“We cannot let this happen again”: reversing UK flood policy in response to the Somerset Levels floods, 2014

The Multiple Streams Framework offers a theoretical account of how policy proposals move from latent possibilities to becoming favored for implementation. We apply this framework in the context of the policy response to the 2013–2014 flooding of the Somerset Levels and Moors. Stakeholder interviews and analysis of news media coverage evidence the way in which a specific policy option that had fallen out of favor with the national Environment Agency – dredging – came to the fore and was eventually adopted during the period in which the conjunction of problem, policy, and political pressures came to a head. Local political activists mobilized a wider campaign with the help of social media and capitalized on national political sensitivities to successfully promote dredging. What is less clear is the longevity of the policy reversal, given funding constraints.     

Empirical Trials of Plant Field Guides

We designed 3 image‐based field guides to tropical forest plant species in Ghana, Grenada, and Cameroon and tested them with 1095 local residents and 20 botanists in the United Kingdom. We compared users’ identification accuracy with different image formats, including drawings, specimen photos, living plant photos, and paintings. We compared users’ accuracy with the guides to their accuracy with only their prior knowledge of the flora. We asked respondents to score each format for usability, beauty, and how much they would pay for it. Prior knowledge of plant names was generally low (<22%). With a few exceptions, identification accuracy did not differ significantly among image formats. In Cameroon, users identifying sterile Cola species achieved 46–56% accuracy across formats; identification was most accurate with living plant photos. Botanists in the United Kingdom accurately identified 82–93% of the same Cameroonian species; identification was most accurate with specimens. In Grenada, users accurately identified 74–82% of plants; drawings yielded significantly less accurate identifications than paintings and photos of living plants. In Ghana, users accurately identified 85% of plants. Digital color photos of living plants ranked high for beauty, usability, and what users would pay. Black and white drawings ranked low. Our results show the potential and limitations of the use of field guides and nonspecialists to identify plants, for example, in conservation applications. We recommend authors of plant field guides use the cheapest or easiest illustration format because image type had limited bearing on accuracy; match the type of illustration to the most likely use of the guide for slight improvements in accuracy; avoid black and white formats unless the audience is experienced at interpreting illustrations or keeping costs low is imperative; discourage false‐positive identifications, which were common; and encourage users to ask an expert or use a herbarium for groups that are difficult to identify. Pruebas Empíricas de Guías de Campo de Plantas Hawthorne, Cable & Marshall     

The temporal stability and developmental differences in the environmental impacts of militarism: the treadmill of destruction and consumption-based carbon emissions

This study examines the relationship between national-level militarism and consumption-based carbon dioxide emissions. We analyze panel data from 1990 to 2010 for 81 nations to determine whether the magnitude of the effects of (1) military expenditures as percent of total gross domestic product and (2) military personnel as percent of total labor force on carbon emissions change over time. Results of two-way fixed effects models highlight the temporal stability of the environmental impacts of both national-level military characteristics. The findings also reveal that the effect of military expenditures on emissions is larger in the more developed OECD nations than in the developing non-OECD nations. Overall, the results support the treadmill of destruction perspective, which suggests that the nations’ militaries are an important social institution to consider in sustainability science research on the human drivers of global environmental change.     

Carbon dioxide emissions,output, and energy consumption categories in Algeria

This study examines the relation between CO₂ emissions, income, non-renewable, and renewable energy consumption in Algeria during the period extending from 1980 to 2011. Our work gives particular attention to the validity of environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) hypothesis. The autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) with break point method outcome demonstrates the positive effect of non-renewable type of energy on CO₂ emissions consumption. On the contrary, the results reveal an insignificant effect of renewable energy on environment improvement. Moreover, the results accept the existence of EKC hypothesis but the highest gross domestic product value in logarithm scale of our data is inferior to the estimated turning point. Consequently, policy-makers in Algeria should expand the ratio of renewable energy and should decrease the quota of non-renewable energy consumption.     

Optimal Policy Mechanism Design for Cross-Sector and Multi-Stage Pollution Control with a Bilevel Model: Application to SO<Subscript>2</Subscript> Emission in China

In this paper, we construct a multi-stage coordinated programming model under tax system to control SO₂ emission. The model is based on an explicitly formulated SO₂ abatement cost function created under Chinese condition. Analysis of the effectiveness and impact on the economy of the model is carried out with consideration of game theory. By solving the model, theoretical results show that the volume-based multi-stage SO₂ tax system has two properties: effectiveness and equal-rate. Based on these theoretical results, empirical study is also performed using Chinese historical data. Compared with yearly single-stage programming model, the tax rate generated by the coordinated multi-stage programming model is time-invariant and rather moderate in scale. The total abatement cost among planning years in our model is 21.03 % less than the actual number and 6.68 % less than that in the single-stage situation. The tax payment suggested by our model is 10.62 % less than by the single-stage model. In general, a coordinated multi-stage programming model helps reduce the overall costs of environmental protection while achieving the same emission control target with less burden added to the economy.     

