Accounting for Uncertainty in Risk Assessment: Case Study of Hector's Dolphin Mortality due to Gillnet Entanglement

Abstract: Uncertainties about biological data and human effects often delay decisions on management of endangered species. Some decision makers argue that uncertainty about the risk posed to a species should lead to precautionary decisions, whereas others argue for delaying protective measures until there is strong evidence that a human activity is having a serious effect on the species. We have developed a method that incorporates uncertainty into the estimate of risk so that delays in action can be reduced or eliminated. We illustrate our method with an actual situation of a deadlock over how to manage Hector's dolphin ( Cephalorhychus hectori ). The management question is whether sufficient risk is posed to the dolphins by mortalities in gillnets to warrant regulating the fisheries. In our quantitative risk assessment, we use a population model that incorporates both demographic ( between-individual) and environmental ( between-year) stochasticity. We incorporate uncertainty in estimates of model parameters by repeatedly running the model for different combinations of survival and reproductive rates. Each value is selected at random from a probability distribution that represents the uncertainty in estimating that parameter. Before drawing conclusions, we perform sensitivity analyses to see whether model assumptions alter conclusions and to recommend priorities for future research. In this example, uncertainty did not alter the conclusion that there is a high risk of population decline if current levels of gillnet mortality continue. Sensitivity analyses revealed this to be a robust conclusion. Thus, our analysis removes uncertainty in the scientific data as an excuse for inaction.     

An Evaluation of Restoration Efforts in Fishless Lakes Stocked with Exotic Trout

Abstract: Detrimental effects of introduced fishes on native amphibian populations have prompted removal of introduced cutthroat ( Oncorhynchus clarki ), rainbow ( Oncorhynchus mykiss ), and brook trout (  Salvelinus fontinalis ) from naturally fishless lakes at Mt. Rainier National Park, Washington ( U.S.A.). Using paleolimnological indicators (diatoms, invertebrates, and sediment characteristics) in eight 480-year-old sediment cores from eight lakes, we (1) derived estimates of baseline environmental conditions and natural variation, (2) assessed the effects of stocking naturally fishless lakes, and (3) determined whether lakes returned to predisturbance conditions after fish removal (restoration). Diatom floras were relatively stable between 315 and 90 years before present in all lakes; we used this time period to define lake-specific "baseline" conditions. Dissimilarity analyses of diatoms revealed sustained, dramatic changes in diatom floras that occurred approximately 80 years ago (when fish were introduced) in four of five stocked lakes, whereas the diatom floras in two unstocked lakes had not changed significantly in the last 315 years. Diatoms were not preserved in an eighth lake. State changes also occurred in two lakes over 200 years before European settlement of the Pacific Northwest. Preserved invertebrate densities fluctuated dramatically over time in all cores, providing a poor reference for assessing the effects of fishes. Nevertheless, fish-invertebrate interactions have been demonstrated in other paleolimnological studies and may be useful for lower-elevation or more productive lakes. Because diatom communities have not returned to predisturbance assemblages in restored lakes, even 20–30 years after fish removal, we conclude that Mt. Rainier lakes were not successfully restored by the removal of fishes.     

Utility of North Atlantic Right Whale Museum Specimens for Assessing Changes in Genetic Diversity

Abstract: We examined six historical specimens of the endangered North Atlantic right whale ( Eubalaena glacialis ) using DNA isolated from documented baleen plates from the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries. Sequences from the mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) control region from these samples were compared with those from a near-exhaustive survey (269 of approximately 320 individuals) of the remaining right whales in the western North Atlantic Ocean. Our results suggest that there has been only relatively modest change in maternal lineage diversity over the past century in the North Atlantic right whale population. Any significant reduction in genetic variation in the species most likely occurred prior to the late nineteenth century. One historical specimen was from the last documented female capable of propagating one of the maternal lineages in the population today; no females in the existing population have been found to carry this mtDNA haplotype. Analysis of the only specimens from the eastern North Atlantic right whale population ever to be examined revealed that eastern and western North Atlantic right whales may not have been genetically differentiated populations. Loss of gene diversity experienced by North Atlantic right whales over the last century has been modest, and the six decades of protection have been successful in maintaining much of the maternal lineage diversity that was present in the late nineteenth century.     

Demographic Forecasting in Koala Conservation

Abstract: The koala currently needs conservation intervention. There is clear evidence of decline in many populations, but the existence of other stable or expanding populations offers the possibility of a variety of creative solutions to their conservation problems. The 1998 National Koala Conservation Strategy emphasizes the need to obtain demographic information and to use this information to assess management options for koalas. We need accurate diagnoses of the status of koala populations and forecasts of their demographic future with and without particular management actions. In a qualitative fashion, this process has been undertaken many times on a local and national scale. Quantitative demographic forecasting tools are increasingly available, and koala management could benefit from their application both at the scale of individual populations and more broadly. There is already a considerable body of suitable data on the dispersal, effects of normal and catastrophic environmental variation on reproduction and survival, and on the effects of habitat change. Demographic forecasting, however, is hampered because the full suite of information is rarely available from a single population. In two Queensland populations, retrospective population viability analyses provided forecasts that were in agreement with observed population trends. Work is needed to determine whether data from one population can be applied to other populations. Models can then be developed to make projections at a multipopulation level on the basis of local population dynamics and dispersal. Certain koala populations, because of their long history of study, offer the opportunity to test demographic models retrospectively. These tests will not only aid in fine-tuning the models for koala biology and data but will also assist with the more general process of validating the models.     

