Evaluation of theories and calculation tools in ecology

The concept of validation is inappropriate for the evaluation of ecological models. Classification of models into logical, theoretical, and calculation tool (predictive) types provides a sounder basis for choosing an evaluation technique. The dangers of model “tuning” are presented.     

An assessment methodology for successional systems. II. Statistical tests and specific examples

This paper presents a dynamic framework for environmental assessment when the system under study is undergoing successional change. Successional differences between sites for which one wishes to detect a difference because of a treatment are essentially confounding factors. We show how successional changes over the study period or resulting from differences in study site plot ages can be factored out by developing a null model of expected behavior over time. The null model for change in state with time is characterized in terms of a stochastic envelope around a nominal trajectory. Specific tests for the detection of trends associated with succession are described and illustrated on example data. It is concluded that the methods developed work particularly well for laboratory microcosm data.     

Nutrient and trace elements in soil and desert vegetation of southern Idaho

Concentrations of thirty elements were measured in strong-acid extracts of soil, sagebrush (Artemisia tridentata spp.) leaves and perennial grass from the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory (INEL) and two reference sites in southern Idaho. A bicarbonate-chelating extract of soil was used to estimate plant-available concentrations. The results provide baseline data prior to start-up of a coal-fired steam generation facility on the INEL and other developments in the region. In addition, existing impact from effluents from thirty years of a nuclear fuel reprocessing facility on the INEL was evaluated. Based on the spatial distribution of element concentrations, as well as comparison with references sites, we conclude that concentrations of Zn, and perhaps Ni, Cd, and V, are currently elevated around the fuel reprocessing facility. The spatial distribution of these elements is similar to that of ¹³⁷Cs in soil, a radionuclide which is emitted by the facility. Sagebrush and soil appear more responsive than perennial grass for long-term monitoring of element concentrations in this semi-arid environment.     

SATELLITE DETECTION OF SEICHES IN GREAT SALT LAKE,UTAH1

ABSTRACT: On June 15, 1977, an unusual brightness anomaly was detected in the north arm of Great Salt Lake, Utah, on NOAA-5 Very High Resolution Radiometer (VHRR) visible band imagery and on Landsat-2 multispectral visual band imagery. Retrospective inspection of NOAA-3, 4, and 5 satellite imagery from 1974–77 revealed 12 previous cases of the anomaly, whereas post monitoring documented nine other cases through May 1978. Comparison of lake levels in the north arm with meteorological parameters leads to the conclusion that the anomalous brightness is associated with wind induced seiches in the north arm. Apparently the wind induces a lower water depth, turbulence, and mixing throughout the water column in the western third of the north arm, thus increasing the brightness of the surface waters chiefly from sediment resuspension.     

PATTERNS OF WATERSHED URBANIZATION AND IMPACTS ON WATER QUALITY1

ABSTRACT: Urban runoff contributes to nonpoint source pollution, but there is little understanding of the way that pattern and extent of urbanization contributes to this problem. Indicators of type and density of urbanization and access to municipal services were examined in six urban watersheds in Durham, North Carolina. Principal components analysis (PCA) was used to identify patterns in the distribution of these variables across the urban landscape. While spatial variation in urban environments is not perfectly captured by any one variable, the results suggest that most of the variation can be explained using several variables related to the extent and distribution of urban development. Multiple linear regression models were fit to relate these urbanization indicators to total phosphorus, total kjeldahl nitrogen, total suspended solids, and fecal coliforms. Development density was correlated to decreased water quality in each of the models. Indicators of urbanization type such as the house age, amount of contiguous impervious surface, and stormwater connectivity explained additional variation. In the nutrient models, access to city services was also an important factor. The results indicate that while urbanization density is important in predicting water quality, indicators of urbanization type and access to city services help explain additional variation in the models.     

Decomposition and plant-available nitrogen in biosolids: laboratory studies,field studies,and computer simulation

This research combines laboratory and field studies with computer simulation to characterize the amount of plant-available nitrogen (PAN) released when municipal biosolids are land-applied to agronomic crops. In the laboratory studies, biosolids were incubated in or on soil from the land application sites. Mean biosolids total C, organic N, and C to N ratio were 292 g kg(-1), 41.7 g kg(-1), and 7.5, respectively. Based on CO2 evolution at 25 degrees C and optimum soil moisture, 27 of the 37 biosolids-soil combinations had two decomposition phases. The mean rapid and slow fraction rate constants were 0.021 and 0.0015 d(-1), respectively, and the rapid fraction contained 23% of the total C assuming sequential decomposition. Where only one decomposition phase existed, the mean first order rate constant was 0.0046 d(-1). The mean rate constant for biosolids stored in lagoons for an extended time was 0.00097 d(-1). The only treatment process that was related to biosolids treatment was stabilization by storage in a lagoon. Biosolids addition rates (dry basis) ranged from 1.3 to 33.8 Mg ha(-1) with a mean value of 10.6 Mg ha(-1). A relationship between fertilizer N rate and crop response was used to estimate observed PAN at each site. Mean observed PAN during the growing season was 18.9 kg N Mg(-1) or 37% of the biosolids total N. Observed PAN was linearly related to biosolids total N. Predicted PAN using the computer model Decomposition, actual growing-season weather, actual analytical data, and laboratory decomposition kinetics compared well with observed PAN. The mean computer model prediction of growing-season PAN was 19.2 kg N Mg(-1) and the slope of the regression between predicted and observed PAN was not significantly different from unity. Predicted PAN obtained using mean decomposition kinetics was related to predicted PAN using actual decomposition kinetics suggesting that mean rate constants, actual weather, and actual analytical data could be used in estimation of PAN. There was a linear relationship between predicted N mineralization for the growing season and for the first year. For this study, the mean values for the growing season and year were 27 and 37% of the organic N, respectively.     

