Verifying emission factors and national POPs emission inventories for the UK using measurements and modelling at two rural locations

Different approaches are used to verify the adequacy of emission factors (EFs) and their use in emission inventories of persistent organic pollutants (POPs). The applicability of EFs was tested using atmospheric dispersion modelling to predict atmospheric concentrations of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), dibenzo-p-dioxins (PCDDs) and dibenzofurans (PCDFs) and resulting toxic equivalents (SigmaTEQ) and particulate matter <10 microm (PM(10)) in two rural locations in northern England (UK). The modelling was based on general assumptions of fuel composition, consumption and heating needs to simulate emissions of POPs from the domestic burning of coal and wood where ambient measurements were made in the winter of 1998. The model was used to derive the local contribution to ambient air concentrations, which were estimated independently based on comparative air measurements. The results support the hypothesis that in both villages, the majority of PAHs and the lower chlorinated PCDFs were locally released. The situation for PCBs and polychlorinated naphthalenes (PCNs) was different. While the EFs show the release of both compound groups from the domestic burning of coal and wood, the ambient levels of these "legacy POPs" in the villages were still clearly dominated by other sources. Rural areas relying mainly on fossil fuels can exceed the proposed UK ambient air quality standard for benzo[a]pyrene during winter. The measured EFs were then used to estimate the importance of the domestic burning of coal and wood to national emission inventories for these compound classes. Extrapolations to the UK suggest that the domestic burning of pure wood and coal were minor emitters for chlorinated POPs but contributed strongly to PAH and PM(10) levels in 2000. Finally, the UK's national POPs emission inventories based on source inventories and EF, as used here, were compared to estimates derived using the increase in atmospheric concentration of selected POPs.     

Assessment of Mangrove Response to Projected Relative Sea-Level Rise And Recent Historical Reconstruction of Shoreline Position

We predict the decadal change in position of three American Samoa mangroves from analysis of a time series of remotely sensed imagery, a geographic information system, tide gauge data, and projections for change in sea-level relative to the mangrove surface. Accurate predictions of changes to coastal ecosystem boundaries, including in response to projected relative sea-level rise, enable advanced planning to minimize and offset anticipated losses and minimize social disruption and cost of reducing threats to coastal development and human safety. The observed mean landward migration of three mangroves' seaward margins over four decades was 25, 64, and 72mma⁻¹, 12 to 37 times the observed relative sea-level rise rate. Two of the sites had clear trends in reductions in mangrove area, where there was a highly significant correlation between the change in position of the seaward mangrove margin and change in relative sea-level. Here it can be inferred that the force of sea-level rise relative to the mangrove surface is causing landward migration. Shoreline movement was variable at a third site and not significantly correlated with changing sea-level, where it is likely that forces other than change in relative sea-level are predominant. Currently, 16.5%, 23.4%, and 68.0% of the three mangroves' landward margins are obstructed by coastal development from natural landward migration. The three mangroves could experience as high as a 50.0% reduction in area by the year 2100. A 12% reduction in mangrove area by the year 2100 is possible in the Pacific islands region.     

Soil Organic Carbon (SOC) Equilibrium and Model Initialisation Methods: an Application to the Rothamsted Carbon (RothC) Model

Carbon (C) emissions from anthropogenic land use have accelerated climate change. To reduce C emissions, dynamic models can be used to assess the impact of human drivers on terrestrial C sequestration. Model accuracy requires correct initialisation, since incorrect initialisation can influence the results obtained. Therefore, we sought to improve the initialisation of a process-based SOC model, RothC, which can estimate the effect of climate and land-use change on SOC. The most common initialisation involves running the model until equilibrium (‘spin-up run’), when the SOC pools stabilise (method 1). However, this method does not always produce realistic results. At our experimental sites, the observed SOC was not at equilibrium after 10 years, suggesting that the commonly used spin-up initialisation method assuming equilibrium might be improved. In addition to method 1, we tested two alternative initialisations for RothC that involved adjusting the total or individual SOC pool equilibrium values by regulating the C input during the entire spin-up initialisation period (method 2) and initialising each SOC pool with recently measured SOC values obtained by SOC fractionation (method 3). Analysis of the simulation accuracy for each model initialisation, quantified using the root mean square error (RMSE), indicated that a variant of method 2 that involved adjusting the equilibrium total SOC to observed values (method 2-T) generally showed less variation in the individual SOC pools and total SOC. Furthermore, as total SOC is the sum of all SOC pools, and because total SOC data are more readily available than the individual SOC pool data, we conclude that method 2-T is best for initialising RothC.     

Growth and crown architecture of two aspen genotypes exposed to interacting ozone and carbon dioxide.

