Use of Energy Scenarios in Addressing the CO2 Question

A reference scenario for CO₂ emissions was developed using a model of world energy supply and demand. In the reference scenario, world GNP and world energy demand increase at average rates of 2.1 percent per year and 1.5 percent per year, respectively during the period 1975-2100. The corresponding annual CO₂ emissions rise to a maximum of 16 gigatons of carbon around 2050 and then decline as a result of a transition to nonfossil fuel energy systems. A modified scenario for high CO₂ emissions was obtained by assuming an abundant supply of low cost coal, thus eliminating the transition. A low case was developed in which the low cost of alternative energy (i.e., solar, nuclear) induces an earlier shift away from fossil fuels.

Annual emissions of the three scenarios were used as input to a global carbon cycle model and the CO₂ buildup in the atmosphere during the period 1980-2100 was determined by the model. All three scenarios showed continuous rises in atmospheric CO₂ concentration. The reference scenario reached 775 ppm by 2100. The high CO₂ case resulted in concentrations of over 1040 ppm, and for the low case the 2100 concentration was just under 700 ppm. If the climate theory is correct, even 700 ppm is sufficient to give significant climate warming, but by experiencing the change gradually over a century, adaptation may not be painful. An early transition to nonfossil fuel supplies makes the problem less severe but does not eliminate it.     

Temporal and geographical genetic variation in the amphipod Melita plumulosa (Crustacea: Melitidae): Link of a localized change in haplotype frequencies to a chemical spill

Anthropogenic effects such as contamination affect the genetic structure of populations. This study examined the temporal and geographical patterns of genetic diversity among populations of the benthic crustacean amphipod Melita plumulosa in the Parramatta River (Sydney, Australia), following an industrial chemical spill. The spill of an acrylate/methacrylate co-polymer in naphtha solvent occurred in July 2006. M. plumulosa were sampled temporally between December 2006 and November 2009 and spatially in November 2009. Genetic variation was examined at the mitochondrial cytochrome c oxidase subunit I locus. Notably, nucleotide diversity was low and Tajima’s D was significantly negative amongst amphipods collected immediately downstream from the spill for 10 months. We hypothesize that the spill had a significant localized effect on the genetic diversity of M. plumulosa. Alternate explanations include an alternate and unknown toxicant or a localized sampling bias. Future proposed studies will dissect these alternatives.     

Charge-based fractionation of oxyanion-forming metals and metalloids leached from recycled concrete aggregates of different degrees of carbonation: A comparison of laboratory and field leaching tests

The release and charge-based fractionation of As, Cr, Mo, Sb, Se and V were evaluated in leachates generated from recycled concrete aggregates (RCA) in a laboratory and at a field site. The leachates, covering the pH range 8.4-12.6, were generated from non-carbonated, and artificially and naturally carbonated crushed concrete samples. Comparison between the release of the elements from the non-carbonated and carbonated samples indicated higher solubility of the elements from the latter. The laboratory leaching tests also revealed that the solubility of the elements is low at the “natural pH” of the non-carbonated materials and show enhancement when the pH is decreased. The charge-based fractionation of the elements was determined by ion-exchange solid phase extraction (SPE); it was found that all the target elements predominantly existed as anions in both the laboratory and field leachates. The high fraction of the anionic species of the elements in the leachates from the carbonated RCA materials verified the enhanced solubility of the oxyanionic species of the elements as a result of carbonation. The concentrations of the elements in the leachates and SPE effluents were determined by inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (ICP-MS).     

Future landfill emissions and the effect of final cover installation--a case study

Municipal solid waste (MSW) landfills are potential long-term sources of emissions. Hence, they need to be managed after closure until they do not pose a threat to humans or the environment. The case study on the Breitenau MSW landfill was performed to evaluate future emission levels for this site and to illustrate the effect of final cover installation with respect to long-term environmental risks. The methodology was based on a comprehensive assessment of the state of the landfill and included analysis of monitoring data, investigations of landfilled waste, and an evaluation of containment systems. A model to estimate future emission levels was established and site-specific predictions of leachate emissions were presented based on scenario analysis. The results are used to evaluate the future pollution potential of the landfill and to compare different aftercare concepts in view of long-term emissions. As some leachable substances became available for water flow during cover construction due to a change in the water flow pattern of the waste, a substantial increase in leachate concentrations could be observed at the site (e.g. concentrations of chloride increased from 200 to 800 mg/l and of ammonia-nitrogen from 140 to about 500 mg/l). A period of intensive flushing before the final cover installation could have reduced the amount of leachable substances within the landfill body and rapidly decreased the leachate concentrations to 11 mg Cl/l and 79 mg NH₄-N/l within 50 years. Contrarily, the minimization of water infiltration is associated with leachate concentrations in a high range for centuries (above 400 mg Cl/l and 200 mg NH₄-N/l) with low concomitant annual emission loads (below 12 kg/year of Cl or 9 kg/year of NH₄-N, respectively). However, an expected gradual decrease of barrier efficiency over time would be associated with higher emission loads of 50 kg of chloride and 30 kg of ammonia-nitrogen at the maximum, but a faster decrease of leachate concentration levels.     

