An Exploration of Scenarios to Support Sustainable Land Management Using Integrated Environmental Socio-economic Models

Scenario analysis constitutes a valuable deployment method for scientific models to inform environmental decision-making, particularly for evaluating land degradation mitigation options, which are rarely based on formal analysis. In this paper we demonstrate such an assessment using the PESERA–DESMICE modeling framework with various scenarios for 13 global land degradation hotspots. Starting with an initial assessment representing land degradation and productivity under current conditions, options to combat instances of land degradation are explored by determining: (1) Which technologies are most biophysically appropriate and most financially viable in which locations; we term these the “technology scenarios”; (2) how policy instruments such as subsidies influence upfront investment requirements and financial viability and how they lead to reduced levels of land degradation; we term these the “policy scenarios”; and (3) how technology adoption affects development issues such as food production and livelihoods; we term these the “global scenarios”. Technology scenarios help choose the best technology for a given area in biophysical and financial terms, thereby outlining where policy support may be needed to promote adoption; policy scenarios assess whether a policy alternative leads to a greater extent of technology adoption; while global scenarios demonstrate how implementing technologies may serve wider sustainable development goals. Scenarios are applied to assess spatial variation within study sites as well as to compare across different sites. Our results show significant scope to combat land degradation and raise agricultural productivity at moderate cost. We conclude that scenario assessment can provide informative input to multi-level land management decision-making processes.     

Effects of Livestock Grazing and Well Construction on Prairie Vegetation Structure Surrounding Shallow Natural Gas Wells

Short and sparse vegetation near shallow gas wells has generally been attributed to residual effects from well construction, but other mechanisms might also explain these trends. We evaluated effects of distance to shallow gas wells on vegetation and bare ground in mixed-grass prairies in southern Alberta, Canada, from 2010 to 2011. We then tested three hypotheses to explain why we found shorter vegetation and more bare ground near wells, using cattle fecal pat transects from 2012, and our vegetation quadrats. We evaluated whether empirical evidence suggested that observed patterns were driven by (1) higher abundance of crested wheatgrass (Agropyron cristatum) near wells, (2) residual effects of well construction, or (3) attraction of livestock to wells. Crested wheatgrass occurrence was higher near wells, but this did not explain effects of wells on vegetation structure. Correlations between distance to wells and litter depth were the highest near newer wells, providing support for the construction hypothesis. However, effects of distance to wells on other vegetation metrics did not decline as time since well construction increased, suggesting that other mechanisms explained observed edge effects. Cattle abundance was substantially higher near wells, and this effect corresponded with changes in habitat structure. Our results suggest that both residual effects of well construction and cattle behavior may explain effects of shallow gas wells on habitat structure in mixed-grass prairies, and thus, to be effective, mitigation strategies must address both mechanisms.     

What Can Funders Do to Better Link Science with Decisions? Case Studies of Coastal Communities and Climate Change

Many reports and studies have noted that a significant portion of problem-oriented coastal science does not actually link to decisions. Here, three competitively funded project case studies are studied to determine what funders can and should do to better link science with decisions. The qualitative analysis used for this study indicates that the studied program was seen as being unusually attentive to the issue of linking science to decisions, as opposed to simply generating new knowledge. Nevertheless, much of the data indicate that funders can and should do more. Three ideas figured most prominently in the qualitative data: (1) funders should do more to ensure that the problem itself is defined more thoroughly with people who are envisioned as potential users of the science; (2) funders need to allocate more resources and attention to communicating effectively (with users) throughout the project; and (3) funders need to demand more engagement of users throughout the project. These findings have important implications for how funders review and support science, especially when competitive processes are used. Most importantly, funders should adjust what kind of science they ask for. Secondly, funders need to change who is involved in the review process. Currently, review processes focus on knowledge generation, which means that the reviewers themselves have expertise in that area. Instead, review panels should be balanced between those who focus on knowledge generation and those who focus on linking knowledge to decisions; this is a separate but critical discipline currently left out of the review process.     

