Using Population Viability Criteria to Assess Strategies to Minimize Disease Threats for an Endangered Carnivore

Outbreaks of infectious disease represent serious threats to the viability of many vertebrate populations, but few studies have included quantitative evaluations of alternative approaches to the management of disease. The most prevalent management approach is monitoring for and rapid response to an epizootic. An alternative is vaccination of a subset of the free‐living population (i.e., a “vaccinated core”) such that some individuals are partially or fully immune in the event of an epizootic. We developed a simulation model describing epizootic dynamics, which we then embedded in a demographic simulation to assess these alternative approaches to managing rabies epizootics in the island fox (Urocyon littoralis), a species composed of only 6 small populations on the California Channel Islands. Although the monitor and respond approach was superior to the vaccinated‐core approach for some transmission models and parameter values, this type of reactive management did not protect the population from rabies under many disease‐transmission assumptions. In contrast, a logistically feasible program of prophylactic vaccination for part of the wild population yielded low extinction probabilities across all likely disease‐transmission scenarios, even with recurrent disease introductions. Our use of a single metric of successful management—probability of extreme endangerment (i.e., quasi extinction)—to compare very different management approaches allowed an objective assessment of alternative strategies for controlling the threats posed by infectious disease outbreaks. Utilización de Criterios de Viabilidad Poblacional para Evaluar Estrategias para Minimizar Amenazas de Enfermedades para un Carnívoro en Peligro     

Effects of Forest Fragmentation on Seed Dispersal and Seedling Establishment in Ornithochorous Trees

Abstract: Habitat fragmentation increases seed dispersal limitation across the landscape and may also affect subsequent demographic stages such as seedling establishment. Thus, the development of adequate plans for forest restoration requires an understanding of mechanisms by which fragmentation hampers seed delivery to deforested areas and knowledge of how fragmentation affects the relationship between seed‐deposition patterns and seedling establishment. We evaluated the dispersal and recruitment of two bird‐dispersed, fleshy‐fruited tree species (Crataegus monogyna and Ilex aquifolium) in fragmented secondary forests of northern Spain. Forest fragmentation reduced the probability of seed deposition for both trees because of decreased availability of woody perches and fruit‐rich neighborhoods for seed dispersers, rather than because of reductions in tree cover by itself. The effects of fragmentation went beyond effects on the dispersal stage in Crataegus because seedling establishment was proportional to the quantities of bird‐dispersed seeds arriving at microsites. In contrast, postdispersal mortality in Ilex was so high that it obscured the seed‐to‐seedling transition. These results suggest that the effects of fragmentation are not necessarily consistent across stages of recruitment across species. Habitat management seeking to overcome barriers to forest recovery must include the preservation, and even the planting, of fleshy‐fruited trees in the unforested matrix as a measure to encourage frugivorous birds to enter into open and degraded areas. An integrative management strategy should also explicitly consider seed‐survival expectancies at microhabitats to preserve plant‐population dynamics and community structure in fragmented landscapes.     

Effect of Information Availability on Assessment and Designation of Species at Risk

Abstract: Information required to evaluate the extent to which species are at risk of extinction is usually limited and characterized as highly uncertain. In this context, we define information availability as the presence or absence of information used to determine the value of an ecological variable. We examined which of three hypothetical approaches best matched how levels of risk are assigned to species: (1) precautionary approach in which analysts designate levels of risk regardless of the amount of information available, (2) worst‐case approach in which analysts assign the maximum level of risk possible from the criteria, and (3) insurance approach in which analysts assign poorly known species to a high‐risk category when little information is available. We used the quantitative assessment criteria of the Committee on the Status of Endangered Wildlife in Canada (COSEWIC) as a case study. We created a binary (0/1) matrix of all 2.4192 × 10⁷ logical combinations of available information for the 14 ecological variables included in the quantitative criteria. We processed each combination of information availability represented in the matrix with a computer algorithm designed to emulate COSEWIC decision‐making rules. Low information availability was associated with a relatively high frequency of not being able to assign a candidate taxon to a risk category, which does not follow the precautionary principle. Information availability and the level of risk assigned to species were directly related, which is associated with the worst‐case approach, and counter to the insurance approach. Our results suggest that information availability can have a major effect on the level of risk assigned to a species. We recommend a conscious determination of whether such effects are desired, and we recommend the development of methods to explicitly characterize and incorporate information availability and other sources of uncertainty in decision‐making processes.     

Determining Optimal Population Monitoring for Rare Butterflies

Abstract: Determining population viability of rare insects depends on precise, unbiased estimates of population size and other demographic parameters. We used data on the endangered St. Francis' satyr butterfly (Neonympha mitchellii francisci) to evaluate 2 approaches (mark–recapture and transect counts) for population analysis of rare butterflies. Mark–recapture analysis provided by far the greatest amount of demographic information, including estimates (and standard errors) of population size, detection, survival, and recruitment probabilities. Mark–recapture analysis can also be used to estimate dispersal and temporal variation in rates, although we did not do this here. Models of seasonal flight phenologies derived from transect counts (Insect Count Analyzer) provided an index of population size and estimates of survival and statistical uncertainty. Pollard–Yates population indices derived from transect counts did not provide estimates of demographic parameters. This index may be highly biased if detection and survival probabilities vary spatially and temporally. In terms of statistical performance, mark–recapture and Pollard–Yates indices were least variable. Mark–recapture estimates were less likely to fail than Insect Count Analyzer, but mark–recapture estimates became less precise as sampling intensity decreased. In general, count‐based approaches are less costly and less likely to cause harm to rare insects than mark–recapture. The optimal monitoring approach must reconcile these trade‐offs. Thus, mark–recapture should be favored when demographic estimates are needed, when financial resources enable frequent sampling, and when marking does not harm the insect populations. The optimal sampling strategy may use 2 sampling methods together in 1 overall sampling plan: limited mark–recapture sampling to estimate survival and detection probabilities and frequent but less expensive transect counts.     

