The efficiency of using non-culpable crash-claim involvements from insurance data as a means of estimating travel exposure for road user sub-groups

Introduction

Induced exposure has a long history of development and usage in traffic safety research but a major question has always concerned the extent to which the accumulation of culpable and non-culpable involvements can be considered independent.

Method

Culpability assessments of 32,630 vehicles' crash-claim involvements adjudicated by insurance adjusters were matched with vehicle odometer readings taken at emission testing using consistent identification of vehicles and principal operators over a 5-year period.

Result

It was found that the accumulation of culpable crash involvements was not entirely independent of that for non-culpable involvements. However, the rate of non-culpable involvements was determined to be an acceptable surrogate for travel exposure rate where sample sizes were large.

Discussion

The relationship between the rate of non-culpable involvements and the rate of travel exposure for data subsets when both were normalized by the overall sample rates was reminiscent of an accident-volume curve for roadway locations in traffic engineering theory. This suggested that only a portion of non-culpable involvements actually related directly to travel and this lead to a correction factor that could be applied.

Impact on Industry

While lack of independence of involvement rates may be problematic for a direct risk ratio application, it does not invalidate the use of non-culpable involvements to predict travel. For insurers that have a need to estimate travel amounts for different driver/vehicle groups as part of the insurance rating purposes, this can be a useful application.     

A Novel Method for Mapping Critical Loads Across a River Network: Application to the River Dart,Southwest England

To date, estimates of freshwater critical loads have beenbased on a single sample site within a given area, in theUK the `most sensitive' surface water in each 10 km gridsquare. The critical loads obtained are thus highlydependent on the sites chosen, and at a relatively coarsespatial resolution. To produce a higher resolutioncritical load assessment, the PEARLS (Prediction ofAcidification and Recovery on a Landscape Scale)procedure has been used to estimate critical loads acrossa large (248 km²), partially acid-sensitivecatchment in Southwest England. PEARLS utilises availablesoils and land-use databases, and sampled streamchemistry data, to derive characteristic runoffcompositions for a set of landscape types. Mixingequations are then used to calculate runoff chemistry,and subsequently critical loads, throughout the streamnetwork. Results show major spatial variability, withcritical loads lowest in streams draining peat-moorlandheadwaters, and generally increasing downstream asagricultural land contributes an increasing proportion ofrunoff. The 5th percentile freshwater critical loadfor the catchment is estimated at 0.29 keq H⁺ ha^-1yr^-1,and critical loads are exceeded for around 40% of totalstream length. The PEARLS methodology provides a novelopportunity to assess the spatial variability infreshwater critical loads, and to provide estimates ofexceedance at whole catchment scale. It has potentialapplication in the assessment of surface watersensitivity to acidification across wider areas in the UKand elsewhere.     

Do national levels of individualism and internal locus of control relate to well‐being: an ecological level international study

Data were collected from managers in 24 nations/territories on work locus of control (LOC), individualism–collectivism (I–C), and well‐being (job satisfaction, absence of psychological strain, and absence of physical strain). There were significant mean differences across samples on all five of these measures, and consistent with our hypothesis, at the ecological or sample mean level well‐being was associated with an internal locus of control. However, contrary to our hypothesis, well‐being was not associated with I–C, despite a strong correlation between I–C and LOC. Findings at the ecological level were consistent with the literature concerning the salutary effects of control on well‐being. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Monitoring individual exposure. Measurements of volatile organic compounds in breathing-zone air, drinking water, and exhaled breath

Methods for determining individual exposure to volatile organic compounds (VOC) during normal daily activities were field tested on university student volunteers in Texas and North Carolina. The equipment tested included a personal monitor employing Tenax GC® to collect organic vapors for later analysis by GC-MS, and a specially designed spirometer for collecting samples of expired human breath on duplicate Tenax cartridges. The personal monitor and spirometer proved feasible for collecting abundant quantitative data on most of the 15 target organics. Air exposures to many VOC varied widely, sometimes over three orders of magnitude, among students on the same campus who had been monitored over the same time period and day. A log-linear relationship between breathing-zone air exposures and concentrations in exhaled breath was suggested for three chemicals: tetrachloroethylene, 1,1,1-trichloroethane, and vinylidene chloride. Air was the main route of exposure for all target compounds except the two trihalomethanes (chloroform and bromodichloromethane), which were transmitted mainly through water. Estimated total daily intake through air and water of the target organics ranged from 0.3 to 12.6 mg, with 1,1,1-trichloroethane at the highest concentrations in both geographic areas.     