Dissipation kinetics,safety evaluation,and assessment of pre-harvest interval (PHI) and processing factor for kresoxim methyl residues in grape

A field dissipation study was conducted to evaluate the pre-harvest interval (PHI) and processing factor (PF) for kresoxim methyl (Ergon 44.3 SC) residues in grapes and during raisin making process at recommended dose (RD) and double the recommended dose (DRD). Kresoxim methyl residues dissipated following 1st-order kinetics with a half-life of 10 and 18 days at RD and DRD, respectively. The PHIs with respect to the European Union maximum residue limit (EU-MRL) of 1 mg kg^?1 for grapes were 13 and 30 days at RD and DRD, respectively. The degradation data during grape to raisin making process were best fitted to nonlinear 1st?+?1st-order kinetics with a half-life ranging between 4 and 8 days for both shade drying and with raisin dryer at different doses. The PFs were 1.19 and 1.24 with shade drying and 1.09 and 1.10 with raisin dryer, respectively, which indicates concentration of the residues during raisin making process. The dietary exposure of kresoxim methyl on each sampling day was less than the respective maximum permissible intake both at RD and DRD. The residues of kresoxim methyl in market samples of grapes and raisins were well below the EU-MRL and were also devoid of any risk of acute toxicity related to dietary exposure.     

Two Hundred Years of Local Avian Extinctions in Eastern Amazonia

Local, regional, and global extinctions caused by habitat loss, degradation, and fragmentation have been widely reported for the tropics. The patterns and drivers of this loss of species are now increasingly well known in Amazonia, but there remains a significant gap in understanding of long‐term trends in species persistence and extinction in anthropogenic landscapes. Such a historical perspective is critical for understanding the status and trends of extant biodiversity as well as for identifying priorities to halt further losses. Using extensive historical data sets of specimen records and results of contemporary surveys, we searched for evidence of local extinctions of a terra firma rainforest avifauna over 200 years in a 2500 km² eastern Amazonian region around the Brazilian city of Belém. This region has the longest history of ornithological fieldwork in the entire Amazon basin and lies in the highly threatened Belém Centre of Endemism. We also compared our historically inferred extinction events with extensive data on species occurrences in a sample of catchments in a nearby municipality (Paragominas) that encompass a gradient of past forest loss. We found evidence for the possible extinction of 47 species (14% of the regional species pool) that were unreported from 1980 to 2013 (80% last recorded between 1900 and 1980). Seventeen species appear on the International Union for Conservation of Nature Red List, and many of these are large‐bodied. The species lost from the region immediately around Belém are similar to those which are currently restricted to well‐forested catchments in Paragominas. Although we anticipate the future rediscovery or recolonization of some species inferred to be extinct by our calculations, we also expect that there are likely to be additional local extinctions, not reported here, given the ongoing loss and degradation of remaining areas of native vegetation across eastern Amazonia. Doscientos Años de Extinciones Locales de Aves en la Amazonia Oriental     

The measurement of water scarcity: Defining a meaningful indicator

Metrics of water scarcity and stress have evolved over the last three decades from simple threshold indicators to holistic measures characterising human environments and freshwater sustainability. Metrics commonly estimate renewable freshwater resources using mean annual river runoff, which masks hydrological variability, and quantify subjectively socio-economic conditions characterising adaptive capacity. There is a marked absence of research evaluating whether these metrics of water scarcity are meaningful. We argue that measurement of water scarcity (1) be redefined physically in terms of the freshwater storage required to address imbalances in intra- and inter-annual fluxes of freshwater supply and demand; (2) abandons subjective quantifications of human environments and (3) be used to inform participatory decision-making processes that explore a wide range of options for addressing freshwater storage requirements beyond dams that include use of renewable groundwater, soil water and trading in virtual water. Further, we outline a conceptual framework redefining water scarcity in terms of freshwater storage.     

Developing Metapopulation Connectivity Criteria from Genetic and Habitat Data to Recover the Endangered Mexican Wolf

Restoring connectivity between fragmented populations is an important tool for alleviating genetic threats to endangered species. Yet recovery plans typically lack quantitative criteria for ensuring such population connectivity. We demonstrate how models that integrate habitat, genetic, and demographic data can be used to develop connectivity criteria for the endangered Mexican wolf (Canis lupus baileyi), which is currently being restored to the wild from a captive population descended from 7 founders. We used population viability analysis that incorporated pedigree data to evaluate the relation between connectivity and persistence for a restored Mexican wolf metapopulation of 3 populations of equal size. Decreasing dispersal rates greatly increased extinction risk for small populations (<150–200), especially as dispersal rates dropped below 0.5 genetically effective migrants per generation. We compared observed migration rates in the Northern Rocky Mountains (NRM) wolf metapopulation to 2 habitat‐based effective distance metrics, least‐cost and resistance distance. We then used effective distance between potential primary core populations in a restored Mexican wolf metapopulation to evaluate potential dispersal rates. Although potential connectivity was lower in the Mexican wolf versus the NRM wolf metapopulation, a connectivity rate of >0.5 genetically effective migrants per generation may be achievable via natural dispersal under current landscape conditions. When sufficient data are available, these methods allow planners to move beyond general aspirational connectivity goals or rules of thumb to develop objective and measurable connectivity criteria that more effectively support species recovery. The shift from simple connectivity rules of thumb to species‐specific analyses parallels the previous shift from general minimum‐viable‐population thresholds to detailed viability modeling in endangered species recovery planning. Desarrollo de Criterios de Conectividad Metapoblacional a Partir de Datos Genéticos y de Hábitat para Recuperar al Lobo Mexicano en Peligro de Extinción