To study the impact of ozone (O3) and O3 plus CO2 on aspen growth, we planted two trembling aspen clones, differing in sensitivity to O3 in the ground in open-top chambers and exposed them to different concentrations of O3 and O3 plus CO, for 98 days. Ozone exposure (58 to 97 microl l(-1)-h. total exposure) decreased growth and modified crown architecture of both aspen clones. Ozone exposure decreased leaf, stem, branch, and root dry weight particularly in the O3 sensitive clone (clone 259). The addition of CO2 (150 microl l(-1) over ambient) to the O3 exposure counteracted the negative impact of O3 only in the O3 tolerant clone (clone 216). Ozone had relatively little effect on allometric ratios such as, shoot/root ratio, leaf weight ratio, or root weight ratio. In both clones, however, O3 decreased the shoot dry weight, shoot length ratio and shoot diameter. This decrease in wood strength caused both current terminals and long shoots to droop and increased the branch angle of termination. These results show that aspen growth is highly sensitive to O3 and that O3 can also significantly affect crown architecture. Aspen plants with drooping terminals and lateral branches would be at a competitive disadvantage in dense stands with limited light.     

Polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins (PCDDs) and furans (PCDFs) in urban air and deposition in the United Kingdom

Polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins and furans (PCDD/Fs) have been monitored in air and deposition at four UK urban sites (London, Cardiff, Manchester and Stevenage) since the beginning of 1991; data from the first 2 years are presented here. Median Σ2,3,7,8-substituted PCDD/F concentrations in air were 3.2, 4.0, 3.5 and 2.6 pg/m³ respectively for London, Cardiff, Manchester and Stevenage. Median Σ2,3,7,8-substituted PCDD/F deposition fluxes were 1.5 ng/m²/day in London, 1.4 ng/m²/day in Cardiff and Manchester and 0.79 ng/m²/day in Stevenage. Seasonal variations in the PCDD/F concentrations were observed at all sites for both air and deposition, with concentrations/fluxes generally elevated during the winter.     

Econometric modeling of fisheries with complex life histories: Avoiding biological management failures

Economics of the fishery has focused on the wastefulness of common pool resource exploitation. Pure open access fisheries dissipate economic rents and degrade biological stocks. Biologically managed fisheries also dissipate rents but are thought to hold biological stocks at desired levels. We develop and estimate an empirical bioeconomic model of the Gulf of Mexico gag fishery that questions the presumptive success of biological management. Unlike previous bioeconomic life history studies, we provide a way to circumvent calibration problems by embedding our estimation routine directly in the dynamic bioeconomic model. We nest a standard biological management model that accounts for complex life history characteristics of the gag. Biological intuition suggests that a spawning season closure will reduce fishing pressure and increase stocks, and simulations of the biological management model confirm this finding. However, simulations of the empirical bioeconomic model suggest that these intended outcomes of the spawning closure do not materialize. The behavioral response to the closure appears to be so pronounced that it offsets the restriction in allowable fishing days. Our results indicate that failure to account for fishing behavior may play an important role in fishery management failures.     

Aging and demographic plasticity in response to experimental age structures in honeybees (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Apis mellifera</Emphasis> L)

Honeybee colonies are highly integrated functional units characterized by a pronounced division of labor. Division of labor among workers is mainly age-based, with younger individuals focusing on in-hive tasks and older workers performing the more hazardous foraging activities. Thus, experimental disruption of the age composition of the worker hive population is expected to have profound consequences for colony function. Adaptive demography theory predicts that the natural hive age composition represents a colony-level adaptation and thus results in optimal hive performance. Alternatively, the hive age composition may be an epiphenomenon, resulting from individual life history optimization. We addressed these predictions by comparing individual worker longevity and brood production in hives that were composed of a single-age cohort, two distinct age cohorts, and hives that had a continuous, natural age distribution. Four experimental replicates showed that colonies with a natural age composition did not consistently have a higher life expectancy and/or brood production than the single-cohort or double-cohort hives. Instead, a complex interplay of age structure, environmental conditions, colony size, brood production, and individual mortality emerged. A general tradeoff between worker life expectancy and colony productivity was apparent, and the transition from in-hive tasks to foraging was the most significant predictor of worker lifespan irrespective of the colony age structure. We conclude that the natural age structure of honeybee hives is not a colony-level adaptation. Furthermore, our results show that honeybees exhibit pronounced demographic plasticity in addition to behavioral plasticity to react to demographic disturbances of their societies.     

Flux by fin: fish-mediated carbon and nutrient flux in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico

Seagrass meadows are among the most productive ecosystems in the marine environment. It has been speculated that much of this production is exported to adjacent ecosystems via the movements of organisms. Our study utilized stable isotopes to track seagrass-derived production into offshore food webs in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. We found that gag grouper (Myctereoperca microlepis) on reefs as far as 90 km from the seagrass beds incorporate a significant portion of seagrass-derived biomass. The muscle tissue of gag grouper, a major fisheries species, was composed on average of 18.5–25% seagrass habitat-derived biomass. The timing of this annual seagrass subsidy appears to be important in fueling gag grouper egg production. The δ³⁴S values of gag grouper gonad tissues varied seasonally and were δ³⁴S depleted during the spawning season indicating that gag utilize the seagrass-derived biomass to support reproduction. If such large scale trophic subsidies are typical of temperate seagrass systems, then loss of seagrass production or habitat would result in a direct loss of offshore fisheries productivity.