Development and Operational Testing of a Super‐Ensemble Artificial Intelligence Flood‐Forecast Model for a Pacific Northwest River

Coastal catchments in British Columbia, Canada, experience a complex mixture of rainfall‐ and snowmelt‐driven contributions to flood events. Few operational flood‐forecast models are available in the region. Here, we integrated a number of proven technologies in a novel way to produce a super‐ensemble forecast system for the Englishman River, a flood‐prone stream on Vancouver Island. This three‐day‐ahead modeling system utilizes up to 42 numerical weather prediction model outputs from the North American Ensemble Forecast System, combined with six artificial neural network‐based streamflow models representing various slightly different system conceptualizations, all of which were trained exclusively on historical high‐flow data. As such, the system combines relatively low model development times and costs with the generation of fully probabilistic forecasts reflecting uncertainty in the simulation of both atmospheric and terrestrial hydrologic dynamics. Results from operational testing by British Columbia's flood forecasting agency during the 2013‐2014 storm season suggest that the prediction system is operationally useful and robust.     

Calibration and Verification of SWMM for Low Impact Development

The Storm Water Management Model was used to simulate runoff and nutrient export from a low impact development (LID) watershed and a watershed using traditional runoff controls. Predictions were compared to observed values. Uncalibrated simulations underpredicted weekly runoff volume and average peak flow rates from the multiple subcatchment LID watershed by over 80%; the single subcatchment traditional watershed had better predictions. Saturated hydraulic conductivity, Manning's n for swales, and initial soil moisture deficit were sensitive parameters. After calibration, prediction of total weekly runoff volume for the LID and traditional watersheds improved to within 12 and 5% of observed values, respectively. For the validation period, predicted total weekly runoff volumes for the LID and traditional watersheds were within 6 and 2% of observed values, respectively. Water quality simulation was less successful, Nash–Sutcliffe coefficients >0.5 for both calibration and validation periods were only achieved for prediction of total nitrogen export from the LID watershed. Simulation of a 100‐year, 24‐h storm resulted in a runoff coefficient of 0.46 for the LID watershed and 0.59 for the traditional watershed. Results suggest either calibration is needed to improve predictions for LID watersheds or expanded look‐up tables for Green–Ampt infiltration parameter values that account for compaction of urban soil and antecedent conditions are needed.     

Sedentary or mobile? Variability in space and depth use of an exploited coral reef fish

Movement of fishes defines the distribution and abundance of populations and occurs on a range of spatial and temporal scales. To successfully parameterise assessments and design management strategies for exploited fish populations, knowledge and consideration of their movement patterns are essential. Since the efficacy of management approaches vary depending on the sedentary or mobile nature of the target species, presence, space use and depth utilisation were examined to understand the movement patterns of redthroat emperor Lethrinus miniatus. Sixty individuals were monitored for up to 12 months in an acoustic array comprising three coral reefs, and variation in space use and movement patterns was observed among 26 individuals. Half of the individuals were recorded only in proximity of one receiver along the reef edge, while the other half were detected at multiple receivers and used horizontal areas of approximately 4 km². Periods of non-detection and lower detection frequency at night (χ ₁ ²  = 342.157, P < 0.001) indicated individuals may move away from the monitored reef edge to the adjacent sandy habitat, but most movements outside the array remain unknown. Long-distance movement was recorded for one individual, recaptured ~160 km from the release location. Generally, no trends in depth use were apparent, L. miniatus inhabited a variety of depths, which were not related to individual size or time of day, yet some effect of month was evident. Variation in movement among adult L. miniatus indicates that while some individuals undergo broader-scale movement, spatial closures that cover individual reefs (>4 km²) could provide protection from fishing for the proportion of the population that displayed high site fidelity and moderate-sized activity spaces (over a period of up to 12 months).     

Tiger shark (Galeocerdo cuvier) movement patterns and habitat use determined by satellite tagging in eastern Australian waters

