Distribution patterns of plants explained by human movement behaviour

Distribution patterns of plants are affected by human activities such as creation, destruction or modification of habitats. However, another important question is to what extent humans shape plant distributions by acting as dispersal vectors. In order to answer this question we developed a simulation model for the spread of plant species between human settlements. This was done on the basis of extensive sociological and ecological data on a regional scale. With regard to the sociological data, human movement behaviour defined the amount of exchange between the settlements. Gardening types represented the potential habitat in our model. The ecological data was derived from a vegetation survey carried out in 2003, which was a repeat of a survey between 1974 and 1981 along the same transects. From these surveys, we studied the distributions of 13 species in 67 settlements. In our model, the earlier survey provided the data for the initial distribution. The simulated pattern was consequently compared with the distribution pattern in 2003. In the model, dispersal kernels based on patterns of human movement between settlements led to a better match with the distribution patterns than a null model simulating pure distance dependent dispersal for all species. This was statistically significant for seven of the thirteen species. A striking result was that alien species seem to benefit more from human dispersal than native species. We emphasize the importance of the sociological data on human movement behaviour in parameterizing our regional scale model. This study provides quantitative evidence on the impact of human movement behaviour on the distribution of plant species in suburban areas.     

土壤中嗪草酮迁移和降解的研究

 通过两季马铃薯大田试验，研究了嗪草酮在灌溉沙壤土中的消失和移动情况。结果表明，表层土壤中，嗪草酮施用后最初7～15天内其含量急剧降低，此后随时间推移降低幅度平缓，1993年和1994年试验结束时的残留量分别为5.9μg/kg和2.3μg/kg。两年共采集的379个土样（分布在15～75cm各土层）中只有5个检测到有嗪草酮。1994年大田135cm土层处的水样中，嗪草酮的检测率高达66％，检测浓度范围为0.06～15.85μg/kg，平均浓度为1.94μg/kg。相比较，嗪草酮在大田试验中的消失速率远大于实验室控制条件下的降解速率。     

Role of the floodplain lakes in the methylmercury distribution and exchanges with the Amazon River, Brazil

Seasonal variability of dissolved and particulate methylmercury(F-MeHg, P-MeHg) concentrations was studied in the waters of the Amazon River and its associated Curuai floodplain during hydrological year 2005–2006, to understand the MeHg exchanges between these aquatic systems. In the oxic white water lakes, with neutral pH, high F-MeHg and P-MeHg concentrations were measured during the rising water stage(0.70 ± 0.37 pmol/L, n = 26) and flood peak(14.19 ± 9.32 pmol/g, n = 7) respectively, when the Amazon River water discharge into the lakes was at its maximum. The lowest mean values were reported during the dry season(0.18 ± 0.07 pmol/L F-MeHg, n = 10 and 1.35 ± 1.24 pmol/g P-MeHg, n = 8), when water and suspended sediments were outflowing from the lakes into the River. In these lakes,the MeHg concentrations were associated to the aluminium and organic carbon/nitrogen changes. In the black water lakes, with acidic pH and reducing conditions, elevated MeHg concentrations were recorded(0.58 ± 0.32 pmol/L F-MeHg, n = 16 and 19.82 ± 15.13 pmol/g PMeHg, n = 6), and correlated with the organic carbon and manganese concentrations. Elevated values of MeHg partition coefficient(4.87 Kd 5.08 log(L/kg) indicate that MeHg is mainly transported associated with the particulate phase. The P-MeHg enrichment detected in all lakes suggests autochthonous MeHg inputs from the sediments into the water column. The MeHg mass balance showed that the Curuai floodplain is not the source of P-MeHg for the Amazon River.     

Framing of Geoengineering Affects Support for Climate Change Mitigation

The growing recognition that climate change mitigation alone will be inadequate has led scientists and policymakers to discuss climate geoengineering. An experiment with a US sample found, contrary to previous research, that reading about geoengineering did not reduce conservatives’ skepticism about the existence of anthropogenic climate change. Moreover, depending on how it is framed, geoengineering can reduce support for mitigation among both conservatives and non-conservatives. When geoengineering is framed as a major solution, people worry less about climate change, leading to reduced mitigation support. When framed as disastrous, people perceived geoengineering as riskier, also leading to a decrease in mitigation support. A more moderate framing of geoengineering as a partial solution is less susceptible to moral hazard effects. Overall, results suggest that geoengineering will not lessen political polarization over anthropogenic climate change, and could undercut support for mitigation efforts. Instead, framing geoengineering as a small piece to solving a big puzzle seems to be the best strategy to weaken this potential moral hazard.     

Empirical Trials of Plant Field Guides

We designed 3 image‐based field guides to tropical forest plant species in Ghana, Grenada, and Cameroon and tested them with 1095 local residents and 20 botanists in the United Kingdom. We compared users’ identification accuracy with different image formats, including drawings, specimen photos, living plant photos, and paintings. We compared users’ accuracy with the guides to their accuracy with only their prior knowledge of the flora. We asked respondents to score each format for usability, beauty, and how much they would pay for it. Prior knowledge of plant names was generally low (<22%). With a few exceptions, identification accuracy did not differ significantly among image formats. In Cameroon, users identifying sterile Cola species achieved 46–56% accuracy across formats; identification was most accurate with living plant photos. Botanists in the United Kingdom accurately identified 82–93% of the same Cameroonian species; identification was most accurate with specimens. In Grenada, users accurately identified 74–82% of plants; drawings yielded significantly less accurate identifications than paintings and photos of living plants. In Ghana, users accurately identified 85% of plants. Digital color photos of living plants ranked high for beauty, usability, and what users would pay. Black and white drawings ranked low. Our results show the potential and limitations of the use of field guides and nonspecialists to identify plants, for example, in conservation applications. We recommend authors of plant field guides use the cheapest or easiest illustration format because image type had limited bearing on accuracy; match the type of illustration to the most likely use of the guide for slight improvements in accuracy; avoid black and white formats unless the audience is experienced at interpreting illustrations or keeping costs low is imperative; discourage false‐positive identifications, which were common; and encourage users to ask an expert or use a herbarium for groups that are difficult to identify. Pruebas Empíricas de Guías de Campo de Plantas Hawthorne, Cable & Marshall     

