Using a Bayesian network to clarify areas requiring research in a host–pathogen system

Bayesian network analyses can be used to interactively change the strength of effect of variables in a model to explore complex relationships in new ways. In doing so, they allow one to identify influential nodes that are not well studied empirically so that future research can be prioritized. We identified relationships in host and pathogen biology to examine disease‐driven declines of amphibians associated with amphibian chytrid fungus (Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis). We constructed a Bayesian network consisting of behavioral, genetic, physiological, and environmental variables that influence disease and used them to predict host population trends. We varied the impacts of specific variables in the model to reveal factors with the most influence on host population trend. The behavior of the nodes (the way in which the variables probabilistically responded to changes in states of the parents, which are the nodes or variables that directly influenced them in the graphical model) was consistent with published results. The frog population had a 49% probability of decline when all states were set at their original values, and this probability increased when body temperatures were cold, the immune system was not suppressing infection, and the ambient environment was conducive to growth of B. dendrobatidis. These findings suggest the construction of our model reflected the complex relationships characteristic of host–pathogen interactions. Changes to climatic variables alone did not strongly influence the probability of population decline, which suggests that climate interacts with other factors such as the capacity of the frog immune system to suppress disease. Changes to the adaptive immune system and disease reservoirs had a large effect on the population trend, but there was little empirical information available for model construction. Our model inputs can be used as a base to examine other systems, and our results show that such analyses are useful tools for reviewing existing literature, identifying links poorly supported by evidence, and understanding complexities in emerging infectious‐disease systems.     

Design and risk assessment tool for vegetative treatment areas receiving agricultural wastewater: Preliminary results

Vegetative treatment areas (VTAs) are commonly being used as an alternative method of agricultural process wastewater treatment. However, it is also apparent that to completely prevent discharge of pollutants to the surrounding environment, settling of particulates and bound constituents from overland flow through VTAs is not sufficient. For effective remediation of dissolved agricultural pollutants, VTAs must infiltrate incoming wastewater. A simple water balance model for predicting VTA soil saturation and surface discharge in landscapes characterized by sloping terrain and a shallow restrictive layer is presented and discussed. The model accounts for the cumulative effect of successive rainfall events and wastewater input on soil moisture status and depth to water table. Nash–Sutcliffe efficiencies ranged from 0.65 to 0.81 for modeled and observed water table elevations after calibration of saturated hydraulic conductivity. Precipitation data from relatively low, average, and high annual rainfall years were used with soil, site, and contributing area data from an example VTA for simulations and comparisons. Model sensitivity to VTA width and contributing area (i.e. barnyard, feedlot, silage bunker, etc.) curve number was also investigated. Results of this analysis indicate that VTAs should be located on steeper slopes with deeper, more-permeable soils, which effectively lowers the shallow water table. In sloping landscapes (>2%), this model provides practitioners an easy-to-use VTA design and/or risk assessment tool that is more hydrological process-based than current methods.     

Growth of northern deciduous trees under increasing atmospheric humidity: possible mechanisms behind the growth retardation

Regional Environmental Change - Increasing atmospheric humidity—a climate trend predicted for northern Europe—will reduce water flux through vegetation. Diminished transpirational water...     

Integrated assessment of a new Waste-to-Energy facility in Central Greece in the context of regional perspectives

The main aim of this study is the integrated assessment of a proposed Waste-to-Energy facility that could contribute in the Municipal Solid Waste Management system of the Region of Central Greece. In the context of this paper alternative transfer schemes for supplying the candidate facility were assessed considering local conditions and economical criteria. A mixed-integer linear programming model was applied for the determination of optimum locations of Transfer Stations for an efficient supplying chain between the waste producers and the Waste-to-Energy facility. Moreover different Regional Waste Management Scenarios were assessed against multiple criteria, via the Multi Criteria Decision Making method ELECTRE III. The chosen criteria were total cost, Biodegradable Municipal Waste diversion from landfill, energy recovery and Greenhouse Gas emissions and the analysis demonstrated that a Waste Management Scenario based on a Waste-to-Energy plant with an adjacent landfill for disposal of the residues would be the best performing option for the Region, depending however on the priorities of the decision makers. In addition the study demonstrated that efficient planning is necessary and the case of three sanitary landfills operating in parallel with the WtE plant in the study area should be avoided. Moreover alternative cases of energy recovery of the candidate Waste-to-Energy facility were evaluated against the requirements of the new European Commission Directive on waste in order for the facility to be recognized as recovery operation. The latter issue is of high significance and the decision makers in European Union countries should take it into account from now on, in order to plan and implement facilities that recover energy efficiently. Finally a sensitivity check was performed in order to evaluate the effects of increased recycling rate, on the calorific value of treated Municipal Solid Waste and the gate fee of the candidate plant and found that increased recycling efforts would not diminish the potential for incineration with energy recovery from waste and neither would have adverse impacts on the gate fee of the Waste-to-Energy plant. In general, the study highlighted the need for efficient planning in solid waste management, by taking into account multiple criteria and parameters and utilizing relevant tools and methodologies into this context.     

