Vested Interest theory and disaster preparedness

Three studies were designed to extend a combination of vested interest theory (VI) and the extended parallel process model of fear appeals (EPPM) to provide formative research for creating more effective disaster preparedness social action campaigns. The aim was to develop an effective VI scale for assessing individual awareness and ‘vestedness’ relevant to disaster preparedness. Typical preparedness behaviours are discussed with emphasis on earthquakes and tornados in particular. Brief overviews of VI and the EPPM are offered, and findings are presented from three studies (one dealing with earthquakes, and two with tornados) conducted to determine the factor structure of the key VI components involved, and to develop and test subscales derived from the two theories. The paper finishes with a discussion of future research needs and suggestions on how the new subscales may be applied in the design and execution of more effective disaster preparedness campaigns.     

Is there a Dutch disease in Botswana?

The Dutch disease is regularly evoked in the resource curse literature and remains a frequent explanation for the poor economic performance found in many resource-rich countries. Given Botswana's high rate of per capita GDP growth, it might seem superfluous at first glance to ask whether or not there is a Dutch disease in Botswana. Yet, Botswana merits study here both as a significant potential exception to any posited inevitability of the Dutch disease and also because the debate on whether or not Botswana has avoided the Dutch disease is far less settled than is indicated by its economic growth record. Botswana currently suffers from many of the symptoms of the Dutch disease but not for the causal reasons posited in the Dutch disease model. Indeed, many of the explanations for the lack of diversification found in Botswana's mineral-dependent economy have nothing to do with either diamond revenues or the Dutch disease. Botswana has done about as well managing its resource wealth as could realistically be expected but it is unlikely to succeed in diversifying its economy away from diamonds anytime soon.     

Connectivity of wood thrush breeding,wintering, and migration sites based on range‐wide tracking

Many migratory animals are experiencing rapid population declines, but migration data with the geographic scope and resolution to quantify the complex network of movements between breeding and nonbreeding regions are often lacking. Determining the most frequently used migration routes and nonbreeding regions for a species is critical for understanding population dynamics and making effective conservation decisions. We tracked the migration of individual Wood Thrushes (Hylocichla mustelina) (n = 102) from across their range with light‐level geolocators and, for the first time, quantified migration routes and wintering regions for distinct breeding populations. We identified regional and species‐level migratory connectivity networks for this declining songbird by combining our tracking results with range‐wide breeding abundance estimates and forest cover data. More than 50% of the species occupied the eastern wintering range (Honduras to Costa Rica), a region that includes only one‐third of all wintering habitat and that is undergoing intensive deforestation. We estimated that half of all Wood Thrushes in North America migrate south through Florida in fall, whereas in spring approximately 73% funnel northward through a narrow span along the central U.S. Gulf Coast (88–93°W). Identifying migratory networks is a critical step for conservation of songbirds and we demonstrated with Wood Thrushes how it can highlight conservation hotspots for regional populations and species as a whole. Conectividad de Sitios de Reproducción, Invierno y Migración del Zorzal con Base en Rastreo de Cobertura Amplia     

Land clearance not dieback continues to drive tree loss in a Tasmanian rural landscape

Tree cover has declined markedly since European settlement in the agricultural areas of Australia due to land clearing and natural and stress-induced senescence of remnant trees combined with widespread regeneration failure. These decreases in tree cover have seldom been quantified on a landscape scale, but are important in understanding losses in carbon storage and biodiversity across large areas of the continent. We used historical aerial photography and satellite imagery to study changes in tree canopy cover in the southern Tasmanian Midlands, one of the oldest agricultural regions in Australia. Tree cover at 1,000 random sites was assessed from imagery captured on four occasions between 1947 and 2010. Tree cover was stable between 1947 and the 1970s, but decreased from 33 % in the 1970s to 21 % in 2010. The decrease appeared driven by transition from some cover to no cover, rather than from more cover to less cover, because sites with tree cover in 2010 showed little net change during the study period. Statistical modelling showed soils derived from igneous rocks lost more cover than did the less fertile sedimentary soils, and contrary to the expectations, if drought was the cause of cover loss, sun-exposed north-facing sites did not lose more cover than south-facing ones. We argue that these temporal and spatial patterns of tree cover change are consistent with tree clearing rather than loss of remnant isolated trees due to drought-induced dieback.     

Climate change vulnerability of the US Northeast winter recreation– tourism sector

Winter recreation is an important part of the cultural identity of the Northeast United States and is a multibillion dollar contributor to the regional economy. This study examined the vulnerability of the two largest winter recreation industries, snowmobiling and alpine skiing, to four climate change scenarios for the twenty-first century. Under all scenarios, natural snow became an increasingly scarce resource. The diminished natural snow pack had a very negative impact on the snowmobile industry. As early as 2010–2039, 4 to 6 of the 15 snowmobile study areas were projected to lose more than half of the current season. Reliable snowmobile seasons (>50 days) were virtually eliminated in the region under the A1Fi scenarios by 2070–2099. The large investment in snowmaking substantially reduced the vulnerability of the ski industry and climate change posed a risk to only 4 of the 14 ski areas in 2010–2039, where average ski seasons declined below 100 days and the probability of being open for the entire Christmas–New Year’s holiday declined below 75%. Conversely, by 2070–2099 only four ski study areas had not reached these same economic risk criteria. In order to minimize ski season losses, snowmaking requirements are projected to increase substantially, raising important uncertainties about water availability and cost. Climate change represents a notable threat to the winter recreation sector in the Northeast, and the potential economic ramifications for businesses and communities heavily invested in winter tourism and related real estate is sizeable.     

