Modeling Prescribed Surface-Fire Regimes for Pinus strobus Conservation

Abstract:  We developed a simple model of   Pinus strobus L. stand dynamics to compare the impacts of different temporal arrangements of surface fires designed to reflect the application of fire as both an essential ecosystem process (natural fire) and as an efficient means of producing specific habitat features or other values (optimal fire). We used a stochastic simulation model of fire processes to estimate the mean fire-return interval that would maximize stand structural diversity. We investigated trade-offs between structural diversity and temporal population stability associated with changes in the fire interval and used a deterministic version of the model to explore the effects of scheduling fires at fixed intervals. In stochastic simulations, maximum structural diversity occurred at intermediate levels of disturbance (40-year mean fire interval). When fires were scheduled at fixed intervals, a longer, 100-year return interval maximized diversity. Mean fire-return interval was a mitigating factor in the diversity-stability relationship, which changed from positive to negative as the fire interval was reduced progressively from 250 to 5 years. As an alternative to scheduling fires at specified mean intervals, we developed a goal-programming model (a form of linear programming model) and used it to identify an optimal fire schedule for achieving habitat and visual-quality objectives. In comparison with the 40-year stochastic mean fire interval, which maximized structural diversity, the optimal schedule produced comparable levels of both diversity and fire frequency. Our results show how simulation and goal-programming models can be used to evaluate prescribed fire-scheduling alternatives and to explore the comparative advantages of natural and optimal fire-management approaches.     

Relationship between Population Size and Fitness

Abstract:  Long-term effective population size, which determines rates of inbreeding, is correlated with population fitness. Fitness, in turn, influences population persistence. I synthesized data from the literature concerning the effects of population size on population fitness in natural populations of plants to determine how large populations must be to maintain levels of fitness that will provide adequate protection against environmental perturbations that can cause extinction. Integral to this comment on what has been done and what needs to be done, sThe evidence suggests that there is a linear relationship between log population size and population fitness over the range of population sizes examined. More importantly, populations will have to be maintained at sizes of >2000 individuals to maintain population fitness at levels compatible with the conservation goal of long-term persistence. This approach to estimating minimum viable population size provides estimates that are in general agreement with those from numerous other studies and strengthens the argument that conservation efforts should ultimately aim at maintaining populations of several thousand individuals to ensure long-term persistence.     

Using Economic and Regulatory Incentives to Restore Endangered Species: Lessons Learned from Three New Programs

Abstract:  We studied three new incentive-based programs for restoring endangered species on private lands in the United States: safe harbor, Environmental Defense's Landowner Conservation Assistance Program, and conservation banking. For each program, we gathered data on the number of participating landowners, the number of species targeted for assistance, and the cumulative acreage of enrolled land. Measured in this way, both safe harbor and the Landowner Conservation Assistance Program have been remarkably successful. Landowners are drawn to three aspects of these programs: (1) the removal of regulatory burdens associated with attracting endangered species to their property; (2) technical guidance on how to restore habitats for endangered species; and (3) cost-share assistance for habitat restoration. Technical guidance appears to be more important than either regulatory relief or financial assistance in securing the cooperation of some landowners. Assessing the success or failure of conservation banking proved more difficult, given the relatively small number of banks created to date and the lack of any centralized database on them. However, nearly half of the 47 endangered-species conservation banks we surveyed have sold credits, indicating some success in either acquiring or restoring essential habitats.     