Partial migration is considered ubiquitous among vertebrates, but little is known about the movements of oceanodromous apex predators such as sharks, particularly at their range extents. PAT-Mk10 and SPOT5 electronic tags were used to investigate tiger shark (Galeocerdo cuvier) spatial dynamics, site fidelity and habitat use off eastern Australia between April 2007 and May 2013. Of the 18 tags deployed, 15 recorded information on depth and/or temperature, and horizontal movements. Tracking times ranged between four and 408 days, with two recovered pop-up archival tags allowing 63 days of high-resolution archived data to be analysed. Overall mean proportions of time-at-depth revealed that G. cuvier spent the majority of time-at-depths of <20 m, but undertook dives as deep as 920 m. Tagged sharks occupied ambient water temperatures from 29.5 °C at the surface to 5.9 °C at depth. Deep dives (>500 m) occurred mostly around dawn and dusk, but no definitive daily dive patterns were observed. Horizontal movements were characterised by combinations of resident and transient behaviour that coincided with seasonal changes in water temperature. While the majority of movement activity was focused around continental slope waters, large-scale migration was evident with one individual moving from offshore Sydney, Australia, to New Caledonia (c. 1,800 km) in 48 days. Periods of tiger shark residency outside of Australia’s fisheries management zones highlight the potential vulnerability of the species to unregulated fisheries and the importance of cross-jurisdictional arrangements for species’ management and conservation.     

Irreplaceable area extends marine conservation hotspot off Tunisia: insights from GPS-tracking Scopoli’s shearwaters from the largest seabird colony in the Mediterranean

Recent meta-analyses identified conservation hotpots at the scale of the Mediterranean, yet those may be crude by lack of detailed information about the spatial ecology of the species involved. Here, we identify an irreplaceable marine area for >95 % of the world population of the Scopoli’s shearwater (Calonectris diomedea), which is endemic to the Mediterranean and breeds on the island of Zembra off Tunis. To this end, we studied the three-dimensional at-sea movements of 50 breeding adults (over a total of 94 foraging trips) in 2012 and 2013, using GPS and temperature–depth recorders. Feathers were also collected on all birds to investigate their trophic status. Despite Zembra being the largest seabird colony in the Mediterranean (141,000 pairs), the per capita home-range of Scopoli’s shearwaters foraging from this colony was not larger than that of birds from much smaller colonies, indicating highly beneficial feeding grounds in the Gulf of Tunis and off Cap Bon. Considering depleted Mediterranean small pelagic fish stocks, supposed to be Scopoli’s shearwater prey base, we therefore speculate that birds may now also largely feed on zooplankton, something which is supported by our stable isotopic analyses. Crucially, shearwater at-sea feeding and resting areas showed very little overlap with a conservation hotspot recently defined on the western side of the Gulf of Tunis using meta-analyses of species distributions relative to anthropogenic threats. We therefore propose a major extension to this conservation hotspot. Our study stresses the importance of detailed biotelemetry studies of marine megafauna movement ecology for refining large-scale conservation schemes such as marine protected area networks.     

Nutritional geometry and macronutrient variation in the diets of gannets: the challenges in marine field studies

Foraging theory proposes that the nutritional driver of food choice and foraging in carnivores is energy gain. In contrast, recent laboratory experiments have shown that several species of carnivore select prey that provides a diet with a specific balance of macronutrients, rather than the highest energy content. It remains, however, to be determined how nutritionally variable the foods of predators in the wild are, and whether they feed selectively from available prey to balance their diet. Here, we used a geometric method named the right-angled mixture triangle (RMT) for examining nutritional variability in the prey and selected diets of a group of wild carnivores and marine top predators, the gannets (Morus spp.). A prey-level diet analysis was performed on Australasian gannets (M. serrator) from two New Zealand locations, and the macronutrient composition of their chosen prey species was measured. We use RMT to extend the comparison in the compositions of foods and diets from Australasian gannets from Australia as well as Northern gannets (M. bassanus) and Cape gannets (M. capensis). We found nutritional variability at multiple scales: intra- and interspecific variability in the pelagic fish and squid prey themselves; and intra- and interspecific variability in the diets consumed by geographically disparate populations of gannets. This nutritional variability potentially presents these predatory seabirds with both opportunity to select an optimal diet, and constraint if prevented from securing an optimal diet.     

Diversity,abundance, and distribution of reef sharks on outer-shelf reefs of the Great Barrier Reef,Australia

Quantifying the distribution and habitat use of sharks is critical for understanding their ecological role and for establishing appropriate conservation and management regimes. On coral reefs, particularly the Great Barrier Reef (GBR), little is known regarding the distribution of sharks across major reef habitat types. In this study, we surveyed shark populations across outer-shelf reefs of the GBR in order to determine the diversity, abundance, and distribution of reef sharks across three major coral reef habitats: (1) the reef slope, (2) the back reef and (3) the reef flat. Model selection revealed that habitat was the principal factor influencing shark distribution and abundance. Specifically, overall shark abundance and diversity were significantly higher on the reef slope (and to a lesser degree, the back reef) than the reef flat. This confirms that shark populations are not homogeneously distributed across coral reefs. Thus, the results presented herein have important implications for shark population assessments. In addition, our results highlight the potential importance of the reef slope, with high levels of live coral cover and structural complexity, for sustaining reef shark populations. As this habitat is highly susceptible to disturbance events, this study provides a useful context for predicting and understanding how environmental degradation may influence reef shark populations in the future.     