Timber harvest transforms ecological roles of salmon in southeast Alaska rain forest streams

Although species commonly modify habitats and thereby influence ecosystem structure and function, the factors governing the ecological importance of these modifications are not well understood. Pacific salmon have repeatedly been shown to positively influence the abundance of benthic biota by annually transferring large quantities of nutrients from marine systems to the nutrient-poor freshwaters in which they spawn. Conversely, other studies have demonstrated that salmon can negatively influence the abundance of freshwater biota, an effect attributed to bioturbation during upstream migration and nest construction. The factors determining which of these contrasting ecological effects predominates are unknown, including how human activities, such as land use, influence ecological responses to salmon. We sampled a key basal food resource, sediment biofilm, in seven southeast Alaskan streams impacted to varying degrees by timber harvest. Biofilm abundance (measured as chlorophyll a and ash-free dry mass) was positively related to timber-harvest intensity prior to salmon arrival. However, during the salmon run, an inverse relationship emerged of more abundant biofilm in less-harvested watersheds. Among-stream variability in biofilm response to salmon was largely explained by sediment particle size, which was larger in less-harvested watersheds. Collectively, these results suggest that, by altering stream sediment size, timber harvest transformed the dominant effect of salmon from nutrient enrichment to physical disturbance, thus modifying nutrient linkages between marine and freshwater ecosystems.     

Energetics,reproductive suppression and obligate communal breeding in carnivores

Summary Leptogenys processionalis Jerdon forages on termites and other arthropods by raiding in branched trails. Growth and topology of these search trails were studied using Horton's (1945) technique orginally developed to analyze the branching pattern of river systems. Branching was always a bifurcating process and branches emerged symmetrically on either side of the main trail. Branching coefficients (R _b ) were similar to those of a few biological branching systems, such as lungs, that are considered to be non-random in their branching pattern. The R _b values indicated that the rate of branching and growth of trails remained constant within each foraging bout. The length of trails became shorter as they grew out and branched. The branching process was a function of the spatial separation of food patches in the terminal search field. Ants in the terminal search field send signals on encountering prey. The recruits cannot discriminate between these signals if they arise from two food patches situated <40 cm from each other, and hence converge on them in a single trail. However, discrimination is possible when food patches are >40 cm apart and hence recruits congregate on them separately in two trails, resulting in branching. Thus, the branching process is a result of independent decision by the ants conforming to certain simple rules and not a collective decision of the whole colony. We argue that mass recruiting ants selected to forage by branching pattern of trails because of its efficiency over other topologies (Stevens 1973) in minimizing the cost of travel, both from the nest to the food patches and between food patches. Further, the branch angles appear to be a trade-off to minimize travel cost and the resistance to the flow of ants comprising the column.Offprint requests to: T. Veena     

Restoration of riparian forest using irrigation,artificial disturbance,and natural seedfall

In interior western North America, many riparian forests dominated by cottonwood and willow are failing to reproduce downstream of dams. We tested the hypothesis that establishment is now prevented by absence of the bare, moist substrate formerly provided by floods and channel movement. Along Boulder Creek, a dammed stream in the Colorado plains, we tested the effects of disturbance (sod removal), irrigation, and addition of seed on the establishment of seedings of plains cottonwood (Populus deltoides subsp.monilifera) and peachleaf willow (Salix amygdaloides). In unirrigated, undisturbed plots, mean cottonwood density was 0.03 seedlings/m². Irrigation or disturbance alone produced mean cottonwood densities of 0.39 and 0.75 seedlings/m². Plots that were both irrigated and disturbed produced a mean cottonwood density of 10.3 seedlings/m². The effects of irrigation and disturbance on cottonwood establishment were significant (P<0.005); added seed had no significant effect (P=0.78). The few cottonwood seedlings in unirrigated plots were in low positions susceptible to scour by future moderate flows. We conclude that cottonwood establishment along Boulder Creek is limited by the scarcity of bare, moist sites safe from future scour. Establishment of peachleaf willow was significantly affected only by disturbance; daily sprinkler irrigation did not provide sufficient moisture to increase survival of this species. Our results demonstrate the feasibility of restoring plains cottonwood forests using natural seedfall, even where only widely scattered adult trees are present. Because use of natural seedfall conserves the genetic makeup of the local population, this method may be preferable to the use of imported cuttings.