Climate change and coastal vulnerability assessment: scenarios for integrated assessment

Coastal vulnerability assessments still focus mainly on sea-level rise, with less attention paid to other dimensions of climate change. The influence of non-climatic environmental change or socio-economic change is even less considered, and is often completely ignored. Given that the profound coastal changes of the twentieth century are likely to continue through the twenty-first century, this is a major omission, which may overstate the importance of climate change, and may also miss significant interactions of climate change with other non-climate drivers. To better support climate and coastal management policy development, more integrated assessments of climatic change in coastal areas are required, including the significant non-climatic changes. This paper explores the development of relevant climate and non-climate drivers, with an emphasis on the non-climate drivers. While these issues are applicable within any scenario framework, our ideas are illustrated using the widely used SRES scenarios, with both impacts and adaptation being considered. Importantly, scenario development is a process, and the assumptions that are made about future conditions concerning the coast need to be explicit, transparent and open to scientific debate concerning their realism and likelihood. These issues are generic across other sectors.

Co-evolution of wetland landscapes,flooding, and human settlement in the Mississippi River Delta Plain

River deltas all over the world are sinking beneath sea-level rise, causing significant threats to natural and social systems. This is due to the combined effects of anthropogenic changes to sediment supply and river flow, subsidence, and sea-level rise, posing an immediate threat to the 500–1,000 million residents, many in megacities that live on deltaic coasts. The Mississippi River Deltaic Plain (MRDP) provides examples for many of the functions and feedbacks, regarding how human river management has impacted source-sink processes in coastal deltaic basins, resulting in human settlements more at risk to coastal storms. The survival of human settlement on the MRDP is arguably coupled to a shifting mass balance between a deltaic landscape occupied by either land built by the Mississippi River or water occupied by the Gulf of Mexico. We developed an approach to compare 50 % L:W isopleths (L:W is ratio of land to water) across the Atchafalaya and Terrebonne Basins to test landscape behavior over the last six decades to measure delta instability in coastal deltaic basins as a function of reduced sediment supply from river flooding. The Atchafalaya Basin, with continued sediment delivery, compared to Terrebonne Basin, with reduced river inputs, allow us to test assumptions of how coastal deltaic basins respond to river management over the last 75 years by analyzing landward migration rate of 50 % L:W isopleths between 1932 and 2010. The average landward migration for Terrebonne Basin was nearly 17,000 m (17 km) compared to only 22 m in Atchafalaya Basin over the last 78 years (p < 0.001), resulting in migration rates of 218 m/year (0.22 km/year) and <0.5 m/year, respectively. In addition, freshwater vegetation expanded in Atchafalaya Basin since 1949 compared to migration of intermediate and brackish marshes landward in the Terrebonne Basin. Changes in salt marsh vegetation patterns were very distinct in these two basins with gain of 25 % in the Terrebonne Basin compared to 90 % decrease in the Atchafalaya Basin since 1949. These shifts in vegetation types as L:W ratio decreases with reduced sediment input and increase in salinity also coincide with an increase in wind fetch in Terrebonne Bay. In the upper Terrebonne Bay, where the largest landward migration of the 50 % L:W ratio isopleth occurred, we estimate that the wave power has increased by 50–100 % from 1932 to 2010, as the bathymetric and topographic conditions changed, and increase in maximum storm-surge height also increased owing to the landward migration of the L:W ratio isopleth. We argue that this balance of land relative to water in this delta provides a much clearer understanding of increased flood risk from tropical cyclones rather than just estimates of areal land loss. We describe how coastal deltaic basins of the MRDP can be used as experimental landscapes to provide insights into how varying degrees of sediment delivery to coastal deltaic floodplains change flooding risks of a sinking delta using landward migrations of 50 % L:W isopleths. The nonlinear response of migrating L:W isopleths as wind fetch increases is a critical feedback effect that should influence human river-management decisions in deltaic coast. Changes in land area alone do not capture how corresponding landscape degradation and increased water area can lead to exponential increase in flood risk to human populations in low-lying coastal regions. Reduced land formation in coastal deltaic basins (measured by changes in the land:water ratio) can contribute significantly to increasing flood risks by removing the negative feedback of wetlands on wave and storm-surge that occur during extreme weather events. Increased flood risks will promote population migration as human risks associated with living in a deltaic landscape increase, as land is submerged and coastal inundation threats rise. These system linkages in dynamic deltaic coasts define a balance of river management and human settlement dependent on a certain level of land area within coastal deltaic basins (L).     