Building a Regionally Connected Reserve Network in a Changing and Uncertain World

Abstract: Habitat connectivity is required at large spatial scales to facilitate movement of biota in response to climatic changes and to maintain viable populations of wide‐ranging species. Nevertheless, it may require decades to acquire habitat linkages at such scales, and areas that could provide linkages are often developed before they can be reserved. Reserve scheduling methods usually consider only current threats, but threats change over time as development spreads and reaches presently secure areas. We investigated the importance of considering future threats when implementing projects to maintain habitat connectivity at a regional scale. To do so, we compared forward‐looking scheduling strategies with strategies that consider only current threats. The strategies were applied to a Costa Rican case study, where many reserves face imminent isolation and other reserves will probably become isolated in the more distant future. We evaluated strategies in terms of two landscape‐scale connectivity metrics, a pure connectivity metric and a metric of connected habitat diversity. Those strategies that considered only current threats were unreliable because they often failed to complete planned habitat linkage projects. The most reliable and effective strategies considered the future spread of development and its impact on the likelihood of completing planned habitat linkage projects. Our analyses highlight the critical need to consider future threats when building connected reserve networks over time.     

Spotted Owls and Old Growth Logging in the Pacific Northwest

Abstract: Northern Spotted Owls, Strix occidentalis caurina, require large tracts of old-growth conifer forest to survive and reproduce. Much of this forest has been or is being cut by commercial logging operations, with uncertain consequences for the owls. In this paper I present simulation models of owl population change over the next 100 years, as summing a variety of scenarios for habitat destruction and fragmentation. My analysis differs from previous models by incorporating patchy territory distribution and random environmental fluctuations. Fragmented and patchy habitat distributions are common problems for endangered organisms, but they have received little attention from modelers. My results indicate that yearly fluctuations in breeding success have little impact on owl populations, but that spatial structure is quite important and should be considered in planning forest preservation. The simulations suggest that for all reasonable parameter values the proposed US. Forest Service logging plans will lead to the demise of the owls.     

Coral Reef Habitats as Surrogates of Species, Ecological Functions, and Ecosystem Services

Abstract: Habitat maps are often the core spatially consistent data set on which marine reserve networks are designed, but their efficacy as surrogates for species richness and applicability to other conservation measures is poorly understood. Combining an analysis of field survey data, literature review, and expert assessment by a multidisciplinary working group, we examined the degree to which Caribbean coastal habitats provide useful planning information on 4 conservation measures: species richness, the ecological functions of fish species, ecosystem processes, and ecosystem services. Approximately one‐quarter to one‐third of benthic invertebrate species and fish species (disaggregated by life phase; hereafter fish species) occurred in a single habitat, and Montastraea‐dominated forereefs consistently had the highest richness of all species, processes, and services. All 11 habitats were needed to represent all 277 fish species in the seascape, although reducing the conservation target to 95% of species approximately halved the number of habitats required to ensure representation. Species accumulation indices (SAIs) were used to compare the efficacy of surrogates and revealed that fish species were a more appropriate surrogate of benthic species (SAI = 71%) than benthic species were for fishes (SAI = 42%). Species of reef fishes were also distributed more widely across the seascape than invertebrates and therefore their use as a surrogate simultaneously included mangroves, sea grass, and coral reef habitats. Functional classes of fishes served as effective surrogates of fish and benthic species which, given their ease to survey, makes them a particularly useful measure for conservation planning. Ecosystem processes and services exhibited great redundancy among habitats and were ineffective as surrogates of species. Therefore, processes and services in this case were generally unsuitable for a complementarity‐based approach to reserve design. In contrast, the representation of species or functional classes ensured inclusion of all processes and services in the reserve network.     

Shift in Trophic Level of Mediterranean Mariculture Species

The mean trophic level of the farmed fish species in the Mediterranean has been increasing. We examined the farming‐up hypothesis (i.e., the increase in the production of high‐trophic‐level species) in the Mediterranean by determining the trophic level of the aquafeeds (i.e., what the fish are fed) of 5 species of farmed marine fishes: common dentex (Dentex dentex), common pandora (Pagellus erythrinus), European seabass (Dicentrarchus labrax), gilthead seabream (Sparus aurata), and red porgy (Pagrus sp.). The mean trophic level of aquafeed used in mariculture from 1950 to 2011 was higher (3.93) than the prey farmed fish consume in the wild (3.72) and increased at a faster rate (0.48/decade) compared with that based on their diets in the wild (0.43/decade). Future expected replacement of the fishmeal and oil in aquafeeds by plant materials may reverse the farming‐up trend, although there are a number of concerns regarding operational, nutritional, environmental, and economic issues. The farming‐up reversal can be achieved in an ecologically friendly manner by facilitating the mariculture of low‐trophic‐level fishes and by promoting high efficiency in the use of living marine resources in aquafeeds. Cambios en el Nivel Trófico de las Especies de Maricultura Mediterránea