The Spitak (Armenia, USSR) Earthquake: Residential Building Typology and Seismic Behaviour

The 1988 earthquake in Armenia was the most serious seismic disaster since the 1976 earthquake in Tangshan, China. At least 25,000 people lost their lives in a tremor of moderate magnitude and the USSR suffered a loss of more than 2.5 per cent of 1988's GDP. Research at the Martin Centre on the effects of earthquakes on human lives has shown an increase in global earthquake mortality rate, despite the well known improvements in some countries. The Armenian disaster was a warning to all of us concerned with natural or man-made disasters. Areas of potential high hazard are pointed out for the sub-Caucasian region. Construction practices similar to those in Armenia are certainly found in many other parts of the world, with some regional variations, and the fast assimilation of the lessons is an important target. The structural characteristics of all the residential building types existing in the affected area are presented in terms of their seismic vulnerability. Vulnerable points are discussed with a view to low cost interventions that will drastically improve the seismic safety of new buildings.     

Pastoral and environmental security in East Africa

The most vulnerable people in Third World countries are often accused of destroying forests and fragile ecosystems and of practising destructive forms of agriculture and animal husbandry. The key to environmental sustainability, however, lies in more reliable production and food security at the local level. This article focuses on individual and household security amongst dryland herders in East Africa. The most crucial aspect of pastoral viability is the maintenance of a balance between family herd and size of household. Risk-spreading, through dependence on relatives, the borrowing of animals, redistribution through marriage etc. is a general principle of social behaviour amongst these peoples. Consideration of local-level security, furthermore, reveals the connection between ecological stress and political conflict. Only by establishing secure access to food for individuals and families can sustainable development and political security, not only at the local but also at the national and international levels, be achieved.     

Follow-up to environmental impact assessment: Learning from the Canadian Government experience

The environmental impact assessment procedure for Canadian federal government projects is briefly described. In the non-legislated Canadian system, follow-up to assessments is one of the major means of encouraging and improving the implementation of environmental impact assessment and the quality of environmental work done around development projects. The results of a study on the status of follow-up in the Canadian Government are presented. Factors that limit and that are conducive to follow-up are discussed. The effectiveness of follow-up depends as much on the circumstances surrounding a project and the concerned parties as on the follow-up techniques used; both of these aspects can be addressed in the planning and management of follow-up and of environmental impact assessment overall. Areas for improving the management of follow-up are identified and discussed: planning of follow-up activities, coordination of concerned parties, generation of clear understandings, information management, resource allocation, and maintenance of credibility. A method for planning follow-up activities for specific projects is presented.     

Soil sampling and analysis for volatile organic compounds

Concerns over data quality have raised many questions related to sampling soils for volatile organic compounds (VOCs). This paper was prepared in response to some of these questions and concerns expressed by Remedial Project Managers (RPMs) and On-Scene Coordinators (OSCs). The following questions are frequently asked:

1. Is there a specific device suggested for sampling soils for VOCs?
2. Are there significant losses of VOCs when transferring a soil sample from a sampling device (e.g., split spoon) into the sample container?
3. What is the best method for getting the sample from the split spoon (or other device) into the sample container?
4. Are there smaller devices such as subcore samplers available for collecting aliquots from the larger core and efficiently transferring the sample into the sample container?
5. Are certain containers better than others for shipping and storing soil samples for VOC analysis?
6. Are there any reliable preservation procedures for reducing VOC losses from soil samples and for extending holding times?

Guidance is provided for selecting the most effective sampling device for collecting samples from soil matrices. The techniques for sample collection, sample handling, containerizing, shipment, and storage described in this paper reduce VOC losses and generally provide more representative samples for volatile organic analyses (VOA) than techniques in current use. For a discussion on the proper use of sampling equipment the reader should refer to other sources (Acker, 1974; U.S. EPA, 1983; U.S. EPA, 1986a). Soil, as referred to in this report, encompasses the mass (surface and subsurface) of unconsolidated mantle of weathered rock and loose material lying above solid rock. Further, a distinction must be made as to what fraction of the unconsolidated material is soil and what fraction is not. The soil component here is defined as all mineral and naturally occurring organic material that is 2 mm or less in size. This is the size normally used to differentiate between soils (consisting of sands, silts, and clays) and gravels. Although numerous sampling situations may be encountered, this paper focuses on three broad categories of sites that might be sampled for VOCs:

1. Open test pit or trench.
2. Surface soils (<5 ft in depth).
3. Subsurface soils (>5 ft in depth).

     

Analysis of two-way layout of count data with negative binomial variation

A number of methods has been proposed for dealing with single-factor or factorial experiments when the requirements for performing the normal theory analysis of variance procedure are not satisfied. This paper suggests the use of the likelihood ratio statistic for testing the main effects and the interaction between the factors in two-way layout of count data following negative binomial distributions with a common dispersion parameter. The likelihood ratio statistic for testing the equality of the dispersion parameters of several groups of count data is also derived. The methods is illustrated by an example concerning the study of spatial and temporal variation of bacterial counts.     

Robust graphical methods for diagnosing trend in irregularly spaced water quality time series

Graphical methods can play an important role in the reliable assessment of trends in typically ill behaved river quality data series both as diagnostic tools and as visual corroborative evidence when assumptions required for formal statistical tests are not met. Robust, graphically-oriented trend diagnosis procedures are presented for data series characterized by nonnormal populations, uneven time spacing, nonmonotonic trend and other factors which can create serious problems for standard parametric time series methods. Cleveland's robust locally weighted regression (RLWR) developed for investigating nonlinearity in x-y scatterplots is adapted as a robust/resistant smoothing filter for the analysis of irregular time series comprising quantitative observations. Low powered RLWR trend lines reveal temporally local phenomena, e.g. abrupt jumps (often associated with point source impacts) and periodicities, while higher powered RLWR yields smooth lines characterizing medium and longer term trends. Simple variants of Tukey smoothing concepts are developed for series with censored observations. Applications to Ontario river quality series reveal that graphical evidence is frequently sufficient to obviate the need for formal trend testing. The methods are generally applicable to most time series.     

The eolian sand problems arising from desertification

Eolian (wind blown) sand constitutes a very serious problem to development in sandy desert lands and causes equally serious problems in lands that are undergoing desertification. In this paper, eolian sand movement due to bulk movement such as sand dune and ripple movement, sand drift by saltation, and sand storms by strong winds are discussed. Associated problems such as eolian sand encroachment on highways, farms, communities and industrial complexes are also discussed and workable solutions are offered. Solutions include chemical stabilization of the surface grains, fences to trap the blown sand and vegetation to prevent soil deflation. Vegetation is emphasized and recommended as the ultimate viable solution to combat desertification and eolian sand problems.