Modelling and assessment of South African elephant Loxodonta africana population persistence

The use of a quantitative population growth model to investigate the persistence of South African elephant populations is explored. The model provides quantitative assessments of population persistence and confidence intervals for estimated parameters based purely on population size estimates. The analysis supports the view that most of the larger populations in the region are secure. This view is further supported by a lack of density dependent effects in most of the recovering populations and the high population rates of increase observed. This predominantly positive prognosis is in contrast with that emerging from most of the rest of the African continent where the populations are under greater threat because of habitat restriction and direct human conflict. This preliminary assessment of elephant population persistence suggests that “viable” populations may lie between 400 and 6000 individuals. Although not inconsistent with information-greedy genetic and demographic models, the relationship between population growth versus genetic and demographic models should be further investigated. The implementation of a metapopulation management strategy towards these smaller populations is advocated. In addition, as all of the populations included in this analysis have been afforded some degree of protection since the 1920s, continued protection would be a prerequisite for their continued survival.     

Interactions of forests with secondary air pollutants: some challenges for future research

The effects of ozone and other photochemical oxidants on individual trees have been studied for several decades, but there has been much less research on the potential effects on entire forest ecosystems. Given that ozone and other oxidants affect the production and subsequent fate of biogenic volatile organic compounds that act as signalling molecules, there is a need for more detailed study of the role of oxidants in modifying trophic interactions in forests. Deposition of fine particulates to forests may act as a source of nutrients, but also changes leaf surface properties, increasing the duration of surface wetness and modifying the habitat for epiphytic organisms, leading to increased risks from pathogens. Even where this pathway contributes a relatively small input of nutrients to forests, the indirect effects on canopy processes and subsequent deposition to the forest floor in throughfall and litter may play a more important role that has yet to be fully investigated.     

Effect of vegetation type on throughfall deposition and seepage flux

This paper compares different vegetation types (coniferous and deciduous forest, grassed and pure heathland) in terms of input (throughfall deposition) and output (seepage flux) in a region with intermediate nitrogen load (+/-20kg Nha(-1)y(-1) via bulk precipitation) in comparable conditions in north Belgium. Coniferous forest (two plots Pinus sylvestris and two plots Pinus nigra) received significantly higher nitrogen and sulphur throughfall deposition than deciduous forest and heathland. Grassed and pure heathland had significantly highest throughfall quantities of Ca(2+) and Mg(2+), respectively. The observed differences in throughfall deposition between the different vegetation types were not univocally reflected in the ion seepage flux. Considerable seepage fluxes of NO(3)(-), SO(4)(2-), Ca(2+) and Al(III) were only found under the P. nigra plots. We discuss our hypothesis that the P. nigra forests already evolved to a situation of N saturation, while the other vegetation types did not.     

Long term changes in atmospheric N and S throughfall deposition and effects on soil solution chemistry in a Scots pine forest in the Netherlands

In a Scots pine forest the throughfall deposition and the chemical composition of the soil solution was monitored since 1984. (Inter)national legislation measures led to a reduction of the deposition of nitrogen and sulphur. The deposition of sulphur has decreased by approximately 65%. The total mineral-nitrogen deposition has decreased by ca. 25%, which is mainly due to a reduction in ammonium-N deposition (−40%), since nitrate-N deposition has increased (+50%). The nitrogen concentration in the upper mineral soil solution at 10 cm depth has decreased, leading to an improved nutritional balance, which may result in improved tree vitality. In the drainage water at 90 cm depth the fluxes of NO₃⁻ and SO₄²⁻ have decreased, resulting in a reduced leeching of accompanying base cations, thus preserving nutrients in the ecosystem. It may take still several years, however, before this will meet the prerequisite of a sustainable ecosystem.     

Emissions tradeoffs among alternative marine fuels: total fuel cycle analysis of residual oil, marine gas oil, and marine diesel oil

