Towards a contraction and convergence target based on population life expectancies since 1960

This paper explores a finding that emerged in the early phases of a multidisciplinary project applying population health and psychology to issues of social progress and sustainability. Across 180 countries and half a century of data, the levels of carbon emissions per capita that maximise life expectancy fall within a tight band averaging only 6.6 tonnes—considerably less than wealthier countries emit per person. Various tests fail to break down the curves and, although the authors remain cautious, the stability since 1960 offers implications for the carbon budget leading up to 2050. This is the first time these curves have been contextualised against established climate science, with timely implications for international negotiations on sustainability and development.     

Importance of individual and environmental variation for invasive species spread: a spatial integral projection model

Plant survival, growth, and flowering are size dependent in many plant populations but also vary among individuals of the same size. This individual variation, along with variation in dispersal caused by differences in, e.g., seed release height, seed characteristics, and wind speed, is a key determinant of the spread rate of species through homogeneous landscapes. Here we develop spatial integral projection models (SIPMs) that include both demography and dispersal with continuous state variables. The advantage of this novel approach over discrete-stage spread models is that the effect of variation in plant size and size-dependent vital rates can be studied at much higher resolution. Comparing Neubert-Caswell matrix models to SIPMs allowed us to assess the importance of including individual variation in the models. As a test case we parameterized a SIPM with previously published data on the invasive monocarpic thistle Carduus nutans in New Zealand. Spread rate (c*) estimates were 34% lower than for standard spatial matrix models and stabilized with as few as seven evenly distributed size classes. The SIPM allowed us to calculate spread rate elasticities over the range of plant sizes, showing the size range of seedlings that contributed most to c* through their survival, growth and reproduction. The annual transitions of these seedlings were also the most important ones for local population growth (lambda). However, seedlings that reproduced within a year contributed relatively more to c* than to lambda. In contrast, plants that grow over several years to reach a large size and produce many more seeds, contributed relatively more to lambda than to c*. We show that matrix models pick up some of these details, while other details disappear within wide size classes. Our results show that SIPMs integrate various sources of variation much better than discrete-stage matrix models. Simpler, heuristic models, however, remain very valuable in studies where the main goal is to investigate the general impact of a life history stage on population dynamics. We conclude with a discussion of future extensions of SIPMs, including incorporation of continuous time and environmental drivers.     

Electrolytic debromination of PBDEs in DE-83 technical decabromodiphenyl ether

Electrochemical debromination of the commercial decabromodiphenyl ether flame retardant DE-83 in partly aqueous tetrahydrofuran (THF) solution gave lower brominated congeners by sequential loss of bromine atoms. Hydrodebromination was most facile for the most heavily brominated congeners. It involves initial electron transfer and proton transfer from water, rather than hydrogen atom abstraction from THF, as shown by experiments with deuterated water. The product distribution from electrolysis involves preferential loss of bromine meta- and para- to the ether linkage, comparable with the products of metabolism of BDE-209 in various organisms. Significantly, the environmentally relevant congeners BDE-47, BDE-99, and BDE-154 were not major products of debromination of BDE-209 by the electron transfer mechanism.     

Repellent scent-marking of flowers by a guild of foraging bumblebees (Bombus spp.)

We have found that foraging bumblebees (Bombus hortorum, B. pascuorum, B. pratorum and B.␣terrestris) not only avoid flowers of Symphytum officinale that have recently been visited by conspecifics but also those that have been recently visited by heterospecifics. We propose that the decision whether to reject or accept a flower is influenced by a chemical odour that is left on the corolla by a forager, which temporarily repels subsequent foragers. Honeybees and carpenter bees have previously been shown to use similar repellent forage-marking scents. We found that flowers were repellent to other bumblebee foragers for approximately 20 min and also that after this time nectar levels in S. officinale flowers had largely replenished. Thus bumblebees could forage more efficiently by avoiding flowers with low rewards. Flowers to which extracts of tarsal components were applied were more often rejected by wild B. terrestris workers than flowers that had head extracts applied, which in turn were more often rejected than flowers that had body extracts applied. Extracts from four Bombus species were equally repellent to foragers. The sites of production of the repellent scent and its evolutionary origins are discussed. Received: 24 November 1997 / Accepted after revision: 8 March 1998     

Surplus territory contenders in male red-winged blackbirds: where are the desperados?

