Fragmentation effects on an endangered species across a gradient from the interior to edge of its range

Understanding how habitat fragmentation affects individual species is complicated by challenges associated with quantifying species-specific habitat and spatial variability in fragmentation effects within a species’ range. We aggregated a 29-year breeding survey data set for the endangered marbled murrelet (Brachyramphus marmoratus) from >42,000 forest sites throughout the Pacific Northwest (Oregon, Washington, and northern California) of the United States. We built a species distribution model (SDM) in which occupied sites were linked with Landsat imagery to quantify murrelet-specific habitat and then used occupancy models to test the hypotheses that fragmentation negatively affects murrelet breeding distribution and that these effects are amplified with distance from the marine foraging habitat toward the edge of the species’ nesting range. Murrelet habitat declined in the Pacific Northwest by 20% since 1988, whereas the proportion of habitat comprising edges increased by 17%, indicating increased fragmentation. Furthermore, fragmentation of murrelet habitat at landscape scales (within 2 km of survey stations) negatively affected occupancy of potential breeding sites, and these effects were amplified near the range edge. On the coast, the odds of occupancy decreased by 37% (95% confidence interval [CI] –54 to 12) for each 10% increase in edge habitat (i.e., fragmentation), but at the range edge (88 km inland) these odds decreased by 99% (95% CI 98 to 99). Conversely, odds of murrelet occupancy increased by 31% (95% CI 14 to 52) for each 10% increase in local edge habitat (within 100 m of survey stations). Avoidance of fragmentation at broad scales but use of locally fragmented habitat with reduced quality may help explain the lack of murrelet population recovery. Further, our results emphasize that fragmentation effects can be nuanced, scale dependent, and geographically variable. Awareness of these nuances is critical for developing landscape-level conservation strategies for species experiencing broad-scale habitat loss and fragmentation.     

Managing error on the open road: The contribution of human error models and methods

Despite the provision of various theoretical models and error management methods, error and error-causing conditions remain omnipresent within road transport. This article presents a review of human error models and selected error management approaches, and their applications in a road transport context. The review indicates that such applications, although extant, are limited, and that, compared to other domains, the impact of the models and methods discussed has been only minimal. Reasons for this are discussed, and potential ways in which the models and methods can contribute to road safety are proposed. In conclusion, it is argued that human error models and management methods, although already well integrated within most safety critical domains, still have much to offer to the enhancement of road safety. Further, it is argued that advances in the area, in terms of theoretical and methodological development and validation, are still to be made, and that applications of the error management methods discussed are required to enable such advances.     

Predictors of coping behavior after a layoff

In a longitudinal study of laid-off industrial workers, we examined the effects of individual differences and situational characteristics on individuals' use of six job loss coping strategies. In each case the predictors explained a significant portion of the variance (30–47 percent) although different predictors were significantly associated with each of the six coping strategies. The results also suggest that the use of problem-focused and symptom-focused coping strategies are complementary rather than mutually exclusive. The study's implications and directions for future research are discussed as well. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Streamflow Responses to Climate Change: Analysis of Hydrologic Indicators in a New York City Water Supply Watershed

Recent works have indicated that climate change in the northeastern United States is already being observed in the form of shorter winters, higher annual average air temperature, and more frequent extreme heat and precipitation events. These changes could have profound effects on aquatic ecosystems, and the implications of such changes are less understood. The objective of this study was to examine how future changes in precipitation and temperature translate into changes in streamflow using a physically based semidistributed model, and subsequently how changes in streamflow could potentially impact stream ecology. Streamflow parameters were examined in a New York City water supply watershed for changes from model‐simulated baseline conditions to future climate scenarios (2081‐2100) for ecologically relevant factors of streamflow using the Indicators of Hydrologic Alterations tool. Results indicate that earlier snowmelt and reduced snowpack advance the timing and increase the magnitude of discharge in the winter and early spring (November‐March) and greatly decrease monthly streamflow later in the spring in April. Both the rise and fall rates of the hydrograph will increase resulting in increased flashiness and flow reversals primarily due to increased pulses during winter seasons. These shifts in timing of peak flows, changes in seasonal flow regimes, and changes in the magnitudes of low flow can all influence aquatic organisms and have the potential to impact stream ecology.     

Material Flow Analysis: a tool to support environmental policy decision making. Case-studies on the city of Vienna and the Swiss lowlands

This paper discusses the use of Material Flow Analysis (MFA) as a tool to support policy decision making in the field of resource and environmental management. In terms of policy, MFA can be used for early recognition, priority setting, to analyse and improve the effectiveness of measures and to design efficient material management strategies in view of sustainability. MFA has a high potential to be implemented as a guiding tool at the regional level, for example as part of a regional environmental management and audit system or as a part of the Local Agenda 21 process. Material management based on MFA is complementary to traditional environmental and resource management strategies, which have tended to focus heavily on specific environmental compartments, and measure the concentration of substances in various media. MFA, in contrast, provides an overview of the total system by linking the anthroposphere (that part of the biosphere in which humans' activities take place) with the environment. This system approach shifts the focus away from the back-end so-called 'filter strategies' to more pro-active front-end measures. MFA examines short- and long-term loadings rather than concentrations and highlights current and potential material accumulations, called material stocks. These stocks represent either potential environmental problems (e.g. large stocks of hazardous materials) or a potential source of future resources (e.g. urban mining). In this way, MFA can assist precautionary policy making by highlighting future environmental or resource issue problems without relying on signals of environmental stress. The objective of materials management is: firstly, to analyse material flows and stocks; secondly, to evaluate these results; and thirdly, to control material flows in view of certain goals such as sustainable development. MFA is an excellent tool for the first objective and is well suited to generate a base for the other two objectives. MFA results can be compared against environmental standards or can be interpreted using assessment or indicator methodologies (such as environmental impact assessment or ecological footprints). Selected results from two studies, carried out for the city of Vienna (substance management) and the Swiss lowlands (timber management), illustrate the use of MFA as a tool for early recognition (resource depletion and environmental quality), for priority setting and for effective policy making.     