Human impact on wild firewood species in the Rural Andes community of Apillapampa, Bolivia

Firewood is the basic fuel source in rural Bolivia. A study was conducted in an Andean village of subsistence farmers to investigate human impact on wild firewood species. A total of 114 different fuel species was inventoried during fieldtrips and transect sampling. Specific data on abundance and growth height of wild firewood species were collected in thirty-six transects of 50 ×2 m². Information on fuel uses of plants was obtained from 13 local Quechua key participants. To appraise the impact of fuel harvest, the extraction impact value (EIV) index was developed. This index takes into account local participants?? appreciation of (1) decreasing plant abundance; (2) regeneration capacity of plants; (3) impact of root harvesting; and (4) quality of firewood. Results suggest that several (sub-)woody plant species are negatively affected by firewood harvesting. We found that anthropogenic pressure, expressed as EIV, covaried with density of firewood species, which could entail higher human pressure on more abundant and/or more accessible species. The apparent negative impact of anthropogenic pressure on populations of wild fuel species is corroborated by our finding that, in addition to altitude, several anthropogenic variables (i.e. site accessibility, cultivation of exotics and burning practices) explain part of the variation in height of firewood species in the surroundings of Apillapampa.     

Urinary stones as a novel matrix for human biomonitoring of toxic and essential elements

Monitoring of body burden of toxic elements is usually based on analysis of concentration of particular elements in blood, urine and/or hair. Analysis of these matrices, however, predominantly reflects short- or medium-term exposure to trace elements or pollutants. In this work, urinary stones were investigated as a matrix for monitoring long-term exposure to toxic and essential elements. A total of 431 samples of urinary calculi were subjected to mineralogical and elemental analysis by infrared spectroscopy and inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry. The effect of mineralogical composition of the stones and other parameters such as sex, age and geographical location on contents of trace and minor elements is presented. Our results demonstrate the applicability of such approach and confirm that the analysis of urinary calculi can be helpful in providing complementary information on human exposure to trace metals and their excretion. Analysis of whewellite stones (calcium oxalate monohydrate) with content of phosphorus <0.6 % has been proved to be a promising tool for biomonitoring of trace and minor elements.

     

Geochemical distribution,bioavailability and potential toxicity of some trace metals in a complex micro-tidal estuary,Southwest India

The spatial and temporal variations of some trace metals in the surface sediments of Cochin Estuary were analyzed along with their geochemical associations to identify the possible sources, bioavailability and the health risks posed by them. The dominance of kaolinite and suggested that clay minerals distribution is influenced by sediment sorting. Total metal analysis revealed enrichment for Cd, Pb and Zn due to anthropogenic activities. The speciation analysis established that notwithstanding the large availability, carbonate as well as organic and sulfides bound fractions showed negligible associations with most of the metals. Hydrous Fe–Mn oxides appeared to play a major role in controlling the fate and transport of these metals in the sediments of Cochin Estuary. Lower contribution of the residual fractions for Cd (21%–26%), Pb (<60%) and Zn (24%–42%) indicated an obvious increase of other geochemical fractions. Risk assessment analysis revealed that regardless of total concentration, none of the analyzed metals were at safe levels in the estuary as appreciable percentages were found to be associated with mobile geochemical forms. The speciation study conspicuously established that the metals originating from non-geogenic sources are largely associated with the labile fractions and hence are more detrimental to the aquatic biota.     

Quantifying population declines based on presence‐only records for red‐list assessments

Accurate trend estimates are necessary for understanding which species are declining and which are most in need of conservation action. Imperfect species detection may result in unreliable trend estimates because this may lead to the overestimation of declines. Because many management decisions are based on population trend estimates, such biases could have severe consequences for conservation policy. We used an occupancy‐modeling framework to estimate detectability and calculate nationwide population trends for 14 Swiss amphibian species both accounting for and ignoring imperfect detection. Through the application of International Union for Conservation of Nature Red List criteria to the different trend estimates, we assessed whether ignoring imperfect detection could affect conservation policy. Imperfect detection occurred for all species and detection varied substantially among species, which led to the overestimation of population declines when detectability was ignored. Consequently, accounting for imperfect detection lowered the red‐list risk category for 5 of the 14 species assessed. We demonstrate that failing to consider species detectability can have serious consequences for species management and that occupancy modeling provides a flexible framework to account for observation bias and improve assessments of conservation status. A problem inherent to most historical records is that they contain presence‐only data from which only relative declines can be estimated. A move toward the routine recording of nonobservation and absence data is essential if conservation practitioners are to move beyond this toward accurate population trend estimation.     

Molten carbonate fuel cells fed with biogas: Combating H2S

The use of biomass and waste to produce alternative fuels, due to environmental and energy security reasons, is a high-quality solution especially when integrated with high efficiency fuel cell applications. In this article we look into the coupling of an anaerobic digestion process of organic residues to electrochemical conversion to electricity and heat through a molten carbonate fuel cell (MCFC). In particular the pathway of the exceedingly harmful compound hydrogen sulphide (H₂S) in these phases is analysed. Hydrogen sulphide production in the biogas is strongly interrelated with methane and/or hydrogen yield, as well as with operating conditions like temperature and pH. When present in the produced biogas, this compound has multiple negative effects on the performance and durability of an MCFC. Therefore, there are important issues of integration to be solved.Three general approaches to solve the sulphur problem in the MCFC are possible. The first is to prevent the formation of hydrogen sulphide at the source: favouring conditions that inhibit its production during fermentation. Secondly, to identify the sulphur tolerance levels of the fuel cell components currently in use and develop sulphur-tolerant components that show long-term electrochemical performance and corrosion stability. The third approach is to remove the generated sulphur species to very low levels before the gas enters the fuel cell.