Validating graph-based connectivity models with independent presence–absence and genetic data sets

Habitat connectivity is a key objective of current conservation policies and is commonly modeled by landscape graphs (i.e., sets of habitat patches [nodes] connected by potential dispersal paths [links]). These graphs are often built based on expert opinion or species distribution models (SDMs) and therefore lack empirical validation from data more closely reflecting functional connectivity. Accordingly, we tested whether landscape graphs reflect how habitat connectivity influences gene flow, which is one of the main ecoevolutionary processes. To that purpose, we modeled the habitat network of a forest bird (plumbeous warbler [Setophaga plumbea]) on Guadeloupe with graphs based on expert opinion, Jacobs’ specialization indices, and an SDM. We used genetic data (712 birds from 27 populations) to compute local genetic indices and pairwise genetic distances. Finally, we assessed the relationships between genetic distances or indices and cost distances or connectivity metrics with maximum-likelihood population-effects distance models and Spearman correlations between metrics. Overall, the landscape graphs reliably reflected the influence of connectivity on population genetic structure; validation R² was up to 0.30 and correlation coefficients were up to 0.71. Yet, the relationship among graph ecological relevance, data requirements, and construction and analysis methods was not straightforward because the graph based on the most complex construction method (species distribution modeling) sometimes had less ecological relevance than the others. Cross-validation methods and sensitivity analyzes allowed us to make the advantages and limitations of each construction method spatially explicit. We confirmed the relevance of landscape graphs for conservation modeling but recommend a case-specific consideration of the cost-effectiveness of their construction methods. We hope the replication of independent validation approaches across species and landscapes will strengthen the ecological relevance of connectivity models.     

Food sources used by sediment meiofauna in an intertidal Zostera noltii seagrass bed: a seasonal stable isotope study

In an intertidal Zostera noltii Hornem seagrass bed, food sources used by sediment meiofauna were determined seasonally by comparing stable isotope signatures (δ¹³C, δ¹⁵N) of sources with those of nematodes and copepods. Proportions of different carbon sources used by consumers were estimated using the SIAR mixing model on δ¹³C values. Contrary to δ¹⁵N values, food source mean δ¹³C values encompassed a large range, from −22.1 ‰ (suspended particulate organic matter) to −10.0 ‰ (Z. noltii roots). δ¹³C values of copepods (from −22.3 to −12.3 ‰) showed that they use many food sources (benthic and phytoplanktonic microalgae, Z. noltii matter). Nematode δ¹³C values ranged from −14.6 to −11.4 ‰, indicating a strong role of microphytobenthos and/or Z. noltii matter as carbon sources. The difference of food source uses between copepods and nematodes is discussed in light of source accessibility and availability.     

Monitoring and reporting attacks on education in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Somalia

The United Nations' Monitoring and Reporting Mechanism is charged with documenting six grave violations against children in a time of conflict, including attacks on schools. Many of these incidents, however, remain unreported across the globe. This study explores whether or not a local knowledge base of education and child protection actors in North and South Kivu Provinces, Democratic Republic of the Congo, and in Mogadishu, Somalia, could contribute to a more complete record of attacks on education in those areas. Hundreds of semi‐structured interviews were conducted with key informants across the three settings, and in total 432 attacks on education were documented. Purposive samples of these reports were verified and a large majority was confirmed. Local non‐governmental organisations and education institutions were most knowledgeable about these incidents, but most never reported them to a monitoring authority. The study concludes that attack surveillance and response were largely insufficient, and recommends investing in mechanisms that utilise local knowledge to address these shortcomings.     

Proposing an information criterion for individual-based models developed in a pattern-oriented modelling framework

Individual-based models (IBMs) have been improved in quality and reliability in recent years with an approach called pattern-oriented modelling (POM). POM proposes guidelines to develop models reproducing multiple patterns observed on the field and to test systematically how well the IBMs reproduce them. POM studies used generally traditional methods of goodness of fit such as the sum of squares evaluation or ad hoc comparisons of fitting errors and variations. Model selection, however, can be a rigorous statistical approach based on information theory and information criteria such as the Akaike's information criterion (AIC) or the deviance information criterion (DIC). So far, it has not been tried to link POM to these rigorous techniques. The main problems to achieve that are: (a) the difficulty to have likelihood functions for IBMs’ parameters and (b) the possibility to obtain posterior distributions of IBMs’ parameters given the patterns to reproduce. In a first part, this paper answers problem (a) by proposing and explaining how to calculate a deviance measure (POMDEV) for models developed in a context of POM. And while answering the second problem, a second part of the paper proposes an information criterion for model selection in a POM context (the pattern-oriented modelling information criterion: POMIC). This criterion does not yet have the same theoretical foundation as, e.g., AIC, but uses formal analogies to the DIC. In a third part POMIC is tested with a modelling exercise. This exercise shows the potential of POMIC to use multiple patterns for selecting among multiple potential submodels and eventually select the most parsimonious and well fitting model version. We conclude that POMIC, although being a heuristically derived approach, can greatly improve the POM framework.     

