MEAN AREAL PRECIPITATION FOR DAILY HYDROLOGIC MODELING IN MOUNTAINOUS REGIONS1

ABSTRACT: A procedure using detrended kriging has been developed to calculate daily values of mean areal precipitation (MAP) for input to hydrologic models. The important features of this procedure that overcome weaknesses in existing MAP procedures are: (1) specific precipitation-elevation relationships are determined for each time period as opposed to using relationships based on climatological averages, (2) spatial variability is incorporated by estimating precipitation for each grid cell over a watershed, (3) the spatial correlation structure of precipitation is explicitly modeled, and (4) station weights for precipitation estimates are determined objectively and optimally. Detailed cross-validation testing of the procedure was done for the Reynolds Creek research watershed in southwestern Idaho. The procedure is suitable for use in operational streamflow forecasting.     

Migration of pollutants in groundwater. III. Numerical dispersion reduction with cartesian coordinates

The partial differential equation governing the movement of a decomposing pollutant undergoing 2-dimensional flow in a saturated aquifer is examined. The analytical solution of the equation is usually not possible, and use of mesh numerical integration techniques causes excessive numerical dispersion to arise from the advection term. We apply two asymmetrical upwind formulas to approximate the advection term. These markedly reduce numerical dispersion without requiring the use of coordinate systems obtained by conformal mapping. Flow within a right angle and flow toward a sink in an otherwise uniform field are analyzed to illustrate the methods.     

Shapes of simulated fires in discrete fuels

Simulation models are used to examine the possible effects of discrete fuel distributions and of several fire-spread mechanisms on fire shapes. Two postulated fire spread mechanisms —heat accumulation and flame contact—are shown to yield near-ellipses in continuous fuels, but a wide range of shapes in discrete and very patchy fuels. The alternative shapes include ovoids, “tear-drop” (with the ignition point at varying positions on the major axis), and straight lines. Simulated fires in discrete, patchy fuels are less regular in shape than in uniform and continuous fuels and show little or no backburning. The results may explain certain observed differences between wildfire shapes that occur in different environments and at different burning intensities.     

The economics of bauxite and aluminium: Distributed lags and new econometric estimates

Bauxite supply and demand equations for the largest producers and consumers are estimated with 1958–1982 data. In specifications that include industrial activity indexes, substitute prices and energy costs, these regressors improve the fits and are statistically significant. The own price variable, the Koyck-Nerlove lagged dependent variable, or both, become insignificant, or their estimated coefficients are substantially altered, in relation to their values in price-only models, which overestimate the own price impact and the gap between long- and short-term effects. Industrial activity is the main determinant, followed by the other new regressors. The Jamaican response to price is perverse and significant.