Biotic Impoverishment and Homogenization in Unfragmented Forest Understory Communities

Abstract:  Ecological change is often hard to document because of a lack of reliable baseline data. Several recent then-versus-now surveys of temperate forest and grassland communities demonstrate losses of local plant species, but most are based on data from a single site. We resurveyed understory communities in 62 upland forest stands in northern Wisconsin (U.S.A.) for which quantitative baseline data exist from 50 years ago. These stands are within a largely unfragmented region but vary in species composition and successional stage. We collected data on changes in (1) total and native species richness, (2) the ratio of exotic to native species, (3) the relative abundance of habitat generalists, and (4) community similarity among sites. We also compared how these rates of change varied over time. Over the past 50 years, native species density declined an average of 18.5% at the 20-m² scale, whereas the ratio of exotic species to native species increased at 80% of all sites. Habitat generalists increased, and habitat specialists declined, accounting in part for an 8.7% rise in average similarity in species composition among sites. Most of these changes cannot be related to succession, habitat loss, or invasion by exotic species. Areas without deer hunting showed the greatest declines in native species density, with parks and research natural areas faring no better than unprotected stands. Animal-pollinated and animal-dispersed species also declined, particularly at unhunted sites. These results demonstrate the power of quantitative multistand data for assessing ecological change and identify overabundant deer as a key driver of community change. Because maintaining forest habitats alone fails to preserve plant diversity at local scales, local biotic simplification seems likely to continue in the region unless active efforts are taken to protect diversity.     

Written Accounts of an Amazonian Landscape Over the Last 450 Years

Abstract:  Books, articles, government documents, and other written accounts of tropical biology and conservation reach a tiny fraction of their potential audience. Some texts are inaccessible because of the language in which they are written. Others are only available to subscribers of developed-world journals, or distributed narrowly within tropical countries. To examine this dysfunction in the tropical literature—and what it means for conservation—we tried to compile everything ever written on the biology and conservation of the department of Madre de Dios, Peru, in southwestern Amazonia. Our search of libraries, databases, and existing bibliographies uncovered 2,202 texts totaling roughly 80,000 pages. Texts date from 1553 to 2004, but 93% were written after 1970. Since that year the publication rate has increased steadily from fewer than 10 texts/year to nearly 3 texts/week in 2004. Roughly half of the Madre de Dios bibliography is in Spanish-language texts written by Peruvian authors and mostly inaccessible outside Peru. Most of the remaining material is English-language texts written by foreign authors and largely inaccessible in Peru. Foreign authors tended to write about ecological studies with limited relevance to on-the-ground conservation challenges, whereas Peruvian authors were more likely to make specific management recommendations. The establishment of a Web-based digital library for Neotropical nature would help make the tropical literature a more efficient resource for science and conservation. Additional recommendations include investing in syntheses, translations, popular summaries, and peer-reviewed journals in tropical countries, providing incentives for management-relevant research in tropical protected areas, and reinforcing training of scientific reading and writing in tropical universities.     

Deforestation and Plant Diversity of Madagascar's Littoral Forests

Abstract:  Few studies have attempted to quantify the reduction or document the floristic composition of forests in Madagascar. Thus, we focused specifically on deforestation and plant diversity in Madagascar's eastern littoral community. We used a data set of approximately 13,500 specimen records compiled from both historical and contemporary collections resulting from recent intensive inventory efforts to enumerate total plant species richness and to analyze the degree of endemism within littoral forests. Change in littoral forest cover from original to current extent was estimated using geographical information systems tools, remote sensing data (satellite imagery and low-elevation digital photography), and environmental data layers. Of the original littoral forest only 10.3% remains in the form of small forest parcels, and only 1.5% of these remaining fragments are included within the existing protected-areas network. Additionally, approximately 13% of Madagascar's total native flora has been recorded from these forests that originally occupied <1% of its total land surface, and over 25% of the 1535 plant species known from littoral forests are endemic to this community. Given the ongoing pressure from human settlement along Madagascar's eastern coast, protection of the remaining forest fragments is critical for their survival. Fifteen of the largest intact littoral forest fragments we identified, collectively representing 41.5% of remaining littoral forest, are among priority sites recommended to the government of Madagascar for plant conservation and incorporation into the protected-areas network.     