Convergent and Contingent Community Responses to Grass Source and Dominance During Prairie Restoration Across a Longitudinal Gradient

Restoring prairie on formerly cultivated land begins by selecting propagule seed sources and the diversity of species to reintroduce. This study examined the effects of dominant grass propagule source (cultivar vs. non-cultivar) and sown propagule diversity (grass:forb sowing ratio) on plant community structure. Two field experiments were established in Kansas and Illinois consisting of identical split plot designs. Dominant grass source was assigned as the whole-plot factor, and sown dominance of grasses (five levels of seeded grass dominance) as the subplot factor. Species density, cover, and diversity were quantified for 5 years. The effect of dominant grass source on the cover of focal grasses, sown species, and volunteer species was contingent upon location, with variation between dominant grass sources observed exclusively in Kansas. Species density and diversity showed regionally convergent patterns in response to dominant grass source. Contrary to our hypotheses, total species density and diversity were not lower in the presence of grass cultivars, the grass source we had predicted would be more competitive. Sown grass dominance effects on the cover of the focal grass species were contingent upon location resulting from establishment corresponding better to the assigned treatments in Illinois. All other cover groups showed regionally convergent patterns, with lower cover of volunteers and higher cover of sown forbs, diversity, and species density in the lowest sown grass dominance treatment in both sites. Thus, decisions regarding the diversity of propagules to reintroduce had more consequence for plant community structure than cultivar or non-cultivar source of dominant grasses.     

Riverine Threat Indices to Assess Watershed Condition and Identify Primary Management Capacity of Agriculture Natural Resource Management Agencies

Managers can improve conservation of lotic systems over large geographies if they have tools to assess total watershed conditions for individual stream segments and can identify segments where conservation practices are most likely to be successful (i.e., primary management capacity). The goal of this research was to develop a suite of threat indices to help agriculture resource management agencies select and prioritize watersheds across Missouri River basin in which to implement agriculture conservation practices. We quantified watershed percentages or densities of 17 threat metrics that represent major sources of ecological stress to stream communities into five threat indices: agriculture, urban, point-source pollution, infrastructure, and all non-agriculture threats. We identified stream segments where agriculture management agencies had primary management capacity. Agriculture watershed condition differed by ecoregion and considerable local variation was observed among stream segments in ecoregions of high agriculture threats. Stream segments with high non-agriculture threats were most concentrated near urban areas, but showed high local variability. 60 % of stream segments in the basin were classified as under U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS) primary management capacity and most segments were in regions of high agricultural threats. NRCS primary management capacity was locally variable which highlights the importance of assessing total watershed condition for multiple threats. Our threat indices can be used by agriculture resource management agencies to prioritize conservation actions and investments based on: (a) relative severity of all threats, (b) relative severity of agricultural threats, and (c) and degree of primary management capacity.     

Pro-Environmental Beach Driving is Uncommon and Ineffective in Reducing Disturbance to Beach-Dwelling Birds

Vehicles on beaches cause numerous deleterious effects to coastal wildlife. These impacts may, hypothetically, be lessened if drivers act to reduce disturbance. Since it is unknown to what extent such behavior occurs, and whether it can reduce disturbance, we quantified the behavior of drivers who encountered birds on open-coast, sandy beaches in eastern Australia and the consequent bird responses. Drivers of commercial tourist buses never slowed or altered course (“evaded birds”) to avoid disturbing birds; conversely, 34 % of drivers of private cars did evade birds. Drivers of vehicles with fishing rod holders tended (P = 0.09) to evade birds more frequently than non-fishing vehicles. Evasion, when it occurred, was modest, and did not significantly decrease the intensity of bird response or the probability of escapes on the wing. Voluntary behavioral adjustments to alleviate impacts on wildlife may be unworkable, suggesting that other solutions (e.g., beach closures) might be the only effective and feasible way to reduce disturbance to birds on ocean beaches.     

Behaviour of different lichen species as biomonitors of air pollution by PAHs in natural ecosystems

Six different species of lichens (Parmelia sulcata Tayl., Evernia prunastri (L.) Ach., Ramalina farinacea, Pseudevernia furfuracea (L.) Zopf., Usnea sp. and Lobaria pulmonaria (Schreb.) Hoffm.) were collected in two mountain valleys in Central Pyrenees: the Aspe and Aragon valleys. Two multivariate techniques have been applied with different purposes, ANOVA and Discriminant Analysis (DA), to evaluate the data. The PAHs spatial distribution was studied in the three more abundant and widespread species in the area: P. sulcata, E. prunastri (L.) Ach. and R. farinacea in terms of total PAHs, PAHs related to the combustion processes and toxicity. Different behaviour of each lichen species to trap PAHs was found, being P. sulcata the best one to monitor the most persistent PAHs of pyrogenic origin and E. prunastri the most appropriate to provide information about pyrogenic and petrogenic PAHs. Traffic was the most relevant influence in PAHs bioaccumulation in lichen species.