Two Hundred Years of Local Avian Extinctions in Eastern Amazonia

Local, regional, and global extinctions caused by habitat loss, degradation, and fragmentation have been widely reported for the tropics. The patterns and drivers of this loss of species are now increasingly well known in Amazonia, but there remains a significant gap in understanding of long‐term trends in species persistence and extinction in anthropogenic landscapes. Such a historical perspective is critical for understanding the status and trends of extant biodiversity as well as for identifying priorities to halt further losses. Using extensive historical data sets of specimen records and results of contemporary surveys, we searched for evidence of local extinctions of a terra firma rainforest avifauna over 200 years in a 2500 km² eastern Amazonian region around the Brazilian city of Belém. This region has the longest history of ornithological fieldwork in the entire Amazon basin and lies in the highly threatened Belém Centre of Endemism. We also compared our historically inferred extinction events with extensive data on species occurrences in a sample of catchments in a nearby municipality (Paragominas) that encompass a gradient of past forest loss. We found evidence for the possible extinction of 47 species (14% of the regional species pool) that were unreported from 1980 to 2013 (80% last recorded between 1900 and 1980). Seventeen species appear on the International Union for Conservation of Nature Red List, and many of these are large‐bodied. The species lost from the region immediately around Belém are similar to those which are currently restricted to well‐forested catchments in Paragominas. Although we anticipate the future rediscovery or recolonization of some species inferred to be extinct by our calculations, we also expect that there are likely to be additional local extinctions, not reported here, given the ongoing loss and degradation of remaining areas of native vegetation across eastern Amazonia. Doscientos Años de Extinciones Locales de Aves en la Amazonia Oriental     

Developing Metapopulation Connectivity Criteria from Genetic and Habitat Data to Recover the Endangered Mexican Wolf

Restoring connectivity between fragmented populations is an important tool for alleviating genetic threats to endangered species. Yet recovery plans typically lack quantitative criteria for ensuring such population connectivity. We demonstrate how models that integrate habitat, genetic, and demographic data can be used to develop connectivity criteria for the endangered Mexican wolf (Canis lupus baileyi), which is currently being restored to the wild from a captive population descended from 7 founders. We used population viability analysis that incorporated pedigree data to evaluate the relation between connectivity and persistence for a restored Mexican wolf metapopulation of 3 populations of equal size. Decreasing dispersal rates greatly increased extinction risk for small populations (<150–200), especially as dispersal rates dropped below 0.5 genetically effective migrants per generation. We compared observed migration rates in the Northern Rocky Mountains (NRM) wolf metapopulation to 2 habitat‐based effective distance metrics, least‐cost and resistance distance. We then used effective distance between potential primary core populations in a restored Mexican wolf metapopulation to evaluate potential dispersal rates. Although potential connectivity was lower in the Mexican wolf versus the NRM wolf metapopulation, a connectivity rate of >0.5 genetically effective migrants per generation may be achievable via natural dispersal under current landscape conditions. When sufficient data are available, these methods allow planners to move beyond general aspirational connectivity goals or rules of thumb to develop objective and measurable connectivity criteria that more effectively support species recovery. The shift from simple connectivity rules of thumb to species‐specific analyses parallels the previous shift from general minimum‐viable‐population thresholds to detailed viability modeling in endangered species recovery planning. Desarrollo de Criterios de Conectividad Metapoblacional a Partir de Datos Genéticos y de Hábitat para Recuperar al Lobo Mexicano en Peligro de Extinción     

Using empirical models of species colonization under multiple threatening processes to identify complementary threat‐mitigation strategies

Approaches to prioritize conservation actions are gaining popularity. However, limited empirical evidence exists on which species might benefit most from threat mitigation and on what combination of threats, if mitigated simultaneously, would result in the best outcomes for biodiversity. We devised a way to prioritize threat mitigation at a regional scale with empirical evidence based on predicted changes to population dynamics—information that is lacking in most threat‐management prioritization frameworks that rely on expert elicitation. We used dynamic occupancy models to investigate the effects of multiple threats (tree cover, grazing, and presence of an hyperaggressive competitor, the Noisy Miner (Manorina melanocephala) on bird‐population dynamics in an endangered woodland community in southeastern Australia. The 3 threatening processes had different effects on different species. We used predicted patch‐colonization probabilities to estimate the benefit to each species of removing one or more threats. We then determined the complementary set of threat‐mitigation strategies that maximized colonization of all species while ensuring that redundant actions with little benefit were avoided. The single action that resulted in the highest colonization was increasing tree cover, which increased patch colonization by 5% and 11% on average across all species and for declining species, respectively. Combining Noisy Miner control with increasing tree cover increased species colonization by 10% and 19% on average for all species and for declining species respectively, and was a higher priority than changing grazing regimes. Guidance for prioritizing threat mitigation is critical in the face of cumulative threatening processes. By incorporating population dynamics in prioritization of threat management, our approach helps ensure funding is not wasted on ineffective management programs that target the wrong threats or species.