Assessing the Risk of Introducing Exotic Species via the Live Marine Species Trade

Abstract:  Although the shipping industry has received considerable attention as a dispersal mechanism for aquatic nuisance species, many invasions have been linked to other mechanisms of transfer. The threat posed to coastal ecosystems by these alternative mechanisms, however, remains largely unquantified. We assessed the potential risks of introducing marine and estuarine species associated with seven mechanisms of transfer: seafood companies, aquaculture operations, bait shops, stores that sell marine ornamental species, research and educational organizations, public aquariums, and coastal restoration projects. For each, we compiled a comprehensive database of organizations in coastal Massachusetts. We then designed and administered a survey to a subset of organizations that inquired about (1) their proximity to saltwater and methods of handling live imports; (2) the type and quantity of marine species being imported; and (3) the organization's familiarity with marine invasions. Respondents in five of the seven categories acknowledged importing nonlocal live marine species to the area. Seafood companies handled the majority of individuals but relatively few taxa. This mechanism of transfer also had the most complex trade patterns and the greatest number of operations located near saltwater. In contrast, the other transfer mechanisms each had simpler trade pathways and fewer operations but varied in the quantity and taxonomic diversity of their imports. Significantly, no single mechanism of transfer stood out as presenting a primary risk. Rather, each had characteristics or used handling practices at different points in the importation process that could facilitate introductions. To prevent future marine invasions, better reporting requirements for live species imports are needed, and best-management practices and outreach strategies specific to the transfer mechanism should be developed and implemented.     

Risk-Based Viable Population Monitoring

Abstract:  We describe risk-based viable population monitoring, in which the monitoring indicator is a yearly prediction of the probability that, within a given timeframe, the population abundance will decline below a prespecified level. Common abundance-based monitoring strategies usually have low power to detect declines in threatened and endangered species and are largely reactive to declines. Comparisons of the population's estimated risk of decline over time will help determine status in a more defensible manner than current monitoring methods. Monitoring risk is a more proactive approach; critical changes in the population's status are more likely to be demonstrated before a devastating decline than with abundance-based monitoring methods. In this framework, recovery is defined not as a single evaluation of long-term viability but as maintaining low risk of decline for the next several generations. Effects of errors in risk prediction techniques are mitigated through shorter prediction intervals, setting threshold abundances near current abundance, and explicitly incorporating uncertainty in risk estimates. Viable population monitoring also intrinsically adjusts monitoring effort relative to the population's true status and exhibits considerable robustness to model misspecification. We present simulations showing that risk predictions made with a simple exponential growth model can be effective monitoring indicators for population dynamics ranging from random walk to density dependence with stable, decreasing, or increasing equilibrium. In analyses of time-series data for five species, risk-based monitoring warned of future declines and demonstrated secure status more effectively than statistical tests for trend.     

Effects of Customary Marine Closures on Fish Behavior,Spear‐Fishing Success,and Underwater Visual Surveys

Abstract: Customary management systems (i.e., management systems that limit the use of marine resources), such as rotational fisheries closures, can limit harvest of resources. Nevertheless, the explicit goals of customary management are often to influence fish behavior (in particular flight distance, i.e., distance at which an organism begins to flee an approaching threat), rather than fish abundance. We explored whether the flight distance of reef fishes targeted by local artisanal fishers differed between a customary closure and fished reefs. We also examined whether flight distance of these species affected fishing success and accuracy of underwater visual census (UVC) between customary closed areas and areas open to fishing. Several species demonstrated significant differences in flight distance between areas, indicating that fishing activity may increase flight distance. These relatively long flight distances mean that in fished areas most target species may stay out of the range of spear fishers. In addition, mean flight distances for all species both inside and outside the customary‐closure area were substantially smaller than the observation distance of an observer conducting a belt‐transect UVC (mean [SE]= 8.8 m [0.48]). For targeted species that showed little ability to evade spear fishers, customary closures may be a vital management technique. Our results show that customary closures can have a substantial, positive effect on resource availability and that conventional UVC techniques may be insensitive to changes in flight behavior of fishes associated with fishing. We argue that short, periodic openings of customary closures may allow the health of the fish community to be maintained and local fishers to effectively harvest fishes.