Long-term ground penetrating radar monitoring of a small volume DNAPL release in a natural groundwater flow field

An earlier field experiment at Canadian Forces Base Borden by Brewster and Annan [Geophysics 59 (1994) 1211] clearly demonstrated the capability of ground penetrating radar (GPR) reflection profiling to detect and monitor the formation of DNAPL layers in the subsurface. Their experiment involved a large volume release (770 L) of tetrachloroethylene into a portion of the sand aquifer that was hydraulically isolated from groundwater flow by sheet pile walls. In this study, we evaluated the ability of GPR profiling to detect and monitor much smaller volume releases (50 L). No subsurface confining structure was used in this experiment; hence, the DNAPL impacted zone was subjected to the natural groundwater flow regime. This condition allowed us to geophysically monitor the DNAPL mass loss over a 66 month period. Reflectivity variations on the GPR profiles were used to infer the presence and evolution of the solvent layers. GPR imaging found significant reflectivity increases due to solvent layer formation during the two week period immediately after the release. These results demonstrated the capacity of GPR profiling for the detection and monitoring of lesser volume DNAPL releases that are more representative of small-scale industrial spills. The GPR imaged solvent layers subsequently reduced in both areal extent and reflectivity after 29 months and almost completely disappeared by the end of the 66 month monitoring period. Total DNAPL mass estimates based on GPR profiling data indicated that the solvent mass was reduced to 34%-36% of its maximum value after 29 months; only 4%-9% of the solvent mass remained in the study area after 66 months. These results are consistent with independent hydrogeological estimates of remaining DNAPL mass based on the downgradient monitoring of the dissolved solvent phase. Hence, we have concluded that the long-term GPR reflectivity changes of the DNAPL layers are likely the result from the dissolution of chlorinated solvents residing in those layers. The long-term monitoring results demonstrated that GPR profiling is a promising non-invasive method for use at DNAPL contaminated sites in sandy aquifers where temporal information about immiscible contaminant mass depletion due to either natural flow or remediation is needed. However, our results also indicated that the GPR signature of older DNAPL impacted zones may not differ greatly from the uncontaminated background if significant mass reduction due to dissolution has occurred.     

Impact of primary safety belt laws on alcohol-related front-seat occupant fatalities: five case studies

OBJECTIVE: Impaired drivers and other high-risk road users are less likely to use their safety belts, thus increasing the risk of fatal injury in the event of a crash. Although safety belt laws have been shown to increase wearing rates for daytime non-crash-involved drivers and their front-seat passengers, little evidence is available on the effect these laws have on belt usage by crash-involved drinking drivers and their passengers. METHODS: This study evaluated the influence of primary safety belt law upgrades from secondary laws on front-seat occupants of passenger cars driven by drinking drivers in fatal crashes in five states: California, Illinois, Maryland, Michigan, and Washington. The outcome measures used to evaluate these law upgrades were (1) the change in safety belt usage rates of front-seat occupants in passenger cars driven by drinking drivers in fatal crashes and (2) the change in alcohol-related front-seat occupant fatalities in passenger cars driven by drinking drivers. RESULTS: Four of the five states demonstrated increases in safety belt use by front-seat occupants of passenger cars of drinking drivers in fatal crashes following the upgrade to primary safety belt laws. Three states (California, Michigan, and Washington) experienced significant reductions in the number of front-seat occupant fatalities in vehicles driven by drinking drivers. CONCLUSIONS: The adoption of primary law upgrades was associated with significant increases in safety belt use (four of five states) and significant reductions in fatalities among high-risk occupants (i.e., front-seat occupants involved in fatal crashes in vehicles driven by drinking drivers) in three of the five states studied.     

