The Role of Disaggregation of Asset Values in Flood Loss Estimation: A Comparison of Different Modeling Approaches at the Mulde River,Germany

In loss estimation there is a spatial mismatch of hazard data that are commonly modeled on an explicit raster level and exposure data that are often available only for aggregated administrative units. Usually disaggregation methods that use ancillary information to distribute lumped exposure data in a finer spatial resolution help to bridge this gap. However, the actual influence of different mapping techniques and ancillary data on the final loss estimation has not been analyzed yet. In this paper three methods are applied to disaggregate residential building assets using two kinds of land use/land cover (LULC) data. The resulting disaggregated assets are validated and compared using census data of the residential building number on the community and constituency level. In addition, the disaggregated assets are taken to estimate residential building losses due to the flood in August 2002 in 21 municipalities on the River Mulde in Saxony, Germany. Losses are calculated with the help of four loss models. In general, disaggregation helps to decrease the error variance within the loss estimation. It must, however, be stated that the application of sophisticated disaggregation methods does not lead to significant improvements compared to the straightforward binary method. Therefore more effort should instead be put into the provision of high-resolution LULC data. Finally, the remaining uncertainties in loss estimation are high and demand further improvements in all modeling aspects.     

Can public participation help managing risks from natural hazards?

Most of the mitigation measures against natural hazards can not be perfectly allocated via the common market mechanism, given their principle character of being a public good. Thus, different instruments need to be applied to retrieve their values. Economic valuation tools are one alternative to estimate preferences of individuals towards these goods. These methods are often difficult to operationalise and are not a feasible task for every single project. An alternative is offered by direct preference representation through involving affected interest groups actively in decisions. A critical question is whether the decision on protection measures can be left to public participation or should remain in the experts’ decision responsibility. It can be observed that the latter mode shows inefficiencies. In this paper, it is argued that participation could be one way to bring about the desired goal of increasing efficiency. The present work offers a discussion of the relevant political economic concepts in order to introduce the idea that participation can increase efficiency through achieving the Pareto criterion claimed in the realm of constitutional economics. Furthermore it will be shown that decision aiding tools, namely multi-criteria analysis, can integrate participation into actual decision making processes in a structured way.     

Understanding Interaction Effects of Climate Change and Fire Management on Bird Distributions through Combined Process and Habitat Models

Abstract: Avian conservation efforts must account for changes in vegetation composition and structure associated with climate change. We modeled vegetation change and the probability of occurrence of birds to project changes in winter bird distributions associated with climate change and fire management in the northern Chihuahuan Desert (southwestern U.S.A.). We simulated vegetation change in a process‐based model (Landscape and Fire Simulator) in which anticipated climate change was associated with doubling of current atmospheric carbon dioxide over the next 50 years. We estimated the relative probability of bird occurrence on the basis of statistical models derived from field observations of birds and data on vegetation type, topography, and roads. We selected 3 focal species, Scaled Quail (Callipepla squamata), Loggerhead Shrike (Lanius ludovicianus), and Rock Wren (Salpinctes obsoletus), that had a range of probabilities of occurrence for our study area. Our simulations projected increases in relative probability of bird occurrence in shrubland and decreases in grassland and Yucca spp. and ocotillo (Fouquieria splendens) vegetation. Generally, the relative probability of occurrence of all 3 species was highest in shrubland because leaf‐area index values were lower in shrubland. This high probability of occurrence likely is related to the species’ use of open vegetation for foraging. Fire suppression had little effect on projected vegetation composition because as climate changed there was less fuel and burned area. Our results show that if future water limits on plant type are considered, models that incorporate spatial data may suggest how and where different species of birds may respond to vegetation changes.     

The importance of monitoring and evaluation in adaptive maritime spatial planning

Adaptive maritime spatial planning (MSP) uses monitoring and evaluation of the effectiveness of spatial and temporal management measures to promote understanding and improve planning and decision-making. An adaptive approach to MSP involves exploring alternative ways to meet management objectives, predicting the outcomes of alternative management measures, implementing one or more of these alternative management measures, monitoring to learn about the effects of management measures, and then using the results to update knowledge and adjust management actions. A monitoring and evaluation plan should be designed to be both cost effective and comprehensive. The process of setting and assessing performance metrics requires that the ecological and socio-economic objectives of the spatial management plan must be clearly stated up front for management actions to reflect those objectives accurately. To evaluate the effectiveness of a MSP plan, a range of ecological, socio-economic and institutional indicators need to be developed and monitored.     

Modelling short-term effects of ozone on morbidity: an application to the city of Milano,Italy, 1995–2003

In this paper, we explore a range of concerns that arise in measuring short-term effects of ozone on health. In particular, we tackle the problem of measuring exposure using alternative daily measures of ozone derived from hourly concentrations. We adopt the exposure paradigm of Chiogna and Bellini (Environmetrics 13:55–69, 2002) extending it to ozone concentrations, and we compare its performances with respect to traditional exposure measures by exploiting model selection. To investigate the stability of model selection, we then apply the idea of bootstrapping the modelling process.     

Effects of salinity on multiplication and transmission of an intertidal trematode parasite

Salinity levels vary spatially in coastal areas, depending on proximity to freshwater sources, and may also be slowly decreasing as a result of anthropogenic climatic changes. The impact of salinity on host–parasite interactions is potentially a key regulator of transmission processes in intertidal areas, where trematodes are extremely common parasites of invertebrates and vertebrates. We investigated experimentally the effects of long-term exposure to decreased salinity levels on output of infective stages (cercariae) and their transmission success in the trematode Philophthalmus sp. This parasite uses the snail Zeacumantus subcarinatus as intermediate host, in which it asexually produces cercariae. After leaving the snail, cercariae encyst externally on hard substrates to await accidental ingestion by shorebirds, which serve as definitive hosts. We found that at reduced salinities (25 or 30 psu), the cercarial output of the parasite was lower, the time taken by cercariae to encyst was longer, fewer cercariae successfully encysted and encysted parasites had lower long-term survival than at normal seawater salinity (35 psu). The strong effect of salinity on the replication and transmission of this parasite suggests that there may be sources and sinks of transmission to birds along coastal areas, depending on local salinity conditions. Also, unless it evolves to adapt to changing conditions, the predicted reduction in salinity as a consequence of climate change may have negative impact on the parasite’s abundance.