WORLD PETROLEUM RESOURCE ESTIMATES AND PRODUCTION FORECASTS: IMPLICATIONS FOR GOVERNMENT POLICY

Resource estimates alone will not give advance warning of encroaching production difficulties. An analysis of the general stages in the evolution of petroleum production and discovery and of industry statistics provides an estimate of when the stage characterised by increasing production in the market economy countries outside the United States and Canada will end. The analysis indicates that the year of maximum production will be in the 1990s. Economic growth aggravates the difficulties accompanying the production decline by advancing the date of peak production and by increasing the adjustments that must be made as oil production declines. Des prévisions de ressources à elles seules ne constituent pas des signes précurseurs de difficultés croissantes de production. Une analyse des étapes générales marquant l'evolution de la découverte et de la production du pétrole ainsi que des statistiques industrielles nous permet de prévoir l'époque à laquelle prendra fin la phase de production accrue dans les pays à économie de marché en dehors des Etats-Unis et du Canada. Cette analyse révèle que l'année de production maximale se situera dans les années 90. La croissance économique accentue les difficultés qui accompagnent le déclin de la production de pétrole en avancant la date à laquelle cell-ci atteindra son plafond et en augmentant le nombre d'ajustements qui s'avèrent nécessaires au fur et à mesure qu'elle baisse. Las evaluaciones de recursos no dan por si solas un aviso anticipado de las dificultades de producción. Un análisis de las etapas principales en la evolución del descubrimiento y producción de petróleo y de las estadísticas industriales provee un estimado de cuando va a terminar la etapa caracterizada por un crecimiento de producción en los paises de economias de mercado otros que Estados Unidos y Canada. El análisis indica que el año de producción máxima se hallará en la década del 90. El crecimiento económico agrava las dificultades debidas a la declinación de la producción al adelantar la fecha de máxima producción (pico) y al aumentar los ajustes que deven hacerse cuando la producción de petróleos disminuye.     

Bereavement and mourning after a shipping disaster: The case for intervention

This paper describes the help given by the social services department of a shipping company to bereaved families following a shipping disaster. In the absence of clear, factual and prompt information from an authoritative source, there is a tendency for bereaved individuals to deny their loss and thereby delay the process of mourning and eventual recovery. Appropriate intervention and support can help to overcome this tendency as was seen in the Madasa case.     

Destruction of Forests and Wildlife in the Kashmir Wilderness

Much of the forest wealth on the plains and in the hilly areas of India has been foolishly destroyed, and the rich heritage of wildlife has been slaughtered mostly for only temporary gain. The wanton axing of the larger indigenous trees and the uprooting of other floristic elements in the hills and on the lower slopes of the mountains, gradually impoverishes them, and may be followed by erosion that ultimately leaves the slopes barren. These alarming threats to the chir (Pinus roxburghii) and fir (Abies pindrow) forests of Kashmir will have disastrous consequences. Once densely-forested, the mountain slopes in Kashmir have become largely naked through too-heavy tapping and cutting of the trees; with concomitant landslides, frequent floods, and loss of fertile topsoil. Unfortunately, the people living in the areas of the chir and fir trees, do not play a proper part in their protection, and the last two decades have witnessed, year by year, the rapid march of urbanization and manifold destructive activities which have taken a heavy toll on these precious species. Urgent conservation measures are essential to preserve these endangered trees in Kashmir.     

Evidence for biodegradation and volatilisation of dissolved petroleum hydrocarbons during in situ air sparging in large laboratory columns

Laboratory column experiments run for up to 13 days compared air sparging of groundwater contaminated by dissolved petroleum hydrocarbons in sterile and non-sterile aquifer sediments as well as uncontaminated sediments and groundwater. Loss of dissolved BTEX compounds in the contaminated columns was very rapid, occurring through volatilisation. The majority of the dissolved total organic carbon (TOC) persisted for much longer periods however. A direct comparison between losses from sterile and non-sterile columns suggested a negligible contribution of biodegradation to the removal of TOC. This was difficult to confirm through examination of O₂ utilisation because oxidation of a small amount of reduced sulphur in the aquifer materials was the dominant sink for O₂. Despite this, it was possible to conclude that less than 22% of the removal of TOC was through biodegradation during the first three days of air sparging.     

A New Modus Operandi for the Agricultural Economics Profession

Agricultural economics has, until the 1990s, enjoyeda reputation for relevance and usefulness to theagri-food industry and policy-makers. Thatreputation has been jeopardized by a growinginfatuation with models and quantification, and aconcomitant underemphasis placed on many complexproblems and issues of society. An illustrativeexample is explored, using agriculturalactivity-related damage to the natural resourcebase, environment and ecology. Agriculturaleconomists are urged to respond by broadening theirterms of reference and joining forces with otherdisciplines.     

Integration of Environmental Assessment into the Regional Development Planning Process of the Galilee

/ The Galilee region on the northern edge of Israel constitutes more than 15% of the state's territory, supplies more than half of its drinking water needs, and is an important recreational resource and destination for Israelis. One of the main objectives of the plan for the Galilee was to devise a regional physical and economic development strategy for the years 1992-2007 that would arrest the trend of emigration of its residents, attract newly arrived immigrants to the region, and at the same time protect natural resources and environmental quality. This paper is limited to discussion of the environmental aspects of the plan. It analyzes spatial concepts for distribution of projected population growth, evaluates environmental impacts of alternative plans, and proposes a decision-making framework and tools for minimizing natural resources loss from development at the local level. Assessment of potential environmental impacts generated quantitative data of natural resources areas. Application of the data in the plan evaluation stage showed that the alternative that concentrated most of the new development in central Galilee was the second-best choice environmentally, but was preferred as the best choice for overall qualities. The planning study offers an alternative environmental impact assessment (EIA) process to the one presently used in Israel by incorporating environmental considerations at the initial plan-making stage and not at the plan-approval stage. It demonstrated that in order to be effective, environmental assessment and land-use planning should be seen as one effort that is integrated from the start and in each stage of the plan-making process.KEY WORDS: Environmental assessment; Development planning; Galilee