Addressing onsite sampling in recreation site choice models

Independent experts and politicians have criticized statistical analyses of recreation behavior, which rely upon onsite samples due to their potential for biased inference. The use of onsite sampling usually reflects data or budgetary constraints, but can lead to two primary forms of bias in site choice models. First, the strategy entails sampling site choices rather than sampling individuals—a form of bias called endogenous stratification. Under these conditions, sample choices may not reflect the site choices of the true population. Second, exogenous attributes of the individuals sampled onsite may differ from the attributes of individuals in the population—the most common form in recreation demand is avidity bias. We propose addressing these biases by combining two the existing methods: Weighted Exogenous Stratification Maximum Likelihood estimation and propensity score estimation. We use the National Marine Fisheries Service's Marine Recreational Fishing Statistics Survey to illustrate methods of bias reduction, employing both simulated and empirical applications. We find that propensity score based weights can significantly reduce bias in estimation. Our results indicate that failure to account for these biases can overstate anglers' willingness to pay for improvements in fishing catch, but weighted models exhibit higher variance of parameter estimates and willingness to pay.     

Alternative stable states and phase shifts in coral reefs under anthropogenic stress

Ecosystems with alternative stable states (ASS) may shift discontinuously from one stable state to another as environmental parameters cross a threshold. Reversal can then be difficult due to hysteresis effects. This contrasts with continuous state changes in response to changing environmental parameters, which are less difficult to reverse. Worldwide degradation of coral reefs, involving "phase shifts" from coral to algal dominance, highlights the pressing need to determine the likelihood of discontinuous phase shifts in coral reefs, in contrast to continuous shifts with no ASS. However, there is little evidence either for or against the existence of ASS for coral reefs. We use dynamic models to investigate the likelihood of continuous and discontinuous phase shifts in coral reefs subject to sustained environmental perturbation by fishing, nutrification, and sedimentation. Our modeling results suggest that coral reefs with or without anthropogenic stress can exhibit ASS, such that discontinuous phase shifts can occur. We also find evidence to support the view that high macroalgal growth rates and low grazing rates on macroalgae favor ASS in coral reefs. Further, our results suggest that the three stressors studied, either alone or in combination, can increase the likelihood of both continuous and discontinuous phase shifts by altering the competitive balance between corals and algae. However, in contrast to continuous phase shifts, we find that discontinuous shifts occur only in model coral reefs with parameter values near the extremes of their empirically determined ranges. This suggests that continuous shifts are more likely than discontinuous shifts in coral reefs. Our results also suggest that, for ecosystems in general, tackling multiple human stressors simultaneously maximizes resilience to phase shifts, ASS, and hysteresis, leading to improvements in ecosystem health and functioning.     

Early nutritional conditions, growth trajectories and mate choice: does compensatory growth lead to a reduction in adult sexual attractiveness?

It is well documented that poor early nutrition can have profound negative effects on adult life-history traits. However, it has also been demonstrated that organisms can undergo compensatory resource allocation strategies (such as an accelerated growth rate) if food availability improves, so as to mitigate the effects of the poor early conditions. Previous research has indicated that elevated growth rates can incur costs in the longer term, such as an increased rate of senescence and shorter lifespan. We tested whether a phase of compensatory growth after a period of reduced food availability earlier in life affected the sexual attractiveness of adult male green swordtails Xiphophorus helleri, a species in which it has previously been documented that females prefer larger-bodied and longer-tailed males. The experiment compared the attractiveness of size-matched brothers that had experienced contrasting growth trajectories as juveniles; the experiments were initially conducted in the middle of a male’s sexually reproductive life and were then repeated towards the very end of life. At both ages, males that had undergone compensatory growth were equally as attractive as their brothers that had grown normally. These results suggest that the growth compensation benefits males through an increase in their attractiveness over that which they would have had if they had remained on their original growth trajectory. The lack of change in relative attractiveness with age indicates that the compensation does not cause greater deterioration in secondary sexual characters at older ages than in continuously well-fed males.     