Summary We tested whether payoff asymmetries could explain why floater red-winged blackbirds seldom escalate contests to acquire territories. We removed territorial male \ldowners\rd and allowed floater replacements to claim territories. We then released owners to see how three currencies of payoff asymmetries (replacement occupancy) owners' likelihood and speed of reclaiming their territories (owner success). Neither the duration of an owner's internment nor the amount of time that a floater replacement had held the territory affected owner success (Figs. 1 and 2). Owner success was also not affected by the number of neighbors that they had (Fig. 3). Finally, owner success was the same irrespective of whether or not he was the likely sire of offspring on the territory, or the size of his harem (Fig. 4). Although these results are consistent with the proposal that payoff asymmetries will be irrelevant in contests for valuable resources, they are inconsistent with the proposal's corollary that excluded individuals should become \lddesperados\rd and escalate or even fight to the death in contests for those resources. Expected payoffs for passive acquisition of territories in this species may be higher than from a more aggressive desperado strategy.Correspondence to: P.J. Weatherhead     

An approach for assessment of water quality using semipermeable membrane devices (SPMDs) and bioindicator tests

As an integral part of our continued development of water quality assessment approaches, we combined integrative sampling, instrumental analysis of widely occurring anthropogenic contaminants, and the application of a suite of bioindicator tests as a specific part of a broader survey of ecological conditions, species diversity, and habitat quality in the Santa Cruz River in Arizona, USA. Lipid-containing semipermeable membrane devices (SPMDs) were employed to sequester waterborne hydrophobic chemicals. Instrumental analysis and a suite of bioindicator tests were used to determine the presence and potential toxicological relevance of mixtures of bioavailable chemicals in two major water sources of the Santa Cruz River. The SPMDs were deployed at two sites; the effluent weir of the International Wastewater Treatment Plant (IWWTP) and the Nogales Wash. Both of these systems empty into the Santa Cruz River and the IWWTP effluent is a potential source of water for a constructed wetland complex. Analysis of the SPMD sample extracts revealed the presence of organochlorine pesticides (OCs), polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs). The bioindicator tests demonstrated increased liver enzyme activity, perturbation of neurotransmitter systems and potential endocrine disrupting effects (vitellogenin induction) in fish exposed to the extracts. With increasing global demands on limited water resources, the approach described herein provides an assessment paradigm applicable to determining the quality of water in a broad range of aquatic systems.     

Relationships between marine microorganisms and the wood-boring isopod Limnoria tripunctata

The quantities and the behavior of particulate proteinous carbon (PPC) were investigated at an experimental station in Funka Bay, southern Hokkaido from February 1974 to January 1975 using R. V. Ushio Maru. The amino acid composition of PPC, quantity of particulate organic carbon (POC), PPC:POC ratio, concentration of plant pigments and the primary productivity and heterotrophic activity in situ were measured to clarify PPC status. The net production was ca. 100 g C m^-2 year^-1. The inflow of Oyashio water and stagnation during early spring and summer may increase productivity. The net production during this period attained 70% of the net production for the whole year. The concentration of chlorophyll changed monthly parallel to changes in the primary production of the surface waters. The concentration of PPC and the PPC:POC ratio in the surface layer decreased gradually during the stagnation period of the Oyashio water. This implies that the PPC in the particulate organic matter was more easily consumed than the other organic constituents by the increased heterotrophic activity in summer. In contrast, low concentrations of PPC and high PPC:POC ratios were found during the stagnation period of Tsugaru warm water from autumn to winter. Concentrations of PPC and POC were not evenly distributed throughout the year; they decreased with depth during the stagnation period in summer. On the other hand, higher concentrations of PPC and POC, and an increased PPC:POC ratio were noted in samples collected near the sea bed, compared with the concentration and the ratio of the upper layer throughout the year. It seems likely that the particulate organic matter, originating from resuspension of bottom sediments containing proteins, was produced by the benthos. The turnover time of PPC in the upper layer was 7 to 11 days in summer and 45 to 100 days in winter; the turnover time for POC was 14 to 28 days in summer and 97 to 147 days in winter.     

Geographic variation in Loligo forbesi in the Northeast Atlantic Ocean: analysis of morphometric data and tests of causal hypotheses

Geographic variation in the squid Loligo forbesi was investigated using multivariate analysis of morphometric and meristic characters in samples of squid taken from 13 localities in the Northeast Atlantic Ocean. Two character sets, body morphometrics and beak morphometrics, indicated similar patterns of variation, with squid from the Azores differing markedly from those on the continental shelf. No consistent pattern was apparent in meristic data. Partial Mantel tests indicated that similarity matrices for morphological data were significantly correlated with distance matrices for (a) geographic proximity, (b) whether the capture site was on the continental shelf or the Azorean bank, and (c) (beak data only) average seasurface temperature at site of capture. Partial Mantel tests on allozyme data for the same individuals support hypothesis (b). The results suggest that L. forbesi in the Azores may reasonably be regarded as a distinct stock, differing significantly from L. forbesi on the continental shelf.