Role of density in aggregation patterns and synchronization of spawning in the hermaphroditic scallop Pecten fumatus

In broadcast spawners, low densities and poor spawning synchronization can reduce fertilization success. In wild populations, individuals in close proximity tend to spawn more synchronously than those further apart, suggesting that low spawner densities may reduce gamete production by lessening the efficacy of pheromone signalling. This study assessed the role of adult density in aggregation patterns and spawning synchronization in a semi-sessile, hermaphroditic scallop, Pecten fumatus. The study was carried out in Great Bay, Tasmania, Australia (147.335 W, 43.220 S) in 2010–2012 by assessing (1) the relationship between density, small-scale aggregation patterns and nearest neighbour distance (NND), (2) the temporal pattern of spawning synchronization, and (3) the effect of site density and conspecific proximity on the probability of spawning. Densities observed in the field ranged from 1.455 to 0.021 ind m^?2. Sites with lower densities had less small-scale aggregation and greater NNDs. Patterns of small-scale aggregation and NNDs in P. fumatus were comparable to those observed in a gonochoristic species. Spawning synchronization was highly variable, ranging between 3.5 and 59.8 % of individuals spawning. P. fumatus was more likely to engage in spawning activity when at greater densities and at closer proximity to conspecifics. This strongly suggests that lower densities in this scallop reduce not only the number of individuals contributing to the production of gametes, but also reduces the synchronization of spawning.     

Sex ratio varies with egg investment in the red-necked phalarope (Phalaropus lobatus)

Fisher’s sex ratio theory predicts that on average parents should allocate resources equally to the production of males and females. However, when the cost/benefit ratio for producing males versus females differs, the theory predicts that parents may bias production, typically through underproduction of the sex with greater variation in fitness. We tested theoretical predictions in the red-necked phalarope, a polyandrous shorebird with sex-role reversal. Since females are larger and therefore potentially more expensive to produce and may have greater variation in reproductive success, we predicted from Fisher’s hypothesis a male bias in population embryonic sex ratio, and from sex allocation theory, female biases in the clutches of females allocating more resources to reproduction. We measured eggs and chicks and sexed 535 offspring from 163 clutches laid over 6 years at two sites in Alaska. The embryonic sex ratio of 51.1 M:48.9 F did not vary from parity. Clutch sex ratio (% male) was positively correlated with clutch mean egg size, opposite to our prediction. Within clutches, however, egg size did not differ by sex. Male phalarope fitness may be more variable than previously thought, and/or differential investment in eggs may affect the within-sex fitness of males more than females. Eggs producing males were less dense than those producing females, possibly indicating they contained more yolk relative to albumen. Albumen contributes to chick structural size, while yolk supports survivorship after hatch. Sex-specific chick growth strategies may affect egg size and allocation patterns by female phalaropes and other birds.     

Marble wastes and pig slurry improve the environmental and plant-relevant properties of mine tailings

Poor soil fertility is often the biggest challenge to the establishment of vegetation in mine wastes deposits. We conducted field trials in the El Gorguel and El Lirio sites in SE Spain, two representative tailing ponds of similar properties except for pH, to understand the environmental and plant-relevant benefits of marble waste (MW) and pig slurry (PS) applications to mine tailings. Low pH (5.4) tailings (El Lirio) exhibit reduction of up to fourfold in bio-availability of metals as shown by the DTPA-Zn, Pb, water-soluble Zn, Pb and up to 3× for water-soluble Cd. Tailings in El Gorguel have high pH (7.4) and did not exhibit significant trends in the reductions of water-extractable Zn, Pb, Cd and Cu. Improvements to the edaphic (plant-relevant) properties of tailings after the amendments are not as sensitive to pH compared to the environmental characteristics. The two sites had increases in aggregate stability, organic matter (total N and organic C) although total N is higher in the El Gorguel (up to 212 μg N kg^?1) than the El Lirio (up to 26 μg N kg^?1). However, cation exchange capacities are similar in both sites at 15.2 cmol(+) kg^?1. We conclude that the characteristics, especially pH, of tailing materials significantly influence the fate of metals but not improvements to plant-relevant properties such as cation exchange capacity and aggregate stability 1 year after the application of MW and PS amendments.