Import demand for Brazilian ethanol: a cross-country analysis

This study presents an empirical analysis of the import demand for Brazilian ethanol by its six major foreign buyers. The primary objectives of this study were to identify the economic factors affecting the demand for ethanol imports and to derive long-run price and income elasticities of import demand. These elasticities could be used to analyze the impact of government policies such as mandatory gasoline/ethanol blends and import tariffs. Import demand models were estimated with ordinary least squares (OLS), using quarterly time series data for the 1997–2007 time period. The results suggest that the factors influencing the import demand for ethanol vary across countries. Markets adopting mandatory blends of renewable fuels tend to have less price elastic import demand schedules. Ethanol imports were found to be price elastic and statistically significant in the Caribbean region (?1.66), Mexico (?2.08), Japan (?1.44) and Nigeria (?1.38), while import demand was price inelastic and not statistically different from zero in the US (?0.76) and Europe (?0.21). The regression results could not determine the impacts of import tariffs for the United States, Mexico and Nigeria on the quantity of imports because tariffs did not vary during the time period studied. Results show that mandatory gasoline/ethanol blends have been an important determinant of ethanol imports.     

Reliability and input-data induced uncertainty of the EPIC model to estimate climate change impact on sorghum yields in the U.S. Great Plains

Crop simulation models are frequently used to estimate the impact of climate change on crop production. However, few studies have evaluated the model performance in ways that most researchers practiced in climate impact studies. In this article, we examined the reliability of the EPIC model in simulating grain sorghum (Sorghum bicolor (L.) Moench) yields in the U.S. Great Plains under different climate scenarios, namely in years with normal or extreme temperature and precipitation. We also investigated model uncertainties introduced by input data that are not site-specific but commonly used or available for climate change studies. Historical field trial data of sorghum at the Mead Experimental Center, NE, were used for model evaluations. The results showed that overall model reliability was about 56%. The mean absolute relative error (absRE) was about 29%. The degree of accuracy and reliability varied with climate-classes and nitrogen (N)-treatments. The largest bias occurred in drought years (RE = ?25%) and the most unreliable results were found in N-0 treatment (reliability = 32%). There was more than 69% probability that input-data-induced uncertainties were limited to less than 20% of absRE. Our results support the application of the EPIC model to climate change impact studies in the U.S. Great Plains. However, efforts are needed to improve the accuracy in simulating crop responses to extreme water- and nitrogen-stressed conditions.     

Effects of different management strategies on long-term trends of Australian threatened and near-threatened mammals

Monitoring is critical to assess management effectiveness, but broadscale systematic assessments of monitoring to evaluate and improve recovery efforts are lacking. We compiled 1808 time series from 71 threatened and near-threatened terrestrial and volant mammal species and subspecies in Australia (48% of all threatened mammal taxa) to compare relative trends of populations subject to different management strategies. We adapted the Living Planet Index to develop the Threatened Species Index for Australian Mammals and track aggregate trends for all sampled threatened mammal populations and for small (<35 g), medium (35–5500 g), and large mammals (>5500 g) from 2000 to 2017. Unmanaged populations (42 taxa) declined by 63% on average; unmanaged small mammals exhibited the greatest declines (96%). Populations of 17 taxa in havens (islands and fenced areas that excluded or eliminated introduced red foxes [Vulpes vulpes] and domestic cats [Felis catus]) increased by 680%. Outside havens, populations undergoing sustained predator baiting initially declined by 75% but subsequently increased to 47% of their abundance in 2000. At sites where predators were not excluded or baited but other actions (e.g., fire management, introduced herbivore control) occurred, populations of small and medium mammals declined faster, but large mammals declined more slowly, than unmanaged populations. Only 13% of taxa had data for both unmanaged and managed populations; index comparisons for this subset showed that taxa with populations increasing inside havens declined outside havens but taxa with populations subject to predator baiting outside havens declined more slowly than populations with no management and then increased, whereas unmanaged populations continued to decline. More comprehensive and improved monitoring (particularly encompassing poorly represented management actions and taxonomic groups like bats and small mammals) is required to understand whether and where management has worked. Improved implementation of management for threats other than predation is critical to recover Australia's threatened mammals.     

