Validation of a multispecies forest dynamics model using 50-year growth from Eucalyptus forests in eastern Australia

One of the key problems confronting ecological forecasting is the validation of computer models. Here we report successful validation of a forest dynamics model Ecosystem Dynamics Simulator (EDS), adapted from the JABOWA-II forest succession model. This model and many variants derived from it have successfully simulated growth dynamics of uneven-aged mixed forests under changing environment with a moderate amount of input data. But rarely are adequate time-series data available for quantitative model validation. This study tested the performance of EDS in projecting the tree density, tree diameter at breast height (dbh), tree height, basal area and aboveground biomass of uneven-aged, mixed species sclerophyll forests in St. Mary state forests of eastern Australia. The test data were collected between 1951 and 2005. Every tree was uniquely numbered, tagged and measured in consecutive re-measurements. Projected growth attributes were compared with those observed in an independent validation dataset. The model produced satisfactory projections of tree density (91.7%), dbh (92.3%), total tree height (82.8%), basal area (89.3%) and aboveground biomass (87.6%) compared to the observed attributes. These results suggest that the EDS model can provide reasonable capability in projecting growth dynamics of uneven-aged, mixed species sclerophyll forests.     

A strong test of a maximum entropy model of trait-based community assembly

We evaluate the predictive power and generality of Shipley's maximum entropy (maxent) model of community assembly in the context of 96 quadrats over a 120-km2 area having a large (79) species pool and strong gradients. Quadrats were sampled in the herbaceous understory of ponderosa pine forests in the Coconino National Forest, Arizona, U.S.A. The maxent model accurately predicted species relative abundances when observed community-weighted mean trait values were used as model constraints. Although only 53% of the variation in observed relative abundances was associated with a combination of 12 environmental variables, the maxent model based only on the environmental variables provided highly significant predictive ability, accounting for 72% of the variation that was possible given these environmental variables. This predictive ability largely surpassed that of nonmetric multidimensional scaling (NMDS) or detrended correspondence analysis (DCA) ordinations. Using cross-validation with 1000 independent runs, the median correlation between observed and predicted relative abundances was 0.560 (the 2.5% and 97.5% quantiles were 0.045 and 0.825). The qualitative predictions of the model were also noteworthy: dominant species were correctly identified in 53% of the quadrats, 83% of rare species were correctly predicted to have a relative abundance of < 0.05, and the median predicted relative abundance of species actually absent from a quadrat was 5 x 10(-5).     

Archival tagging of subadult and adult common thresher sharks (Alopias vulpinus) off the coast of southern California

The common thresher shark (Alopias vulpinus) is a secondary target species of the California drift gillnet fishery (CA-DGN) and supports a growing recreational fishery in California waters. This study used archival tags to examine the movement patterns and habitat preferences of common threshers of the size range captured in the CA-DGN (>120 cm fork length). Depth and temperature-logging archival tags were deployed on 57 subadult and adult common threshers in the Southern California Bight. Tags from five individuals (8.8%) were recovered, and 154 days of data were successfully obtained from four of these. By night, shark movements were primarily limited to waters above the thermocline, which ranged in depth from 15 to 20 m. Sharks were significantly deeper by day, and daytime vertical distribution consisted of two distinct modes: a ‘shallow mode’ (wherein sharks occupied only the upper 20 m of the water column) and a ‘deep mode’ (characterized by frequent vertical excursions below the thermocline). This modal switch is interpreted as relating to regional differences in abundance of surface-oriented prey and prey in deeper water. Maximum dive depth was 320 m, greatest dive duration was 712 min, minimum temperature experienced during a dive was 9.1°C, and dive descent rate was significantly greater than ascent rate. Sharks inhabited waters corresponding to a sea surface temperature range of 16 to 21°C. The nocturnal depth distribution of common threshers has implications for management of drift gillnet deployment depths in the CA-DGN.     

Rhythmic male reproductive behavior controls timing of courtship and mating in Laupala cerasina

In many organisms, mating behavior occurs at a particular time of day, which may be important for avoiding mate competition or interspecific mating. Crickets of the Hawaiian genus Laupala exhibit an unusually protracted courtship in which males produce a series of nuptial gifts prior to the species-typical time of mating. Mating time is one of several rhythmic behaviors that have diverged among closely related Laupala species, which exhibit an extremely high speciation rate. Mating rhythm may reflect direct selection on male and/or female sexual receptivity or the pleiotropic consequence of selection on other rhythmic behaviors. To examine the role of sexual rhythmicity in Laupala cerasina, we characterized the time boundaries or “circadian gate” of courtship and mating, as well as female phonotactic response to male song. We also examined which sex is responsible for mating rhythmicity by phase-shifting males relative to the female photophase. Our results demonstrate that mating behavior is gated by the end of the light phase. Time limits to female mating receptivity were not observed and thus male rhythm alone appears to be responsible for the timing of mating. Furthermore, when courtship is initiated later in the day, males produce fewer nuptial gifts and increase nuptial gift production rate while delaying mating, suggesting that the number of gifts a female receives is important to male reproductive success.     

