenticity. Implications for park management are discussed.     

COMPARISON OF TWO AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELS FOR MONTHLY STREAM FLOW GENERATION1

ABSTRACT: Two autoregressive models for monthly stream flow generation are compared based on the reproduction of the historical record in terms of several important statistics such as the mean, standard deviation, skewness coefficient, correlation coefficient, and the reservoir storage components. In the comparison, both theoretical considerations and practical applications are employed to evaluate the performance of each model.     

EROSIONAL POTENTIAL OF STREAMS IN URBANIZING AREAS1

ABSTRACT: In urbanizing areas, the usual increase in flood flows also increases erosional capability of streams. In order to evaluate such tendencies quantitatively, 25 stream reaches were studied, and were classified as to whether erosion of the channel and banks was light, medium, or heavy. Analysis of characteristics indicated that (1) densely developed areas are correlated with greater erosion, (2) wide stream buffers of natural vegetation are correlated with lesser erosion, and (3) there is no definite correlation of erosion to slope or characteristics of soil. Erosional stream instability can be avoided by retention of storm water runoff, creating additional channel roughness or reducing channel slope during floods by drop structures, such as culverts, which restrict flow. Channel straightening and general bank protection should be minimized in such streams. Design of culverts should take such effects into consideration.     

A conceptual model for response to Arctic oil spills

The potential for oil spills in Arctic regions has increased significantly because of the development of petroleum resources. Response to an oil spill in the Arctic is likely to be much slower than that in the temperate region because of the remoteness of the area and its severe climate. In the face of these unique problems, accurate prediction of the extent and subsequent movement of an oil spill is vital to any cleanup effort. Presented is the framework of a program to study the movement of oil spills in the Arctic. Existing models of oil spreading and polar ice dynamics are reviewed and areas where new model development is required are defined. A system design is developed that may be used for developing a plan to act in the event of a major spill.     

Reviews

Planning theory

Andreas Faludi

Pergamon Press, Oxford, 1973. Hard cover £4.75, flexi‐cover £3.

PLANNING AND THE INNOVATION PROCESS (Progress in Planning, Vol. 1, Part 3)

Ray Jefferson

Pergamon Press, Oxford, 1973

THRESHOLD ANALYSIS MANUAL

Scottish Development Department H.M.S.O., London, 1973. £6

THE PLANNER IN SOCIETY: THE CHANGING ROLE OF A PROFESSION

David Eversley

Faber and Faber, London, 1973. £4.75.

SUB‐REGIONAL PLANNING STUDIES: AN EVALUATION

T. M. Cowling and G. C. Steeley

Pergamon Press, Oxford, 1973. £3.80

SKETCHBOOKS OF PAOLO SOLERI

Paolo Soleri.

M.I.T. Press, Cambridge, Massachusetts & London, England, 1971.

ARCOLOGY: THE CITY IN THE IMAGE OF MAN.

Paolo Soleri.

M.I.T. Press, Cambridge, Massachusetts & London, England, 1969.

FREDERICK LAW OLMSTED AND THE AMERICAN ENVIRONMENTAL TRADITION

Albert Fein

George Braziller, New York. $10.00 cloth. $3.95 paper.

ECOLOGY AND RECLAMATION OF DEVASTED LAND (2 vols.) ed. Russel Hutnick and Grant Davis

Gordon and Breach, New York, 1973. £25.00.

MAN MADE THE LAND: Essays in English Historical Geography

Ed. Alan R. H. Baker and J. B. Harley.

David and Charles, Newton Abbot, 1973. £5.25.

THE UNKNOWN URBAN REALM (Vol. 2, Europe 2,000, Project 3, Urbanization, Planning Human Environment in Europe)

U. Neveling, R. Sulzer, W. Ubbens, G. Wersig.

Martinus Nijhoff, The Hague, 1973.     

SEASONAL OCCURRENCE OF ANNUAL FLOODS ON SMALL PENNSYLVANIA WATERSHEDS1

A study is presented of the months in which the instantaneous annual maximum discharges from 66 watersheds occurred. The 2,052 flood values were measured on areas ranging from 2.4 through 214 square miles. The longest record was 60 years; the three shortest were 20. Pictorial results show both the number of floods for each month and individual discharges relative to the mean flood. A parameter which is weighted in this manner accounts for both the incidence and the magnitude of floods. Peculiarities of flood-timing charts, based on this parameter, are discussed with respect to watershed size, soils, geology, and land use. After anomolous watersheds had been assigned to special categories, flood-timing charts from most records exhibit a regional dichotomy dividing eastern from western Pennsylvania.     

PARAMETER ESTIMATION FOR AQUIFER EVALUATION1

ABSTRACT A discussion of the various tools and techniques available for evaluation of aquifers is presented. Data for evaluation studies can be obtained from laboratory experiments, geological maps, well logs and field studies. Such data can be used in analytic or electric analog models to determine the sustained yield of the aquifer under various operating conditions.     

Habitat classification: A comparison using avian species and guilds

Results of breeding bird censuses in 1979 and 1980 were used to compare the relationships of both species and guilds to forest habitats in the White Mountains of New Hampshire. Several age classes of 11 forest cover types were studied: northern hard-woods (Fagus-Betula-Acer), spruce (Picea), spruce-fir (Picea-Abies), birth (Betula), swamp hardwoods (Acer-Pinus-Tsuga), pine (Pinus strobus andP. resinosa), balsam fir (Abies), aspen (Populus tremuloides andP. grandidentata), northern red oak (Quercus), oak-pine (Quercus-Pinus), and hemlock (Tsuga). All types were even-aged; only northern hardwoods had an additional uneven-aged condition. Forest cover types were also pooled to consider generalized habitats: hardwoods, mixed forest, or softwoods. Results of ordinations based on censuses of 74 bird species indicate that foraging guilds are more related to general cover types than are nesting substrate guilds, but bird species reflect habitat differences to a greater degree than do either guild scheme. Also, considerable overlap occurs in bird species distribution between hardwoods and mixed forests; softwoods show little overlap with other types. Discriminant function and classification analyses revealed that bird species composition can be used to correctly classify general forest habitats more accurately (83.8%) than either foraging (63.2%) or nesting substrate guilds (58.4%). These results indicate that, of the habitats studied, avian species compositions are more characteristic than are foraging or nesting substrate guild composition, which tend to be similar across forest habitats.