Defensive chemistry of lycid beetles and of mimetic cerambycid beetles that feed on them

Summary.  Beetles of the family Lycidae have long been known to be chemically protected. We present evidence that North American species of the lycid genera Calopteron and Lycus are rejected by thrushes, wolf spiders, and orb-weaving spiders, and that they contain a systemic compound that could account, at least in part, for this unacceptability. This compound, a novel acetylenic acid that we named lycidic acid, proved actively deterrent in feeding tests with wolf spiders and coccinellid beetles. Species of Lycuscommonly figure as models of mimetic associations. Among their mimics are species of the cerambycid beetle genus Elytroleptus, remarkable because they prey upon the model lycids. We postulated that by doing so Elytroleptus might incorporate the lycidic acid from their prey for their own defense. However, judging from analytical data, the beetles practice no such sequestration, explaining why they remain relatively palatable (in tests with wolf spiders) even after having fed on lycids. Chemical analyses also showed the lycids to contain pyrazines, such as were already known from other Lycidae, potent odorants that could serve in an aposematic capacity to forestall predatory attacks. David Utterback: Deceased     

Impact of nutrient removal through harvesting on the sustainability of the boreal forest

The cycling of base cations (K, Ca, Mg, and Na) was investigated in a boreal balsam fir forest (the Lake Laflamme Watershed) between 1999 and 2005. Base cation budgets were calculated for the soil rooting zone that included atmospheric deposition and soil leaching losses, two scenarios of tree uptake (whole-tree and stem-only harvesting), and three scenarios of mineral weathering, leading to six different scenarios. In every scenario there was a net accumulation of Mg within the soil exchangeable reservoir, while Ca accumulated in four scenarios. Potassium was lost in five of the six scenarios. Contrary to Ca and Mg, immobilization of K within tree biomass (69 mol x ha(-1) x yr(-1)) was the main pathway of K losses from the soil exchangeable reservoir, being five times higher than losses via soil leaching (14 mol x ha(-1) x yr(-1)). The amounts of K contained within the aboveground biomass and the exchangeable soil reservoir were 3.3 kmol/ha and 4.2 kmol/ha, respectively. Whole-tree harvesting may thus remove 44% of the K that is readily available for cycling in the short term, making this forest sensitive to commercial forestry operations. Similar values of annual K uptake as well as a similar distribution of K between tree biomass and soil exchangeable reservoirs at 14 other coniferous sites, distributed throughout the boreal forest of Quebec, suggest that the Lake Laflamme Watershed results can be extrapolated to a much larger area. Stem-only harvesting, which would reduce K exports due to biomass removal by 60%, should be used for these types of forest.     

Using demography and movement behavior to predict range expansion of the southern sea otter

In addition to forecasting population growth, basic demographic data combined with movement data provide a means for predicting rates of range expansion. Quantitative models of range expansion have rarely been applied to large vertebrates, although such tools could be useful for restoration and management of many threatened but recovering populations. Using the southern sea otter (Enhydra lutris nereis) as a case study, we utilized integro-difference equations in combination with a stage-structured projection matrix that incorporated spatial variation in dispersal and demography to make forecasts of population recovery and range recolonization. In addition to these basic predictions, we emphasize how to make these modeling predictions useful in a management context through the inclusion of parameter uncertainty and sensitivity analysis. Our models resulted in hind-cast (1989-2003) predictions of net population growth and range expansion that closely matched observed patterns. We next made projections of future range expansion and population growth, incorporating uncertainty in all model parameters, and explored the sensitivity of model predictions to variation in spatially explicit survival and dispersal rates. The predicted rate of southward range expansion (median = 5.2 km/yr) was sensitive to both dispersal and survival rates; elasticity analysis indicated that changes in adult survival would have the greatest potential effect on the rate of range expansion, while perturbation analysis showed that variation in subadult dispersal contributed most to variance in model predictions. Variation in survival and dispersal of females at the south end of the range contributed most of the variance in predicted southward range expansion. Our approach provides guidance for the acquisition of further data and a means of forecasting the consequence of specific management actions. Similar methods could aid in the management of other recovering populations.     

Topographic heterogeneity influences fish use of an experimentally restored tidal marsh.

Ecological theory predicts that incorporating habitat heterogeneity into restoration sites should enhance diversity and key functions, yet research is limited on how topographic heterogeneity affects higher trophic levels. Our large (8-ha) southern California restoration experiment tested effects of tidal creek networks and pools on trophic structure of salt marsh habitat and high-tide use by two regionally dominant fish species, California killifish (Fundulus parvipinnis) and longjaw mudsucker (Gillichthys mirabilis). We expected tidal creeks to function as "conduits" that would enhance connectivity between subtidal and intertidal habitat and pools to serve as microhabitat "oases" for fishes. Pools did provide abundant invertebrate prey and were a preferred microhabitat for F. parvipinnis, even when the entire marsh was inundated (catch rates were 61% higher in pools). However, G. mirabilis showed no preference for pools. At a larger scale, effects of tidal creek networks were also mixed. Areas containing creeks had 12% higher catch rates of G. mirabilis, but lower catch rates and feeding rates of F. parvipinnis. Collectively, the results indicate that restoring multiple forms of heterogeneity is required to provide opportunities for multiple target consumers.