Incidence of thyroid disease following exposure to polybrominated biphenyls and polychlorinated biphenyls, Michigan, 1974-2006

Thyroid hormones, which influence body metabolism and development, could be affected by persistent organic pollutants. We sought to examine the relationship between polybrominated biphenyls (PBBs) and polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and thyroid disease. We employed incidence density sampling to perform a nested case control analysis of the Michigan Long-Term PBB Cohort. Cohort members (n = 3333) were exposed to PBBs through contaminated cattle feed in 1973-1974 and to PCBs through daily life. Those with detectable serum PBB and PCB concentrations at enrollment were categorized into tertiles of PBB and PCB exposure. Case-patients were cohort members answering “Yes” to “Has a healthcare provider ever told you that you had a thyroid problem?” during follow-up interviews; control-patients were cohort members answering “No”. We used odds ratios (OR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI) to compare odds of thyroid disease by PBB and PCB exposure and by various risk factors. Total cumulative thyroid disease incidence after 33 years was 13.9% among women and 2.6% among men. After adjusting for body mass index, we found no statistically significant differences in odds of any type of thyroid disease among women or men with elevated PBB or PCB exposure. Compared to control-patients, women with thyroid disease had increased odds of being overweight/obese (OR = 2.82, 95% CI: 1.94-4.11) and developing infertility (OR = 1.71, 95% CI: 1.08-2.69), diabetes (OR = 1.61, 95% CI: 1.04-2.51), or arthritis (OR = 1.71, 95% CI: 1.18-2.50) during follow-up. Additional research should explore potential associations between PBBs/PCBs and thyroid disease among children exposed in utero.     

Abiotic degradation (photodegradation and hydrolysis) of imidazolinone herbicides

The abiotic degradation of the imidazolinone herbicides imazapyr, imazethapyr and imazaquin was investigated under controlled conditions. Hydrolysis, where it occurred, and photodegradation both followed first-order kinetics for all herbicides. There was no hydrolysis of any of the herbicides in buffer solutions at pH 3 or pH 7; however, slow hydrolysis occurred at pH 9. Estimated half-lives for the three herbicides in solution in the dark were 6.5, 9.2 and 9.6 months for imazaquin, imazethapyr and imazapyr, respectively. Degradation of the herbicides in the light was considerably more rapid than in the dark with half lives for the three herbicides of 1.8, 9.8 and 9.1 days for imazaquin, imazethapyr and imazapyr, respectively. The presence of humic acids in the solution reduced the rate of photodegradation for all three herbicides, with higher concentrations of humic acids generally having greater effect. Photodegradation of imazethapyr was the least sensitive to humic acids. The enantioselectivity of photodegradation was investigated using imazaquin, with photodegradation occurring at the same rate for both enantiomers. Abiotic degradation of imidazolinone herbicides on the soil surface only occurred in the presence of light. The rate of degradation for all herbicides was slower than in solution, with half-lives of 15.3, 24.6 and 30.9 days for imazaquin, imazethapyr and imazapyr, respectively. Abiotic degradation of these herbicides is likely to be slow in the environment and is only likely to occur in clear water or on the soil surface.     

Biodiversity consequences of alternative future land use scenarios in Greater Yellowstone.

Land use is rapidly expanding in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem, primarily from growth in the number of rural homes. There is a need to project possible future land use and assess impacts on nature reserves as a guide to future management. We assessed the potential biodiversity impacts of alternative future land use scenarios in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem. An existing regression-based simulation model was used to project three alternative scenarios of future rural home development. The spatial patterns of forecasted development were then compared to several biodiversity response variables that included cover types, species habitats, and biodiversity indices. We identified the four biodiversity responses most at risk of exurban development, designed growth management policies to protect these areas, and tested their effectiveness in two alternative future scenarios. We found that the measured biodiversity responses, including riparian habitat, elk winter range, migration corridors, and eight other land cover, habitat, and biodiversity indices, are likely to undergo substantial conversion (between 5% and 40%) to exurban development by 2020. Future habitat conversion to exurban development outside the region's nature reserves is likely to impact wildlife populations within the reserves. Existing growth management policies will provide minimal protection to biodiversity in this region. We identified specific growth management policies, including incentives to cluster future growth near towns, that can protect "at risk" habitat types without limiting overall growth in housing.     