Model projected heat extremes and air pollution in the eastern Mediterranean and Middle East in the twenty-first century

The eastern Mediterranean and Middle East, a region with diverse socioeconomic and cultural identities, is exposed to strong climatic gradients between its temperate north and arid south. Model projections of the twenty-first century indicate increasing hot weather extremes and decreasing rainfall. We present model results, which suggest that across the Balkan Peninsula and Turkey climate change is particularly rapid, and especially summer temperatures are expected to increase strongly. Temperature rise can be amplified by the depletion of soil moisture, which limits evaporative cooling, prompted by the waning of large-scale weather systems that generate rain. Very hot summers that occurred only rarely in the recent past are projected to become common by the middle and the end of the century. Throughout the region, the annual number of heat wave days may increase drastically. Furthermore, conditions in the region are conducive for photochemical air pollution. Our model projections suggest strongly increasing ozone formation, a confounding health risk factor particularly in urban areas. This adds to the high concentrations of aerosol particles from natural (desert dust) and anthropogenic sources. The heat extremes may have strong impacts, especially in the Middle East where environmental stresses are plentiful.     

Adaptation options for marine industries and coastal communities using community structure and dynamics

Identifying effective adaptation strategies for coastal communities dependent on marine resources and impacted by climate change can be difficult due to the dynamic nature of marine ecosystems. The task is more difficult if current and predicted shifts in social and economic trends are considered. Information about social and economic change is often limited to qualitative data. A combination of qualitative and quantitative models provide the flexibility to allow the assessment of current and future ecological and socio-economic risks and can provide information on alternative adaptations. Here, we demonstrate how stakeholder input, qualitative models and Bayesian belief networks (BBNs) can provide semi-quantitative predictions, including uncertainty levels, for the assessment of climate and non-climate-driven change in a case study community. Issues are identified, including the need to increase the capacity of the community to cope with change. Adaptation strategies are identified that alter positive feedback cycles contributing to a continued decline in population, local employment and retail spending. For instance, the diversification of employment opportunities and the attraction of new residents of different ages would be beneficial in preventing further population decline. Some impacts of climate change can be combated through recreational bag or size limits and monitoring of popular range-shifted species that are currently unmanaged, to reduce the potential for excessive removal. Our results also demonstrate that combining BBNs and qualitative models can assist with the effective communication of information between stakeholders and researchers. Furthermore, the combination of techniques provides a dynamic, learning-based, semi-quantitative approach for the assessment of climate and socio-economic impacts and the identification of potential adaptation strategies.     

Interinstrument comparison of remote-sensing devices and a new method for calculating on-road nitrogen oxides emissions and validation of vehicle-specific power

Emissions of nitrogen oxides (NOx) by vehicles in real driving environments are only partially understood. This has been brought to the attention of the world with recent revelations of the cheating of the type of approval tests exposed in the dieselgate scandal. Remote-sensing devices offer investigators an opportunity to directly measure in situ real driving emissions of tens of thousands of vehicles. Remote-sensing NO₂ measurements are not as widely available as would be desirable. The aim of this study is to improve the ability of investigators to estimate the NO₂ emissions and to improve the confidence of the total NOx results calculated from standard remote-sensing device (RSD) measurements. The accuracy of the RSD speed and acceleration module was also validated using state-of-the-art onboard global positioning system (GPS) tracking. Two RSDs used in roadside vehicle emissions surveys were tested side by side under off-carriageway conditions away from transient pollution sources to ascertain the consistency of their measurements. The speed correlation was consistent across the range of measurements at 95% confidence and the acceleration correlation was consistent at 95% confidence intervals for all but the most extreme acceleration cases. VSP was consistent at 95% confidence across all measurements except for those at VSP ≥ 15 kW t^?1, which show a small underestimate. The controlled distribution gas nitric oxide measurements follow a normal distribution with 2σ equal to 18.9% of the mean, compared to 15% observed during factory calibration indicative of additional error introduced into the system. Systematic errors of +84 ppm were observed but within the tolerance of the control gas. Interinstrument correlation was performed, with the relationship between the FEAT and the RSD4600 being linear with a gradient of 0.93 and an R² of 0.85, indicating good correlation. A new method to calculate NOx emissions using fractional NO₂ combined with NO measurements made by the RSD4600 was constructed, validated, and shown to be more accurate than previous methods.

Implications: Synchronized remote-sensing measurements of NO were taken using two different remote-sensing devices in an off-road study. It was found that the measurements taken by both instruments were well correlated. Fractional NO₂ measurements from a prior study, measurable on only one device, were used to create new NO_x emission factors for the device that could not be measured by the second device. These estimates were validated against direct measurement of total NO_x emission factors and shown to be an improvement on previous methodologies. Validation of vehicle-specific power was performed with good correlation observed.