Patterns of Avian Nest Predators and a Brood Parasite Among Restored Riparian Habitats in Agricultural Watersheds

In fragmented edge-dominated landscapes, nest predation and brood parasitism may reduce avian reproductive success and, ultimately, populations of some passerine species. In the fragmented agroecosystem of northwest Mississippi, placement of drop-pipe structures has been used as a restoration technique for abating gully erosion along stream banks. These actions have formed small herbaceous and woody habitat extensions into former agricultural lands. We quantified species relative abundances, species richness, and evenness of avian nest predators and a brood parasite within four categories of constructed habitat resulting from drop-pipe installation. Differences in the abundance of two nest predators, cotton mouse (Peromyscus gossypinus) and blue jay (Cyanocitta cristata), were observed among constructed habitats. However, relative abundances of other predators such as common grackle (Quiscalus quiscula), American crow (Corvus brachyrhynchos), and hispid cotton rat (Sigmodon hispidus), and the obligate brood parasite brown-headed cowbird (Molothrus ater) did not differ among four habitat categories. Although species richness, abundance, and evenness of potential nest predators were generally similar among the constructed habitats, predator species composition varied, suggesting that these habitats supported different predator communities. This difference is important because as each predator species is added to or deleted from the community, variation may occur in the framework of prey search methods, predator strategies, and potentially overall predation pressure. We suggest that land managers using drop-pipes as part of stream restoration projects allow for the development of the constructed habitat with the largest area and greatest vegetative structure.     

On the propagation of error in air pollution measurements

Four methods for estimating the uncertainties in air pollution measurements are outlined. The approaches are: analytical solution-approximation; application of distribution theory; experimentation; and simulation. The advantages and disadvantages of each method are illustrated using data from High-Volume air samplers, the instrument most commonly used for monitoring ambient concentrations of airborne particles.Dr Evans is Assistant Professor of Environmental Science and Mr Kinney is a doctoral candidate in the Department of Environmental Science and Physiology, Harvard School of Public Health. Dr Cooper is at the Manufacturing Research Laboratory, Thomas J. Watson Research Center, IBM, Yorktown Heights, NY.     

Mercury bioaccumulation in organisms from three Puerto Rican estuaries

We analyzed mercury levels in shrimp (Palaemonetes sp.), Blue Crabs (Callinectes sp.), fish (Tarpon Megalops atlantica and Tilapia Tilapia mossambica), lizards (Ameiva exsul), Cattle Egret (Bubulcus ibis) and Moorhen (Gallinula chloropus) in three estuaries in Puerto Rico in 1988. There were no quantifiable concentrations greater than the method detection limit of mercury in shrimp, crabs and lizards from any site. Mercury levels were also below detection limits in Tilapia, except for specimens collected at Frontera Creek, allegedly contaminated with mercury. However, mercury levels ranged from 92–238 g/kg (wet weight) in Tarpon, a predaceous fish that feeds on smaller fish. Few of the birds had detectable levels of mercury. Our results indicate relatively low concentrations of mercury in biota collected in all of the three estuaries at most trophic levels, although 10 of 12 Tarpon fillet samples from Frontera had detectable mercury compared to 3 of 12 fillet samples for the other two lagoons.This project was partially funded by an EPA consent decree (Dynamac, Inc.) and NIEHS grant (ESO 5022) to EOSHI.     

Establishing a Context for River Rehabilitation, North Fork Gunnison River, Colorado

Initial river rehabilitation efforts along the North Fork Gunnison River in Colorado focused on the use of in-stream structures and channel stabilization to create a single-thread channel with pools along a braided river. These efforts were based on the assumption that the river’s braided planform results primarily from land use during the past century. In order to establish a context for further rehabilitation, we evaluated the possibility that the river might be braided as a result of processes independent of land use. We estimated volume, grain-size distribution, and lithology of sediment sources along the river corridor and evaluated the planform stability of the river during the past century using historical sources, aerial photographs covering 1939–1997, and comparison of bankfull discharge and gradient in the study area to values published for braided and meandering rivers. Our results indicate that the North Fork Gunnison River has been primarily braided in its lower reaches during the past few hundred years, although the channel planform tends toward a single-thread channel during decades of lower precipitation and discharge. Although land use is not the primary cause of braiding along the North Fork Gunnison River, it has decreased channel stability, and rehabilitation efforts should be designed to reduce these effects. Our results illustrate the importance of planning river rehabilitation measures within a historical context that accounts for both catchment-scale and reach-scale controls on channel processes and planform.