Food webs and intraguild predation: community interactions of a native mesocarnivore

Trophic level interactions between predators create complex relationships such as intraguild predation. Theoretical research has predicted two possible paths to stability in intraguild systems: intermediate predators either outcompete higher-order predators for shared resources or select habitat based on security. The effects of intraguild predation on intermediate mammalian predators such as swift foxes (Vulpes velox) are not well understood. We examined the relationships between swift foxes and both their predators and prey, as well the effect of vegetation structure on swift fox-coyote (Canis latrans) interactions, between August 2001 and August 2004. In a natural experiment created by the Pinon Canyon Maneuver Site in southeastern Colorado, USA, we documented swift fox survival and density in a variety of landscapes and compared these parameters in relation to prey availability, coyote abundance, and vegetation structure. Swift fox density varied significantly between study sites, while survival did not. Coyote abundance was positively related to the basal prey species and vegetation structure, while swift fox density was negatively related to coyote abundance, basal prey species, and vegetation structure. Our results support the prediction that, under intraguild predation in terrestrial systems, top predator distribution matches resource availability (resource match), while intermediate predator distribution inversely matches predation risk (safety match). While predation by coyotes may be the specific cause of swift fox mortality in this system, the more general mechanism appears to be exposure to predation moderated by shrub density.     

Population structure and life history of orange roughy (Hoplostethus atlanticus) in the SW Pacific: inferences from otolith chemistry

We examined site differences in the elemental composition of the primordium and ontogenetic variability of Sr in otoliths of fish from Australia and New Zealand and, as an out-group, the North Atlantic. Differences among sites in primordium composition are slight, but significant for all five elements assayed (Sr, Pb, Cu, Zn and Hg), but principally reflect differences between the North Atlantic and SW Pacific specimens, do not replicate for independent samples in the SW Pacific and constitute a poor “natural tag” in roughy, with <25% of fish successfully assigned to source location. However, mean Sr weight-fractions at the primordium showed similar latitudinal variation across sites in Australia, New Zealand and the Tasman Sea, indicating both spatially structured populations and a common structuring process across the region. Comparisons of ontogenetic variability of Sr in otoliths from juveniles and young adults within and between sites in the SW Pacific strongly support the hypothesis that variability in this element is site-specific and environmentally sensitive, although the environmental factors involved are not obvious. The otolith analysis confirms previous suggestions that juvenile and adult Hoplostethus atlanticus are relatively sedentary, but also indicates that the population sub-structuring by age within sites is more complex and there are likely to be more spawning areas in Australian waters than previously thought. More broadly, although single point analysis of otolith composition at the primordium resolves a population structure in roughy, alone it is not precise enough to test hypotheses about the processes causing this structure. Ontogenetic variability in Sr provides better resolution of spatial structure, even in a relatively homogenous marine environment like the deep ocean, and also provides insight into behavioural and ecological factors. Ontogenetic analyses of Sr in otoliths are expensive to obtain, require more effort in specimen preparation than single point analyses, and are difficult to compare statistically, but the increased information they yield warrants their broader consideration in marine species.     

The influence of intraguild predation on prey suppression and prey release: a meta-analysis

Intraguild predation (IGP) occurs when one predator species consumes another predator species with whom it also competes for shared prey. One question of interest to ecologists is whether multiple predator species suppress prey populations more than a single predator species, and whether this result varies with the presence of IGP. We conducted a meta-analysis to examine this question, and others, regarding the effects of IGP on prey suppression. When predators can potentially consume one another (mutual IGP), prey suppression is greater in the presence of one predator species than in the presence of multiple predator species; however, this result was not found for assemblages with unidirectional or no IGP. With unidirectional IGP, intermediate predators were generally more effective than the top predator at suppressing the shared prey, in agreement with IGP theory. Adding a top predator to an assemblage generally caused prey to be released from predation, while adding an intermediate predator caused prey populations to be suppressed. However, the effects of adding a top or intermediate predator depended on the effectiveness of these predators when they were alone. Effects of IGP varied across different ecosystems (e.g., lentic, lotic, marine, terrestrial invertebrate, and terrestrial vertebrate), with the strongest patterns being driven by terrestrial invertebrates. Finally, although IGP theory is based on equilibrium conditions, data from short-term experiments can inform us about systems that are dominated by transient dynamics. Moreover, short-term experiments may be connected in some way to equilibrium models if the predator and prey densities used in experiments approximate the equilibrium densities in nature.     

