Ability of Matrix Models to Explain the Past and Predict the Future of Plant Populations

Uncertainty associated with ecological forecasts has long been recognized, but forecast accuracy is rarely quantified. We evaluated how well data on 82 populations of 20 species of plants spanning 3 continents explained and predicted plant population dynamics. We parameterized stage‐based matrix models with demographic data from individually marked plants and determined how well these models forecast population sizes observed at least 5 years into the future. Simple demographic models forecasted population dynamics poorly; only 40% of observed population sizes fell within our forecasts’ 95% confidence limits. However, these models explained population dynamics during the years in which data were collected; observed changes in population size during the data‐collection period were strongly positively correlated with population growth rate. Thus, these models are at least a sound way to quantify population status. Poor forecasts were not associated with the number of individual plants or years of data. We tested whether vital rates were density dependent and found both positive and negative density dependence. However, density dependence was not associated with forecast error. Forecast error was significantly associated with environmental differences between the data collection and forecast periods. To forecast population fates, more detailed models, such as those that project how environments are likely to change and how these changes will affect population dynamics, may be needed. Such detailed models are not always feasible. Thus, it may be wiser to make risk‐averse decisions than to expect precise forecasts from models. Habilidad de los Modelos Matriciales para Explicar el Pasado y Predecir el Futuro de las Poblaciones de Plantas     

Economic and Ecological Outcomes of Flexible Biodiversity Offset Systems

The commonly expressed goal of biodiversity offsets is to achieve no net loss of specific biological features affected by development. However, strict equivalency requirements may complicate trading of offset credits, increase costs due to restricted offset placement options, and force offset activities to focus on features that may not represent regional conservation priorities. Using the oil sands industry of Alberta, Canada, as a case study, we evaluated the economic and ecological performance of alternative offset systems targeting either ecologically equivalent areas (vegetation types) or regional conservation priorities (caribou and the Dry Mixedwood natural subregion). Exchanging dissimilar biodiversity elements requires assessment via a generalized metric; we used an empirically derived index of biodiversity intactness to link offsets with losses incurred by development. We considered 2 offset activities: land protection, with costs estimated as the net present value of profits of petroleum and timber resources to be paid as compensation to resource tenure holders, and restoration of anthropogenic footprint, with costs estimated from existing restoration projects. We used the spatial optimization tool MARXAN to develop hypothetical offset networks that met either the equivalent‐vegetation or conservation‐priority targets. Networks that required offsetting equivalent vegetation cost 2–17 times more than priority‐focused networks. This finding calls into question the prudence of equivalency‐based systems, particularly in relatively undeveloped jurisdictions, where conservation focuses on limiting and directing future losses. Priority‐focused offsets may offer benefits to industry and environmental stakeholders by allowing for lower‐cost conservation of valued ecological features and may invite discussion on what land‐use trade‐offs are acceptable when trading biodiversity via offsets. Resultados Económicos y Ecológicos de Sistemas de Compensación de Biodiversidad Flexible Habib et al.     

Evaluating Wolf Translocation as a Nonlethal Method to Reduce Livestock Conflicts in the Northwestern United States

Abstract:  Successful nonlethal management of livestock predation is important for conserving rare or endangered carnivores. In the northwestern United States, wolves ( Canis lupus ) have been translocated away from livestock to mitigate conflicts while promoting wolf restoration. We assessed predation on livestock, pack establishment, survival, and homing behavior of 88 translocated wolves with radiotelemetry to determine the effectiveness of translocation in our region and consider how it may be improved. More than one-quarter of translocated wolves preyed on livestock after release. Most translocated wolves (67%) never established or joined a pack, although eight new packs resulted from translocations. Translocated wolves had lower annual survival (0.60) than other radio-collared wolves (0.73), with government removal the primary source of mortality. In northwestern Montana, where most wolves have settled in human-populated areas with livestock, survival of translocated wolves was lowest (0.41) and more wolves proportionally failed to establish packs (83%) after release. Annual survival of translocated wolves was highest in central Idaho (0.71) and more wolves proportionally established packs (44%) there than in the other two recovery areas. Translocated wolves showed a strong homing tendency; most of those that failed to home still showed directional movement toward capture sites. Wolves that successfully returned to capture sites were more likely to be adults, hard (immediately) rather than soft (temporarily held in enclosure) released, and translocated shorter distances than other wolves that did not return home. Success of translocations varied and was most affected by the area in which wolves were released. We suggest managers translocating wolves or other large carnivores consider soft releasing individuals (in family groups, if social) when feasible because this may decrease homing behavior and increase release-site fidelity.     

Research in Water Resources and Environmental Systems Modeling Some Historical Perspectives, Current Issues, and Future Directions

A recent workshop at Cornell University on water resources and environmental systems analysis provided an opportunity for about 70 attendees, mostly from North America, but some also from Asia, Europe, and South America, to discuss some of the important current issues and future research needs in this field. This paper summarizes the writers' perceptions of those informal discussions, especially pertaining to that part directed toward systems modeling. After over two decades of research and application, it is evident that there have been some beneficial impacts from various modelling applications. However, additional research needs are evident. These needs are identified and discussed.     