Predator inspection behaviour in three-spined sticklebacks (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Gasterosteus aculeatus</Emphasis>): body size,local predation pressure and cooperation

The apparently maladaptive tendency of fish to approach and inspect potential predators has been explained in terms of useful information gathering or as a signal to the predator that it has been seen. We examined this behaviour in 16 populations of wild-caught stickleback (Gasterosteus aculeatus) from ponds with and without predatory perch (Perca fluviatilis). Three large and three small individuals per population were each exposed to three model predators differing in realism. A final cooperative treatment entailed pairing subjects with a second individual from the same population, but of the alternative size class, during predator presentation. As might be expected, predator inspection behaviour was much greater in the predator-sympatric populations, and only these fish increased their level of inspection as the models became incrementally more realistic. This suggests that reductions occur in the level of costly inspection behaviour in populations without predators. Subject body size had no effect on inspection effort, which suggests a limited role for experience (we assumed larger fish to be older than smaller fish), at least over the relative age differences utilized. However, small predator-sympatric fish were the only subjects to increase inspection significantly when in a cooperative context, perhaps reflecting the inherent value of a relatively larger partner in this context. These results confirm that levels of predator inspection are both population- and situation-dependent, suggesting a trade-off in the potential costs and benefits of this behaviour.Communicated by C. St. Mary     

Lead, Zinc, Copper, and Cadmium in Fish and Sediments from the Big River and Flat River Creek of Missouri's Old Lead Belt

The Old Lead Belt of Missouri was a major lead-producing region for over a century. Several large tailings piles and other industrial wastes remain behind, though mining operations in the region ceased in 1972. Samples of stream sediments and fish were collected from established sites on the Big River and Flat River Creek over a 3-year period from 1998 to 2000 to evaluate ongoing remediation efforts and determine the current impact of residual mining wastes. Benthic sediments and fish taken in the vicinity of inactive industrial sites were found to contain elevated concentrations of Pb, Zn, Cu, and Cd. Concentrations of Pb and Zn in fillets of suckers and sunfish, as well as in whole bodies of sunfish, correlate well with metal concentrations observed in surficial sediments. The results of analyses provide valuable quantitative information regarding specific sources, current levels of contamination, potential risk to public health, and will allow more accurate assessment of continuing remediation efforts.     

Variable-density groundwater flow and solute transport in heterogeneous porous media: approaches, resolutions and future challenges

In certain hydrogeological situations, fluid density variations occur because of changes in the solute or colloidal concentration, temperature, and pressure of the groundwater. These include seawater intrusion, high-level radioactive waste disposal, groundwater contamination, and geothermal energy production. When the density of the invading fluid is greater than that of the ambient one, density-driven free convection can lead to transport of heat and solutes over larger spatial scales and significantly shorter time scales than compared with diffusion alone. Beginning with the work of Lord Rayleigh in 1916, thermal and solute instabilities in homogeneous media have been studied in detail for almost a century. Recently, these theoretical and experimental studies have been applied in the study of groundwater phenomena, where the assumptions of homogeneity and isotropy rarely, if ever, apply. The critical role that heterogeneity plays in the onset as well as the growth and/or decay of convective motion is discussed by way of a review of pertinent literature and numerical simulations performed using a variable-density flow and solute transport numerical code. Different styles of heterogeneity are considered and range from continuously "trending" heterogeneity (sinusoidal and stochastic permeability distributions) to discretely fractured geologic media. Results indicate that both the onset of instabilities and their subsequent growth and decay are intimately related to the structure and variance of the permeability field. While disordered heterogeneity tends to dissipate convection through dispersive mixing, an ordered heterogeneity (e.g., sets of vertical fractures) allows instabilities to propagate at modest combinations of fracture aperture and separation distances. Despite a clearer understanding of the processes that control the onset and propagation of instabilities, resultant plume patterns and their migration rates and pathways do not appear amenable to prediction at present. The classical Rayleigh number used to predict the occurrence of instabilities fails, in most cases, when heterogeneous conditions prevail. The incorporation of key characteristics of the heterogeneous permeability field into relevant stability criteria and numerical models remains a challenge for future research.     

Formation of involatile methylantimony species by Clostridium spp

Trimethylantimony was detected by gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (GC-MS) in the headspace of a soil enrichment culture designed to promote growth of clostridia. Clostridial isolates from the soil enrichment culture were shown to biomethylate inorganic antimony in monseptic culture, using hydride generation-gas chromatographyatomic absorption spectrometry (HG-GC-AAS). GC-MS profiles of headspace gases from soil enrichment cultures shown to generate trimethylantimony, were used to select characterised Clostridium spp for assessment of antimony biomethylation capability. Involatile methylantimony species (up to 21 microg Sb dm(-3)) were detected by HG-GC-AAS in the medium of monoseptic cultures of C. acetobutylicum, C. butyricum and C. cochlearium. The relative quantities of involatile mono-, di- and trimethylantimony species produced over the course of a 28-day cultivation period is consistent with trimethylantimony oxide being a final product of antimony biomethylation by these bacteria, with mono- and dimethylantimony species appearing transiently in the cultures as intermediates of an antimony biomethylation pathway. Clostridia may be the principal agents of antimony biomethylation in methanogenic environments and could give rise to methylated forms of antimony in both the aqueous and gaseous phases.