Social attributes and associated performance measures in marmots: bigger male bullies and weakly affiliating females have higher annual reproductive success

Studying the structure of social interactions is fundamental in behavioral ecology as social behavior often influences fitness and thus natural selection. However, social structure is often complex, and determining the most appropriate measures of variation in social behavior among individuals can be difficult. Social network analysis generates numerous, but often correlated, measures of individual connectedness derived from a network of interactions. We used measures of individual connectedness in networks of affiliative and agonistic interactions in yellow-bellied marmots, Marmota flaviventris, to first determine how variance was structured among network measures. Principal component analysis reduced our set of network measures to four “social attributes” (unweighted connectedness, affiliation strength, victimization, and bullying), which revealed differences between patterns of affiliative and agonistic interactions. We then used these extracted social attributes to examine the relationship between an individual’s social attributes and several performance measures: annual reproductive success, parasite infection, and basal stress. In male marmots, bullying was positively associated with annual reproductive success, while in females, affiliation strength was negatively associated with annual reproductive success. No other social attributes were significantly associated with any performance measures. Our study highlights the utility of considering multiple dimensions when measuring the structure and functional consequences of social behavior.     

Leading from the front? Social networks in navigating groups

In many group-living animals, leadership by only a fraction of the group members can be important for group navigation. It has been shown that subgroups of informed individuals can steer the remainder of the group without direct communication, resolving conflicts of interest through individual-to-individual interactions. We present a model for the navigation of collectively moving groups that includes preferential interactions between individuals as a way of imposing social network structures, known to be present in many species. We show that effective leadership can occur when leaders do not occupy frontal spatial positions and when navigation tendency is appropriately balanced with social position. Our model also shows that small minorities can dominate movement decisions if they have navigational knowledge combined with influential social network positions. Our findings highlight the mechanistic importance of social networks for the movement decisions of animal groups. We discuss the implications of our research for interpreting empirical observations.     

Biophysical feedback mediates effects of invasive grasses on coastal dune shape

Vegetation at the aquatic-terrestrial interface can alter landscape features through its growth and interactions with sediment and fluids. Even similar species may impart different effects due to variation in their interactions and feedbacks with the environment. Consequently, replacement of one engineering species by another can cause significant change in the physical environment. Here we investigate the species-specific ecological mechanisms influencing the geomorphology of U.S. Pacific Northwest coastal dunes. Over the last century, this system changed from open, shifting sand dunes with sparse vegetation (including native beach grass, Elymus mollis), to densely vegetated continuous foredune ridges resulting from the introduction and subsequent invasions of two nonnative grass species (Ammophila arenaria and Ammophila breviligulata), each of which is associated with different dune shapes and sediment supply rates along the coast. Here we propose a biophysical feedback responsible for differences in dune shape, and we investigate two, non-mutually exclusive ecological mechanisms for these differences: (1) species differ in their ability to capture sand and (2) species differ in their growth habit in response to sand deposition. To investigate sand capture, we used a moveable bed wind tunnel experiment and found that increasing tiller density increased sand capture efficiency and that, under different experimental densities, the native grass had higher sand capture efficiency compared to the Ammophila congeners. However, the greater densities of nonnative grasses under field conditions suggest that they have greater potential to capture more sand overall. We used a mesocosm experiment to look at plant growth responses to sand deposition and found that, in response to increasing sand supply rates, A. arenaria produced higher-density vertical tillers (characteristic of higher sand capture efficiency), while A. breviligulata and E. mollis responded with lower-density lateral tiller growth (characteristic of lower sand capture efficiency). Combined, these experiments provide evidence for a species-specific effect on coastal dune shape. Understanding how dominant ecosystem engineers, especially nonnative ones, differ in their interactions with abiotic factors is necessary to better parameterize coastal vulnerability models and inform management practices related to both coastal protection ecosystem services and ecosystem restoration.     

Competitive exclusion within the predator community influences the distribution of a threatened prey species

While much effort has been made to quantify how landscape composition influences the distribution of species, the possibility that geographical differences in species interactions might affect species distributions has received less attention. Investigating a predator-prey setting in a boreal forest ecosystem, we empirically show that large-scale differences in the predator community structure and small-scale competitive exclusion among predators affect the local distribution of a threatened forest specialist more than does landscape composition. Consequently, even though the landscape parameters affecting Siberian flying squirrel (Pteromys volans) distribution (prey) did not differ between nest sites of the predators Northern Goshawks (Accipiter gentilis) and Ural Owls (Strix uralensis), flying squirrels were heterospecifically attracted by goshawks in a region where both predator species were present. No such effect was found in another region where Ural Owls were absent. These results provide evidence that differences in species interactions over large spatial scales may be a major force influencing the distribution and abundance patterns of species. On the basis of these findings, we suspect that subtle species interactions might be a central reason why landscape models constructed to predict species distributions often fail when applied to wider geographical scales.     

What catch data can tell us about the status of global fisheries

The only available data set on the catches of global fisheries are the official landings reported annually by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO). Attempts to detect and interpret trends in these data have been criticized as being both technically and conceptually flawed. Here, we explore and refute these claims. We show explicitly that trends in catch data are not an artifact of the applied method and are consistent with trends in biomass data of fully assessed stocks. We also show that, while comprehensive stock assessments are the preferred method for evaluating single stocks, they are a biased subsample of the stocks in a given area, strongly underestimating the percentage of collapsed stocks. We concur with a recent assessment-based analysis by FAO that the increasing trends in the percentage of overexploited, depleted, and recovering stocks and the decreasing trends in underexploited and moderately exploited stocks give cause for concern. We show that these trends are much more pronounced if all available data are considered.