Golf Course Development in a Major Tourist Destination: Implications for Planning and Management

The planning and design of golf course developments is influenced by many factors. This paper focuses on the environmental ramifications of insufficient or lack of compliance with standard environmental and economic planning practices. Specifically, it looks at a tourist destination location that was under the influence of extensive land development and investment speculation. The Gold Coast in Australia was the focal point for large overseas investment due to changes in government legislation regarding foreign investment. Due to the economic climate in the second half of the 1980s many golf course resort developments were built, approved, or planned. Many of these circumvented normal business and environment planning processes. The result has been a dangerous concentration of golf facilities in environmentally sensitive areas and an oversupply of golf facilities. Both of these matters are discussed in terms of the general planning process and the potential economic and environmental impacts to the Gold Coast and similar destinations in other parts of the world.     

Contrasting Global Trends in Marine Fishery Status Obtained from Catches and from Stock Assessments

Abstract: There are differences in perception of the status of fisheries around the world that may partly stem from how data on trends in catches over time have been used. On the basis of catch trends, it has been suggested that about 70% of all stocks are overexploited due to unsustainable harvesting and 30% of all stocks have collapsed to <10% of unfished levels. Catch trends also suggest that over time an increasing number of stocks will be overexploited and collapsed. We evaluated how use of catch data affects assessment of fisheries stock status. We analyzed simulated random catch data with no trend. We examined well‐studied stocks classified as collapsed on the basis of catch data to determine whether these stocks actually were collapsed. We also used stock assessments to compare stock status derived from catch data with status derived from biomass data. Status of stocks derived from catch trends was almost identical to what one would expect if catches were randomly generated with no trend. Most classifications of collapse assigned on the basis of catch data were due to taxonomic reclassification, regulatory changes in fisheries, and market changes. In our comparison of biomass data with catch trends, catch trends overestimated the percentage of overexploited and collapsed stocks. Although our biomass data were primarily from industrial fisheries in developed countries, the status of these stocks estimated from catch data was similar to the status of stocks in the rest of the world estimated from catch data. We conclude that at present 28–33% of all stocks are overexploited and 7–13% of all stocks are collapsed. Additionally, the proportion of fished stocks that are overexploited or collapsed has been fairly stable in recent years.     

A Spatially Explicit Decision Support Model for Restoration of Forest Bird Habitat

Abstract:  The historical area of bottomland hardwood forest in the Mississippi Alluvial Valley has been reduced by >75%. Agricultural production was the primary motivator for deforestation; hence, clearing deliberately targeted higher and drier sites. Remaining forests are highly fragmented and hydrologically altered, with larger forest fragments subject to greater inundation, which has negatively affected many forest bird populations. We developed a spatially explicit decision support model, based on a Partners in Flight plan for forest bird conservation, that prioritizes forest restoration to reduce forest fragmentation and increase the area of forest core (interior forest >1 km from "hostile" edge). Our primary objective was to increase the number of forest patches that harbor >2000 ha of forest core, but we also sought to increase the number and area of forest cores >5000 ha. Concurrently, we targeted restoration within local (320 km²) landscapes to achieve ≥60% forest cover. Finally, we emphasized restoration of higher-elevation bottomland hardwood forests in areas where restoration would not increase forest fragmentation. Reforestation of 10% of restorable land in the Mississippi Alluvial Valley (approximately 880,000 ha) targeted at priorities established by this decision support model resulted in approximately 824,000 ha of new forest core. This is more than 32 times the amount of core forest added through reforestation of randomly located fields (approximately 25,000 ha). The total area of forest core (1.6 million ha) that resulted from targeted restoration exceeded habitat objectives identified in the Partners in Flight Bird Conservation Plan and approached the area of forest core present in the 1950s.     

Spatial Components of Bird Diversity in the Andes of Colombia: Implications for Designing a Regional Reserve System

Abstract:  Beta diversity, or the turnover in species composition among sampling sites in a region, is an important criterion for obtaining adequate representation of regional biodiversity in systems of protected areas. Recently, the additive model for partitioning regional (gamma) diversity (in opposition to the multiplicative model) has been proposed because it allows a direct measure of the contribution of beta diversity to gamma diversity. We determined avian beta diversity along latitudinal (among neighboring river drainages) and elevational axes in a 1347-km² region on the western slope of the Central Cordillera of the Colombian Andes, where a regional system of protected areas is being designed. We then compared avian beta diversity between sites based on rapid versus long-term (>1 year) inventories and between fragmented sites versus continuous forest. Overall, beta diversity represented 63.1% of gamma diversity among 16 sites. Elevational differences in species composition accounted for 43.3% of regional diversity, whereas differences among drainages accounted for 19.8%. A complementary cluster analysis showed that sites grouped by elevational zones. Rapid inventories overestimated beta diversity because of sampling effects, but the effect was biologically small. Estimators of species richness derived from species accumulation curves provided a useful alternative to compensate for undersampling in short-term surveys. Forest fragmentation increased beta diversity because of differential local extinction of populations. Nevertheless, in our region, forest fragments contributed to gamma diversity because they contained complementary sets of species. More importantly, they contained populations of special-interest species. Although the region is relatively small, our analyses indicate that spatial differentiation of the biota is an important factor for deciding number and location of protected areas in the Andean region.