Effects of sample survey design on the accuracy of classification tree models in species distribution models

We evaluated the effects of probabilistic (hereafter DESIGN) and non-probabilistic (PURPOSIVE) sample surveys on resultant classification tree models for predicting the presence of four lichen species in the Pacific Northwest, USA. Models derived from both survey forms were assessed using an independent data set (EVALUATION). Measures of accuracy as gauged by resubstitution rates were similar for each lichen species irrespective of the underlying sample survey form. Cross-validation estimates of prediction accuracies were lower than resubstitution accuracies for all species and both design types, and in all cases were closer to the true prediction accuracies based on the EVALUATION data set. We argue that greater emphasis should be placed on calculating and reporting cross-validation accuracy rates rather than simple resubstitution accuracy rates. Evaluation of the DESIGN and PURPOSIVE tree models on the EVALUATION data set shows significantly lower prediction accuracy for the PURPOSIVE tree models relative to the DESIGN models, indicating that non-probabilistic sample surveys may generate models with limited predictive capability. These differences were consistent across all four lichen species, with 11 of the 12 possible species and sample survey type comparisons having significantly lower accuracy rates. Some differences in accuracy were as large as 50%. The classification tree structures also differed considerably both among and within the modelled species, depending on the sample survey form. Overlap in the predictor variables selected by the DESIGN and PURPOSIVE tree models ranged from only 20% to 38%, indicating the classification trees fit the two evaluated survey forms on different sets of predictor variables. The magnitude of these differences in predictor variables throws doubt on ecological interpretation derived from prediction models based on non-probabilistic sample surveys.     

Dual mechanism of queen influence over sex ratio in the ant Pheidole pallidula

Social Hymenoptera are general models for the study of parent-offspring conflict over sex ratio, because queens and workers frequently have different reproductive optima. The ant Pheidole pallidula shows a split distribution of sex ratios with most of the colonies producing reproductives of a single sex. Sex ratio specialization is tightly associated with the breeding system, with single-queen (monogynous) colonies producing male-biased brood and multiple-queen (polygynous) colonies female-biased brood. Here, we show that this sex specialization is primarily determined by the queens influence over colony sex ratio. Queens from monogynous colonies produce a significantly more male-biased primary sex ratio than queens from polygynous colonies. Moreover, queens from monogynous colonies produce a significantly lower proportion of diploid eggs that develop into queens and this is associated with lower rate of juvenile hormone (JH) production compared to queens from polygynous colonies. These results indicate that queens regulate colony sex ratio in two complementary ways: by determining the proportion of female eggs laid and by hormonally biasing the development of female eggs into either a worker or reproductive form. This is the first time that such a dual system of queen influence over colony sex ratio is identified in an ant.     

云南寻甸中全新世降温事件的石笋同位素记录

通过对寻甸仙人洞X1石笋进行高精度的TIMS-U系测年和碳、氧同位素分析,建立了寻甸地区8000aB.P.以来高分辨率的古气候变化时间序列。研究结果表明,寻甸地区8000aB.P.以来石笋记录的古气候环境变化,大致可分为3个气候期:中全新世8000—5560aB.P.为气候适宜期,显示印度季风由强盛逐渐减弱的趋势,气候温暖湿润期,与太阳辐射增强引起的北半球季风环流加强有关;中全新世中晚期5560—4400aB.P.为季风转变期,显示印度季风减弱并快速退出、萎缩,东亚冬季风加强并快速推进,太阳辐射强度减弱,气候为干冷期;中全新世晚期4400—2000aB.P.,显示东亚冬季风逐渐减弱,东亚夏季风有所增加,气温有所回升,但气候变化的波动大。研究还表明,全新世以来石笋记录的气候变化非常不稳定,在千年尺度上表现为台阶状,在短尺度———百年尺度上呈锯齿状波动。石笋记录的突发性气候波动事件,与冰芯记录极为相似,反映低纬度地区石笋记录的季风气候与高纬度及北极地区的气候具有极好的相关性,这对于认识现代气候系统变化以及对未来十年、百年尺度的气候预测具有重要的科学意义。     

生活垃圾的管理政策和措施改进:加拿大的经验

本文以加拿大安大略省的生活垃圾“3R”(垃圾的减量、重复利用和回收)措施为例。介绍了加拿大在生活垃圾管理和处置以及相应收费方面的经验。     

Locational Errors in Maps from Environmental Surveys and Their Implications for Information Extraction

1.Information on all maps, including those which depict characters of the natural environment, is subject to locational error. 2.Locational errors on field-sketched maps are attributable to inaccuracies both in the base map itself and in the method of locating and recording features onto the base map. 3.Two main sources of error associated with field sketch mapping were quantified using the River Corridor Survey maps as an example. First, channel widths are routinely exaggerated on these maps to allow recording of in-channel features. Distortions of river bank length of the order of 25% were shown to arise from a four-fold exaggeration of the width of a sinuous channel. Second, discrepancies in feature location of the order of 20% were found along a 500 m river stretch, although errors could be reduced to approximately 2% if undistorted, large-scale base maps were used. 4.An abundance scale appropriate to the inherent locational inaccuracy was devised to extract semi-quantitative information from River Corridor Surveys recorded on distorted base maps. Application of this scale to 29 River Corridor Survey maps of a 14·5 km river corridor produced a useful representation of environmental gradients within the corridor. 5.With the increasing potential to integrate and analyse environmental information within large computer databases including Geographic Information Systems, it is essential that the level of accuracy is recognised and quantified so that the errors can be allowed for in the development of methods of extracting information from the maps.     

Renewable resource management and extinction

Several authors have noted that extinction of a biological resource could be consistent with a policy of maximizing the discounted present value of economic rent. However, the arguments put forward in support of this assertion have hitherto been based on autonomous models. In this note we discuss the nonautonomous case, which turns out to be considerably more difficult to analyze.     

The economics of fishing and modern capital theory: A simplified approach

While the link between fisheries economics and capital theory has long been recognized, fisheries economics has, until the last few years, developed largely along nondynamic lines. The purpose of this article is to demonstrate that, with the aid of optimal control theory, fisheries economics can without difficulty be cast in a capital-theoretic framework yielding results that are both general and readily comprehensible.We commence by developing a dynamic linear autonomous model. The static version of the fisheries economics model is seen to be the equivalent of a special case of the dynamic autonomous model. The model is then extended, first by making it nonautonomous and second, nonlinear. Problems arising therefrom, such as multiple equilibria, are considered.