Factors Affecting Population Assessments of Desert Tortoises

Abstract: Desert tortoises have been a subject of controversy since their listing as threatened in 1990. With a wide geographic range and more living individuals than any other listed land animal, biologists have needed to detect population trends against a "noisy" background of strong annual changes. We obtained annual population estimates of desert tortoises over 6 consecutive years at a 2.59-km² plot in Joshua Tree National Park, California. Our estimates, based on weekly spring surveys, varied substantially, particularly between wet and dry years. Concurrently, we followed 10 radiotagged animals for 3 years to corroborate the surveys. Population density was determined separately for each year and for all years combined. Our best population estimate was an average of 67 adult tortoises, three times more than the density reported in a 1978 survey of the same site. Annual mortality was low ( <10%), and the animals showed extreme site fidelity. Apparent changes in population size were most strongly related to the animals' varying susceptibility to capture. In dry years, home ranges decreased, captures decreased, and effort required to find each tortoise nearly doubled. Our data confirm that tortoises are likely to be undercounted during dry years and call into question earlier studies conducted during droughts.     

Chemical composition of the slippery epicuticular wax blooms on Macaranga (Euphorbiaceae) ant-plants

Summary. The stems of many Macaranga ant-plants (Euphorbiaceae) are covered by epicuticular wax crystals rendering the surface very slippery for most insects. These wax blooms act as selective barriers protecting the symbiotic ant partners, which are specialized “wax-runners”, against the competition of other ants. Glaucous stems occur almost exclusively among the ant-plants of the genus Macaranga (). We analyzed the cuticular lipids of 16 Macaranga species by GC-MS and investigated the wax crystal morphology using SEM. Presence of crystalline wax blooms was strongly correlated with high concentrations (52%–88%) of triterpenoids. In contrast epicuticular waxes of glossy Macaranga surfaces contained only 0% to 36% of these dominant components. Therefore we conclude that triterpenoids are responsible for the formation of the thread-like Macaranga wax crystals. In all Macaranga ant-plants investigated, the principal components were epitaraxerol and taraxerone accompanied by smaller portions of taraxerol, β-amyrin and friedelin. Only in the case of the non-myrmecophytic M. tanarius did β-amyrin predominate. Moreover, we found that only in M. tanarius, the dense wax crystal lacework is torn into large mosaic-like pieces in the course of secondary stem diameter growth. Both chemical and macroscopic differences may contribute to a reduced slipperiness of M. tanarius stems and appear to be functionally important. The distribution of wax crystals and their composition amongst different sections of the genus suggests that glaucousness is a polyphyletic character within Macaranga. Received 7 October 1999; accepted 3 December 1999     

Poisoned plusiines: toxicity of milkweed latex and cardenolides to some generalist caterpillars

Summary. Larvae of Trichoplusia ni Hübner (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) that ingested latex from Asclepias curassavica L. (Asclepiadaceae) often regurgitated and convulsed with spasms before becoming immobile and unresponsive. Some larvae required over a day to recover sufficiently to feed. Latices from four other plant species in three families were all deterrent, but none caused detectable poisoning. The toxicity of A. curassavica latex was evidently due to cardenolides because pure cardenolides had similar effects when ingested by T. ni. Other species of noctuid caterpillars (Rachiplusia ou Guenée, Anagrapha falcifera Kirby, and Autographa precationis Guenée) sometimes also suffered spasms and temporary immobility when fed A. curassavica latex. A more distantly related noctuid, Spodoptera ornithogalli, was deterred by the latex, but showed no overt physiological responses at the dosage tested. T. ni larvae failed to develop on intact leaves of A. curassavica, on leaves with latex canals deactivated by midrib severance, and on excised leaves. Similarly, larvae reared on excised A. syriaca L. leaves to the final instar died when transferred to A. curassavica leaves with either intact or severed midribs. The final instar larvae sometimes suffered from spasms and immobility even when confined on leaves with depressurized canal systems. Evidently, cardenolides stored outside the latex system suffice to poison larvae. We conclude that cardenolides in A. curassavica have potent physiological effects on some generalist caterpillars and that the presence of these compounds both inside and outside laticifers effectively protects the plant. Received 30 June 1999; accepted 18 October 1999     

An experiment on the ability of free-ranging turkey vultures (Cathartes aura) to locate carrion by chemical cues

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