Absorption cross-sections of atmospheric constituents: NO2, O2, and H2O

Absorption spectroscopy, which is widely used for concentration measurements of tropospheric and stratospheric compounds, requires precise values of the absorption cross-sections of the measured species. NO₂, O₂ and its collision-induced absorption spectrum, and H₂O absorption cross-sections have been measured at temperature and pressure conditions prevailing in the Earth’s atmosphere. Corrections to the generally accepted analysis procedures used to resolve the convolution problem are also proposed.     

Dissolution and solubility of trace metals from natural and anthropogenic aerosol particulate matter

An open flow reactor is used to simulate the dissolution process of mineral aerosol particles in atmospheric water droplets. Data on dissolution kinetic and solubility are provided for the major trace metals from two kinds of matrix: alumino-silicated and carbonaceous sample. The results emphasise that the metals contained in the carbonaceous aerosols are easier dissolved than in the alumino-silicated particles. The released concentrations are not related to the total metal composition or the origin of particles, but are directly associated with the type of liaisons whereby the metals are bound in the solid matrix. Thus, the metals coming from carbonaceous particles are adsorbed impurities or salts and hence are very soluble and with a dissolution hardly dependent on pH, whereas the metals dissolved from alumino-silicated particles are less soluble, notably the ones constitutive of the matrix network (Fe, Mn), and with a dissolution highly influenced by pH. Consequently, in the regions with an anthropogenic influence, the dissolved concentrations of metals found in the atmospheric waters are mainly governed by the elemental carbon content. Moreover, it appears that the dissolution kinetic of metals is not constant as a function of time. The dissolution rates are very rapid in the first 20 min of leaching and then they are stabilised to lower values in comparison to initial rates. By consequence, the total dissolved metal content is provided after the first 20 min of the droplet lifetime. For this reason, the effects of trace metals on the atmospheric aqueous chemistry and as atmospheric wet input to the marine biota are maximal for "aged" droplets.     

Multi-generation cadmium acclimation and tolerance in Daphnia magna Straus

The cladoceran Daphnia magna was acclimated for seven generations to cadmium concentrations ranging from 0 (control) to 250 microg/l Cd (corresponding to a free ion activity of 4.60 nM Cd2+). Acute and chronic cadmium tolerance as well as cadmium accumulation were monitored as a function of acclimation time. After two to three generations of acclimation to concentrations ranging from 0.23 to 1.11 nM Cd2+ increases in acute tolerance were maximal (factor 7.2) and significant. Acclimation for seven generations to the same acclimation concentrations did result in an increased chronic cadmium tolerance (21 days EC50 values increased). Organisms acclimated to 1.93 nM Cd2+ were equally or more sensitive than non-acclimated daphnids in acute and chronic toxicity tests. Cadmium contents in D. magna increased significantly as a function of the acclimation concentration. Maximum body burdens of 236+/-30 microg Cd/g dry weight were measured in organisms exposed to 4.60 nM Cd2+, but detoxification mechanisms were only successful up to 82+/-20 microg Cd/g dry weight as this concentration did not cause major decreases in survival and reproduction in chronic toxicity tests. As the potential positive effect of acclimation on cadmium tolerance disappeared with successive acclimation generations and increasing acclimation concentrations, it is concluded that multi-generation acclimation studies are important for the evaluation of the long-term effects of environmental toxicants.     

‘Management Standards’ and work-related stress in Great Britain: Progress on their implementation

The aim of this paper is to identify what constituted barriers to progress in the implementation of the Management Standards for preventing and reducing work-related stress nationally, an approach advocated by the Health and Safety Executive in Great Britain. Data were collected from more than 100 public sector organisations through inspector visits and research interviews. Findings show that under supportive contexts, organisations were able to follow the process of a stepwise method for assessing psychosocial risks and implementing interventions using HSE assessment tools and guidance. Main enabling factors included the active and visible support from senior management, human resource departments, and line managers; regular communications on progress, sufficient organisational capability in terms of resources and expertise; departmental/team level assessment as opposed to an overall corporate wide assessment, and involvement of key stakeholders (e.g. Trade Union, employees). Some of the critical barriers across many public sector organisations included in this study were: major or on-going organisational changes; lack of organisational capability; and the resource intensive aspect of the method requiring focus groups in addition to stress survey data. Implications of the findings for policy development are discussed.