Four genes,morphology and ecology: distinguishing a new species of <Emphasis Type="Italic">Acesta</Emphasis> (Mollusca; Bivalvia) from the Gulf of Mexico

There is currently an active scientific debate about the most correct and efficient way to identify species. To date, few studies in the marine realm have combined the available taxonomic methods. In this study we have used morphology, ecology and molecular analyses to identify a new species within the bivalve genus Acesta. All four genes studied (12S, 16S, Cytb, COI) suggested that a common cold-seep species in the Gulf of Mexico, A. bullisi, should be divided into two distinct species. This conclusion was supported by morphological traits and by observations of ecological distribution. A. oophaga Järnegren, Schander and Young n. sp. is described here, and A. bullisi Vokes (Tulane Stud Geol 2:75–92, 1963) is re-described. This study shows that DNA barcoding in combination with traditional morphological and ecological analyses may be an important tools to identify hidden biodiversity among deep-water organisms such as bivalves.     

Stratified flow interactions with a suspended canopy

Field observations of the interactions between a stratified flow and a canopy suspended from the free surface above a solid boundary are described and analysed. Data were recorded in and around the canopy formed by a large long-line mussel farm. The canopy causes a partial blockage of the water flow, reducing velocities in the upper water column. Deceleration of the approaching flow results in a deepening of isopycnals upstream of the canopy. Energy considerations show that the potential for an approaching stratified flow to be diverted beneath a porous canopy is indicated by a densimetric Froude number. Strong stratification or low-velocities inhibit vertical diversion beneath the canopy, instead favouring a horizontal diversion around the sides. The effect on vertical mixing is also considered with a shear layer generated beneath the canopy and turbulence generated from drag within the canopy. In the observations, stratification is shown to be of sufficient strength to limit the effectiveness of the first mixing process, while the turbulence within the canopy is likely to enhance vertical exchange. Velocity and temperature microstructure measurements are used to investigate the effect of the canopy on turbulent dissipation and show that dissipation is enhanced within the canopy.     

Linking richness, community variability, and invasion resistance with patch size

The influence of community dynamics on the success or failure of an invasion is of considerable interest. What has not been explored is the influence of patch size on the outcomes of invasions for communities with the same species pool. Here we use an empirically validated spatial model of a marine epibenthic community to examine the effects of patch size on community variability, species richness, invasion, and the relationships between these variables. We found that the qualitative form of the relationship between community variability and species richness is determined by the size of the model patch. In small patches, variability decreases with species richness, but beyond a critical patch size, variability increases with increasing richness. This occurs because in large patches large, long-lived colonies attain sufficient size to minimize mortality and dominate the community, leading to decreased species richness and community variability. This mechanism cannot operate on smaller patches where the size of colonies is limited by the patch size and mortality is high irrespective of species identity. Further, invasion resistance is strongly correlated with community variability. Thus, the relationship between species richness and invasion resistance is also determined by patch size. These patterns are generated largely by an inverse relationship between colony size and mortality, and they depend on the spatial nature and patch size of the community. Our results suggest that a continuum of possible relationships can exist between species richness, community variability, invasion resistance, and area. These relationships are emergent behaviors generated by the individual properties of the particular component species of a community.     

Effects of urbanization on the population structure of freshwater turtles across the United States

Landscape‐scale alterations that accompany urbanization may negatively affect the population structure of wildlife species such as freshwater turtles. Changes to nesting sites and higher mortality rates due to vehicular collisions and increased predator populations may particularly affect immature turtles and mature female turtles. We hypothesized that the proportions of adult female and immature turtles in a population will negatively correlate with landscape urbanization. As a collaborative effort of the Ecological Research as Education Network (EREN), we sampled freshwater turtle populations in 11 states across the central and eastern United States. Contrary to expectations, we found a significant positive relationship between proportions of mature female painted turtles (Chrysemys picta) and urbanization. We did not detect a relationship between urbanization and proportions of immature turtles. Urbanization may alter the thermal environment of nesting sites such that more females are produced as urbanization increases. Our approach of creating a collaborative network of scientists and students at undergraduate institutions proved valuable in terms of testing our hypothesis over a large spatial scale while also allowing students to gain hands‐on experience in conservation science.