Real-time PCR assay for detection and relative quantification of <Emphasis Type="Italic">Liocarcinus </Emphasis><Emphasis Type="Italic">depurator</Emphasis> larvae from plankton samples

Accurate species identification of decapod crustacean larvae is required to understand their population distributions, life cycle dynamics and interactions with their habitats. Analysis of plankton samples using morphological taxonomic methods and microscopy is time-consuming, requires highly skilled and trained operatives and may often be inaccurate. As complementary tools to classical identification methods, recent work has focused on the development of molecular approaches and shows their feasibility for species-specific identification. This study has developed real-time PCR assays utilising species-specific Taqman^® probes designed in the cytochrome oxidase I (COI) gene of Liocarcinus depurator, Necora puber, Carcinus maenas and Cancer pagurus. Our study then employed the probe and primers designed for L. depurator to obtain accurate identification and relative abundance estimates of L. depurator larvae in plankton samples collected between March 2005 and October 2006. Ranges of larval abundances were derived from a standard curve created from plankton samples spiked with a known number of larvae reared in the laboratory. Inhibition of the PCR reaction was shown to be an important factor and our results suggested that 0.1 ng of DNA as template provided accurate identification and avoided inhibition. Real-time PCR was shown to provide accurate species identification on unsorted plankton samples and could be suitable for the estimation of larval abundances in the plankton, although more work must be done to improve the accuracy of those estimations.     

Impact of curve construction and community dynamics on the species-time relationship

The species-time relationship (STR) describes how the species richness of a community increases with the time span over which the community is observed. This temporal scaling provides insight into theoretical questions on species diversity patterns as well as applied questions on the appropriate time scale for biodiversity assessments. To better understand STRs, we discuss the methods used to construct STRs in the literature and derive the impact of curve construction on STR properties. Using vegetation data from Mount St. Helens, Washington, USA, we illustrate the sensitivity of the STR to construction under colonization-dominated dynamics. This study highlights the importance of considering the type of STR when interpreting, comparing, and applying STRs, particularly in disturbed or successional systems.     

A Review of the Northern Ecosystem Initiative in Arctic Canada: Facilitating Arctic Ecosystem Research Through Traditional and Novel Approaches

The Canadian Arctic is undergoing considerable social and environmental change. Anthropogenic stressors on this sensitive environment include climate change, contaminants, resource extraction, tourism and increasing human populations. The Northern Ecosystem Initiative (NEI) is a program aimed at supporting the sustainability of northern communities, and at improving our understanding of how northern ecosystems respond to these environmental stressors. A key element of the NEI is to establish partnerships between all levels of government, non-governmental environmental agencies, and northern residents. The NEI is an important source of financial support critical for social and environmental scientists as well as northern residents and their community and regional organizations. Initiated in 1998, the NEI has supported numerous northern scientific and capacity-building projects, and has evaluated the information gained from this work to refine and focus its future support to address key information gaps and northern needs.     

Development and preparation of lead-containing paint films and diagnostic test materials

Lead in paint continues to be a threat to children's health in cities across the United States, which means there is an ongoing need for testing and analysis of paint. This ongoing analytical effort and especially development of new methods continue to drive the need for diagnostic testing materials that provide the analytical challenges of real-world paints. To this end, 31 different types of paint test materials were developed and prepared. Preparation of the materials included development of lead-containing paint films yielding an overall relative standard error for one individual test sample being less than 10%. The 31 diagnostic test materials prepared with these paint films included two lead pigments; lead concentrations from nominally 0 to 2.0 mg lead/cm(2) (0 to 5% lead by weight); overlayers of both "lead-free," oil-based and water-based paints; Al, Ba, and Mg as potential chemical interferents; red and black potential color interferents; and substrates of wood, metal, masonry, and plaster. These materials challenge each step in method development and evaluation, including paint sample collection and preparation, lead extraction, and measurement of solubilized lead. When the materials were used to test performance of a new lead-in-paint testing method based on extraction using a rotor/stator method and measurement using turbidimetry, the results agreed to within ±20% of the expected lead values for 30 out of 31 of the diagnostic test materials, thereby demonstrating their levels of quality and utility.     

Modeling spatio-temporal wildfire ignition point patterns

We analyze and model the structure of spatio-temporal wildfire ignitions in the St. Johns River Water Management District in northeastern Florida. Previous studies, based on the K-function and an assumption of homogeneity, have shown that wildfire events occur in clusters. We revisit this analysis based on an inhomogeneous K-function and argue that clustering is less important than initially thought. We also use K-cross functions to study multitype point patterns, both under homogeneity and inhomogeneity assumptions, and reach similar conclusions as above regarding the amount of clustering. Of particular interest is our finding that prescribed burns seem not to reduce significantly the occurrence of wildfires in the current or subsequent year over this large geographical region. Finally, we describe various point pattern models for the location of wildfires and investigate their adequacy by means of recent residual diagnostics.