To roam or to home: site fidelity in a tropical coastal shark

Understanding patterns in site fidelity is important for defining the ecological role of species in the systems they use and for gauging the effects of human impacts on their populations. We analyzed long-term movement data of adult spottail sharks (Carcharhinus sorrah) in Cleveland Bay, Australia, to define the degree of site fidelity this species shows to coastal areas. Individuals were monitored in the study site for 28–566 days, and residency index (i.e., proportion of days present to total monitoring period) ranged from 0.08 to 0.95. Using a randomization procedure, we determined that the movement paths for 90 % of individuals (11 female and 7 male) were more constrained than random, with individuals exhibiting a high degree of site fidelity to consistent areas within the study site. Examining distances moved revealed that individuals used the same areas repeatedly and remained in close proximity (i.e., <6 km) to their location of first detection. While some individuals consistently used and returned back to the same locations, low residency among others suggests that a portion of the population may roam more widely. Long-term site fidelity to consistent areas may be a successful behavioral strategy for C. sorrah by increasing individual fitness through spatial familiarity and knowledge of resources.     

A Comprehensive Land-Use/Hydrological Modeling System for Scenario Simulations in the Elbow River Watershed, Alberta, Canada

The Elbow River watershed in Alberta covers an area of 1,238 km² and represents an important source of water for irrigation and municipal use. In addition to being located within the driest area of southern Canada, it is also subjected to considerable pressure for land development due to the rapid population growth in the City of Calgary. In this study, a comprehensive modeling system was developed to investigate the impact of past and future land-use changes on hydrological processes considering the complex surface–groundwater interactions existing in the watershed. Specifically, a spatially explicit land-use change model was coupled with MIKE SHE/MIKE 11, a distributed physically based catchment and channel flow model. Following a rigorous sensitivity analysis along with the calibration and validation of these models, four land-use change scenarios were simulated from 2010 to 2031: business as usual (BAU), new development concentrated within the Rocky View County (RV-LUC) and in Bragg Creek (BC-LUC), respectively, and development based on projected population growth (P-LUC). The simulation results reveal that the rapid urbanization and deforestation create an increase in overland flow, and a decrease in evapotranspiration (ET), baseflow, and infiltration mainly in the east sub-catchment of the watershed. The land-use scenarios affect the hydrology of the watershed differently. This study is the most comprehensive investigation of its nature done so far in the Elbow River watershed. The results obtained are in accordance with similar studies conducted in Canadian contexts. The proposed modeling system represents a unique and flexible framework for investigating a variety of water related sustainability issues.     

Biogeography and decline of rare plants in New England: historical evidence and contemporary monitoring.

Detecting range shifts and contractions is critical for determining the conservation priority of rare and declining taxa. However, data on rare species occurrences frequently lack precise information on locations and habitats and may present a biased picture of biogeographic distributions and presumed habitat preferences. Herbarium or museum specimen data, which otherwise could be useful proxies for detecting temporal trends and spatial patterns in species distributions, pose particular challenges. Using data from herbaria and Natural Heritage Programs on numbers of occurrences within individual municipalities (towns, cities, or townships), we quantified temporal changes in the estimated distributions of 110 rare plant species in the six New England (USA) states. We used the partial Solow equation and a nonparametric test to estimate the probability of observing multiple absences (gaps in the collection record) if a given population was actually still extant. Bayes' Theorem was used to estimate the probability that occurrences were misclassified as extinct. Using the probabilities obtained from these three methods, we eliminated taxa with high probabilities of pseudo-absence (that would yield an inaccurate profile of species distributions), narrowing the set for final analysis to 71 taxa. We then expressed occurrences as centroids of town polygons and estimated current and historical range areas (extents of occurrence as defined by alpha-hulls inscribing occurrences), mean distances between occurrences, and latitudinal and longitudinal range boundaries. Using a geographic information system, we modeled first, second, and third circular standard deviational polygons around the mean center of the historical range. Examining the distribution of current occurrences within each standard deviational polygon, we asked whether ranges were collapsing to a center, expanding, fragmenting, or contracting to a margin of the former range. Extant ranges of the species were, on average, almost 67% smaller than their historical ranges, and distances among occurrences decreased. Five New England hotspots were observed to contain >35% of rare plant populations. Extant occurrences were more frequently marginalized at the periphery of the historical range than would be expected by chance. Coarse-grained data on current and historical occurrences can be used to examine large suites of species to prioritize taxa and sites for conservation.     