Worldwide concerns about sulfur oxide (SOx) emissions from ships are motivating the replacement of marine residual oil (RO) with cleaner, lower-sulfur fuels, such as marine gas oil (MGO) and marine diesel oil (MDO). Vessel operators can use MGO and MDO directly or blended with RO to achieve environmental and economic objectives. Although expected to be much cleaner in terms of criteria pollutants, these fuels require additional energy in the upstream stages of the fuel cycle (i.e., fuel processing and refining), and thus raise questions about the net impacts on greenhouse gas emissions (primarily carbon dioxide [CO2]) because of production and use. This paper applies the Total Energy and Environmental Analysis for Marine Systems (TEAMS) model to conduct a total fuel cycle analysis of RO, MGO, MDO, and associated blends for a typical container ship. MGO and MDO blends achieve significant (70-85%) SOx emissions reductions compared with RO across a range of fuel quality and refining efficiency assumptions. We estimate CO2 increases of less than 1% using best estimates of fuel quality and refinery efficiency parameters and demonstrate how these results vary based on parameter assumptions. Our analysis suggests that product refining efficiency influences the CO2 tradeoff more than differences in the physical and energy parameters of the alternative fuels, suggesting that modest increases in CO2 could be offset by efficiency improvements at some refineries. Our results help resolve conflicting estimates of greenhouse gas tradeoffs associated with fuel switching and other emissions control policies.     

Implications of urine-to-feces ratio in the thermophilic anaerobic digestion of swine waste.

Thermophilic anaerobic digestion of swine manure represents a potential waste treatment technology to address environmental concerns, such as odor emissions and removal of pathogenic microorganisms. However, there are concerns relative to the stability of this process when swine manure is the sole substrate. In this study, the potential of biogas production from swine manure as the sole substrate under thermophilic (50 degrees C) conditions was investigated in the laboratory, to determine whether separation of urine and feces as part of the waste collection process would benefit anaerobic digestion. Effluent from a continuously stirred tank reactor was used as the inoculum for batch tests, in which the substrate contained three different concentrations of urine (urine-free, as-excreted urine-to-feces ratio and double the as-excreted urine-to-feces ratio). Inocula were acclimated to these same urine-to-feces ratios to determine methane production. Results show that both urine-free and as-excreted substrates were not inhibitory to anaerobic inocula. Anaerobic microorganisms can be readily acclimated to substrate with double the as-excreted urine concentration, which contained nitrogen concentrations up to 7.20 g/L. Cumulative methane production reached similar levels in the batch tests, regardless of the substrate urine concentration.     

METHODOLOGIES FOR CALIBRATION AND PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS OF A WATERSHED MODEL1

ABSTRACT: The use of a fitted parameter watershed model to address water quantity and quality management issues requires that it be calibrated under a wide range of hydrologic conditions. However, rarely does model calibration result in a unique parameter set. Parameter nonuniqueness can lead to predictive nonuniqueness. The extent of model predictive uncertainty should be investigated if management decisions are to be based on model projections. Using models built for four neighboring watersheds in the Neuse River Basin of North Carolina, the application of the automated parameter optimization software PEST in conjunction with the Hydrologic Simulation Program Fortran (HSPF) is demonstrated. Parameter nonuniqueness is illustrated, and a method is presented for calculating many different sets of parameters, all of which acceptably calibrate a watershed model. A regularization methodology is discussed in which models for similar watersheds can be calibrated simultaneously. Using this method, parameter differences between watershed models can be minimized while maintaining fit between model outputs and field observations. In recognition of the fact that parameter nonuniqueness and predictive uncertainty are inherent to the modeling process, PEST's nonlinear predictive analysis functionality is then used to explore the extent of model predictive uncertainty.     

THE VULNERABILITY OF WETLANDS TO CLIMATE CHANGE: A HYDROLOGIC LANDSCAPE PERSPECTIVE1

ABSTRACT: The vulnerability of wetlands to changes in climate depends on their position within hydrologic landscapes. Hydrologic landscapes are defined by the flow characteristics of ground water and surface water and by the interaction of atmospheric water, surface water, and ground water for any given locality or region. Six general hydrologic landscapes are defined; mountainous, plateau and high plain, broad basins of interior drainage, riverine, flat coastal, and hummocky glacial and dune. Assessment of these landscapes indicate that the vulnerability of all wetlands to climate change fall between two extremes: those dependent primarily on precipitation for their water supply are highly vulnerable, and those dependent primarily on discharge from regional ground water flow systems are the least vulnerable, because of the great buffering capacity of large ground water flow systems to climate change.     

Reverse logistics in the Brazilian construction industry

In Brazil most Construction and Demolition Waste (C&D waste) is not recycled. This situation is expected to change significantly, since new federal regulations oblige municipalities to create and implement sustainable C&D waste management plans which assign an important role to recycling activities. The recycling organizational network and its flows and components are fundamental to C&D waste recycling feasibility. Organizational networks, flows and components involve reverse logistics. The aim of this work is to introduce the concepts of reverse logistics and reverse distribution channel networks and to study the Brazilian C&D waste case.