Strong link between coronavirus count and bad air: a case study of India

Environment, Development and Sustainability - The present study aims to highlight the contrast relationship between COVID-19 (Coronavirus Disease-2019) infections and air pollutants for the Indian...     

Learning from the application of nuclear probabilistic safety assessment to the chemical industry

This paper introduces the new approach of risk analysis established by the French Ministry of the Environment and develops the benefits of applying nuclear probabilistic safety assessment approaches to the chemical industry.In the aftermath of the AZF disaster in Toulouse on 21 September 2001, a new law was proposed by the French government asking for the investigation of all representative scenarios and the assessment of the probability of the resulting dangerous phenomena to demonstrate an acceptable level of safety. Therefore, any accident is investigated from a global point of view, according to its gravity and its probability.In 2000, the French Ministry of the Environment asked the Institute for Radiological Protection and Nuclear Safety (IRSN), and in particular its Systems and Risk Protection Assessment (SESPRI) and its Industrial Risks, Fire and Containment Assessment and Study (SERIC) departments, to conduct a Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) study of an LPG distribution facility, specially for the BLEVE scenario. This study has showed the power of PSA for defining and prioritizing actions to be carried out to improve safety of facilities; however, it requires credible data for reliability and failure of the equipment, not available in generic failure databases.Since 2007, IRSN has taken several initiatives in collaboration with operators in order to provide more precise and representative failure rates for main safety equipment, ready to use in future PSA relative to LPG plants.     

Amniocentesis rate and the detection of down syndrome and other chromosomal anomalies in Israel

We investigated the contribution of different screening criteria to the prenatal detection of Down syndrome (DS) as well as other chromosomal anomalies in the Jewish population in Israel during 1990 and 1992. There was a significant decrease (P<0·03) in the incidence of DS live-births during 1992 (40:78 442) compared with 1990 (69:73 751) which paralleled a marked increase in total prenatal testing and in DS cases detected prenatally. Private laboratories, which perform amniocenteses mostly for women with a low risk of DS and without genetic counselling, had a significantly lower detection rate (1:917) compared with that of the genetic institutes, which following genetic counselling test both women ≥ 37 years of age (1:91) and women younger than 37 years (1:113). The detection of chromosomal anomalies other than DS was less affected by the reason for amniocentesis. Amniocentesis indicated by maternal serum marker screening of women younger than 37 years identified a greater number of chromosomal anomalies other than DS than amniocentesis based on age (≥37 years) alone (111:9604 versus 94:9810; P<0·06). Prenatal detection of DS is most effective when the indication for amniocentesis follows genetic counselling. The increasing use of maternal serum marker screening leads to a significant improvement in the positive detection rate of chromosomal anomalies other than DS in young women.     

Critical Review of Norms and Standards for Biodegradable Agricultural Plastics Part Ι. Biodegradation in Soil

A critical review of norms and standards and corresponding tests to determine the biodegradability in soil for biodegradable plastics, possibly applicable also to biodegradable agricultural plastics, is presented. There are only a few norms available at the international level about biodegradable plastics in soil. The criteria, parameters and testing methodologies for the characterization, labelling and validation of the agricultural plastic waste streams with respect to possible biodegradation in soil according to existing international standards are analysed while the relevant controversies are identified. To derive the best suited for agricultural plastics specs and testing methods, the possible developments or adaptation of available specs, is investigated. Considering the existing types of biodegradable plastic products in agriculture and their effective life management at the agricultural field, only a few norms appear to provide suitable tests that could be adapted, following appropriate research work, for testing biodegradability in soil under real field conditions. It is shown that some major revisions are needed, with the support of systematic research work, before a new universal norm and standard testing methods become available for testing agricultural plastics for biodegradation under real, and highly variable, soil conditions. Based on the analysis of the different norms and their content it appears necessary to incorporate provisions for transferability of results to different soils and climates, validation of tests through a positive reference and also, set prerequisites for soil media. Long term biodegradation in soil prediction is another open issue.     

Multi-biomarker approach in wild European bullhead, Cottus sp., exposed to agricultural and urban environmental pressures: practical recommendations for experimental design

In freshwater ecosystems, a large number of chemical substances are able to disturb homeostasis of fish by modulating one or more physiological functions including the immune system. The aim of this study was to assess multi-biomarker responses including immunotoxicity induced by urban and agricultural pressure in European bullheads living in a small French river basin. For this purpose, a set of biochemical, immunological, physiological and histological parameters was measured in wild bullheads from five locations characterized by various environmental pressures. Moreover, to address effects of physiological status and contamination level variation on biomarker responses, fish were sampled during three periods (April, July and October). Results revealed a clear impact of environmental pressure on fish health and particularly on immunological status. An increase of EROD activity was recorded between upstream and downstream sites. Upstream sites were also characterized by neurotoxicological effects. Fish exhibited upstream/downstream variations of immunological status but strong differences were observed according to sampling season. Conversely, regarding biochemical and immunological effects, no significant response of physiological indexes was recorded related to environmental pressures. According to these results, the European bullhead appears as a valuable model fish species to assess adverse effects in wildlife due to urban and agricultural pressures.