Elevated CO2 affects the behavior of an ecologically and economically important coral reef fish

We tested the effect of near-future CO₂ levels (≈490, 570, 700, and 960 μatm CO₂) on the olfactory responses and activity levels of juvenile coral trout, Plectropomus leopardus, a piscivorous reef fish that is also one of the most important fisheries species on the Great Barrier Reef, Australia. Juvenile coral trout reared for 4 weeks at 570 μatm CO₂ exhibited similar sensory responses and behaviors to juveniles reared at 490 μatm CO₂ (control). In contrast, juveniles reared at 700 and 960 μatm CO₂ exhibited dramatically altered sensory function and behaviors. At these higher CO₂ concentrations, juveniles became attracted to the odor of potential predators, as has been observed in other reef fishes. They were more active, spent less time in shelter, ventured further from shelter, and were bolder than fish reared at 490 or 570 μatm CO₂. These results demonstrate that behavioral impairment of coral trout is unlikely if pCO₂ remains below 600 μatm; however, at higher levels, there are significant impacts on juvenile performance that are likely to affect survival and energy budgets, with consequences for predator–prey interactions and commercial fisheries.     

Development of clade-specific Symbiodinium primers for quantitative PCR (qPCR) and their application to detecting clade D symbionts in Caribbean corals

We developed quantitative PCR (qPCR) assays to distinguish each of the four clades (A–D) of dinoflagellate endosymbionts (genus Symbiodinium) commonly found in Caribbean corals. We applied these primer sets, which target portions of the multi-copy ribosomal DNA (rDNA) gene family, to assess the presence/absence of symbionts in clade D (as indicated by the detection of clade D DNA). We detected these symbionts in five of six Caribbean host species/genera (21% of samples analyzed, N = 10 of 47 colonies), from which clade D had rarely or never been observed. This suggests that Symbiodinium in clade D are present in a higher diversity of coral species than previously thought. This qPCR-based approach can improve our understanding of the total microbial diversity associated with corals, particularly in hosts thought to be relatively specific, and has many other potential applications for studies of coral reef ecology and conservation.     

Achieving sustainability goals for urban coasts in the US Northeast: research needs and challenges

In the wake of Hurricane Sandy and other recent extreme events, urban coastal communities in the northeast region of the United States are beginning or stepping up efforts to integrate climate adaptation and resilience into long-term coastal planning. Natural and nature-based shoreline strategies have emerged as essential components of coastal resilience and are frequently cited by practitioners, scientists, and the public for the wide range of ecosystem services they can provide. However, there is limited quantitative information associating particular urban shoreline design strategies with specific levels of ecosystem service provision, and research on this issue is not always aligned with decision context and decision-maker needs. Engagement between the research community, local government officials and sustainability practitioners, and the non-profit and private sectors can help bridge these gaps. A workshop to bring together these groups discussed research gaps and challenges in integrating ecosystem services into urban sustainability planning in the urban northeast corridor. Many themes surfaced repeatedly throughout workshop deliberations, including the challenges associated with ecosystem service valuation, the transferability of research and case studies within and outside the region, and the opportunity for urban coastal areas to be a focal point for education and outreach efforts related to ecosystem services.