WORLD PETROLEUM RESOURCE ESTIMATES AND PRODUCTION FORECASTS: IMPLICATIONS FOR GOVERNMENT POLICY

Resource estimates alone will not give advance warning of encroaching production difficulties. An analysis of the general stages in the evolution of petroleum production and discovery and of industry statistics provides an estimate of when the stage characterised by increasing production in the market economy countries outside the United States and Canada will end. The analysis indicates that the year of maximum production will be in the 1990s. Economic growth aggravates the difficulties accompanying the production decline by advancing the date of peak production and by increasing the adjustments that must be made as oil production declines. Des prévisions de ressources à elles seules ne constituent pas des signes précurseurs de difficultés croissantes de production. Une analyse des étapes générales marquant l'evolution de la découverte et de la production du pétrole ainsi que des statistiques industrielles nous permet de prévoir l'époque à laquelle prendra fin la phase de production accrue dans les pays à économie de marché en dehors des Etats-Unis et du Canada. Cette analyse révèle que l'année de production maximale se situera dans les années 90. La croissance économique accentue les difficultés qui accompagnent le déclin de la production de pétrole en avancant la date à laquelle cell-ci atteindra son plafond et en augmentant le nombre d'ajustements qui s'avèrent nécessaires au fur et à mesure qu'elle baisse. Las evaluaciones de recursos no dan por si solas un aviso anticipado de las dificultades de producción. Un análisis de las etapas principales en la evolución del descubrimiento y producción de petróleo y de las estadísticas industriales provee un estimado de cuando va a terminar la etapa caracterizada por un crecimiento de producción en los paises de economias de mercado otros que Estados Unidos y Canada. El análisis indica que el año de producción máxima se hallará en la década del 90. El crecimiento económico agrava las dificultades debidas a la declinación de la producción al adelantar la fecha de máxima producción (pico) y al aumentar los ajustes que deven hacerse cuando la producción de petróleos disminuye.     

International competitive displacement from environmental control The quantitative gains from methodological refinement

This paper demonstrates empirically the gain from adopting more general equilibrium approaches in projecting the effects on domestic output and international trade of environmental controls. The suggested models include a partial equilibrium case where all industries are treated independently, an intermediate case incorporating effects in supplying industries, and general equilibrium formulations based on alternative macroeconomic conditions. U. S. data is used to evaluate these models. Under both pollutor pays and subsidy financing schemes, moving from the simplest case to the intermediate model results in quite different industry projections. Including macroeconomic factors appears particularly important in the classical setting.     

Engaging Economic Development Agencies in Environmental Protection: the case for embedded autonomy

This article examines the role of economic development agencies in strengthening the environmental performance of industry within rapidly industrialising East Asian economies. Three case-study examples are considered, namely, the role of the Industrial Development Board in reducing industrial pollution in Taiwan, pollution control in the palm oil industry in Malaysia, and the role of the Economic Development Board in influencing environmental performance of industry in Singapore. The concept of embedded autonomy is developed to consider the ways in which agencies of economic development can work with firms and industries while simultaneously remaining autonomous from these firms with respect to setting and enforcing performance standards. The three cases suggest that a form of policy integration that more directly integrates economic and environmental goals within agencies of economic development may be feasible, but only where there exists a strong autonomous government bureaucracy and where there is strong societal commitment to improving the environmental performance of industry.     

Effect of soil solids concentration in batch tests on the partition coefficients of organic pollutants in landfill liner-soil materials

 The effect of the soil solids concentration in batch tests on the measured values of the partition coefficient (K _p) of organic pollutants in landfill liner-soil material was investigated. Since this study was based on the results of batch and column tests conducted independently, there were limitations to the conclusions derived. The organic compounds tested were benzene, methylene chloride, toluene, trichloroethylene, and p-xylene. The results of this study showed that as soil solids concentrations increased, the measured K _p values of these organic compounds strongly decreased. The observed values of K _p stabilized when the soil solids concentration was above a certain value. Typical K _p values obtained from batch tests conducted under high soil solids concentrations were close to those obtained from column tests. It was concluded that the K _p values of organic compounds measured under low soil solids concentrations, i.e., less than 100 g/l, may not correctly simulate the field situation. Consequently, the values of K _p obtained with low soil solids concentrations can result in an overestimation of the retardation factor of the landfill liner material. Received: March 14, 2002 / Accepted: August 25, 2002     

STREAM DISCHARGE PREDICTION VIA A GRID BASED SOIL WATER ROUTING WITH PADDY FIELDS1

ABSTRACT: A grid based daily hydrologic model for a watershed with paddy fields was developed to predict the stream discharge. ASCII formatted elevation, soil, and land use data supported by the GRASS Geographic Information System are used to generate distributed results such as surface runoff and subsurface flow, soil water content, and evapotranspiration. The model uses a single flow path algorithm and simulates a water balance at each grid element. A linear reservoir assumption was used to predict subsurface runoff components. The model was applied to a 75.6 km² watershed located in the middle of South Korea, and observed stream flow hydrographs from 1995 and 1996 were compared to model predictions. The stream flow predictions of 1995 and 1996 generally agreed with the observed flow, resulting in a Nash‐Sutcliffe efficiency R² of 0.60 and 0.62, respectively. The hydraulic conductivity for percolating water through the saturated layer affected baseflow generation. The levee height of the paddy influenced the time and magnitude of the surface runoff, depending on irrigation management. The model will be used for making low flow management decisions by evaluating the role of each land use to stream flow, especially in case of paddy decrease by gradual urbanization of a watershed.     

NUTRIENT CONCENTRATIONS IN WASTEWATER TREATMENT PLANT EFFLUENTS,SOUTH PLATTE RWER BASIN1

ABSTRACT: Accurate data about nutrient concentrations in wastewater treatment plant effluents are needed for river basin water-quality studies. As part of the U.S. Geological Survey's National Water-Quality Assessment Program in the South Platte River Basin, nutrient data were requested from 31 wastewater-treatment plants located in the basin. This article describes the types of nutrient data available from the plants, examines the variability of effluent nutrient concentrations, and discusses methods for estimation of nutrient concentrations where data are lacking. Ammonia was monitored at 88 percent of the plants, nitrite plus nitrate was monitored at 40 percent of the plants, and organic nitrogen and phosphorus were monitored at less than 25 percent of the plants. Median total nitrogen concentrations and median total phosphorus concentrations were small compared to typical literature estimates for wastewater-treatment plants with secondary treatment. Nutrient concentrations in effluent from wastewater-treatment plants varied widely between and within plants. For example, ammonia concentrations varied as much as 5 mg/L during a day, as much as 10 mg/L from day to day, and as much as 30 mg/L from summer to winter within a plant. In the South Platte River Basin, estimates of median annual ammonia and nitrite plus nitrate concentrations can be improved based on plant processes; and nitrite plus nitrate and organic nitrogen concentrations can be estimated based on ammonia concentrations. However, to avoid large estimation errors, more complete nutrient data from wastewater-treatment plants are needed for integration into river basin water quality studies. The paucity of data hinders attempts to evaluate the relative importance of point source and nonpoint source nutrient loadings to rivers.     

Conferences

Second Caribbean Conference on Science, Hazards and Hazard Management; Kingston, Jamaica, 9-12 October 1996
Mitigating the Millennium: Seminar on Community Participation and Impact Measurement in Disaster Preparedness and Mitigation Programmes; Overseas Development Institute, London, 9 October 1996     

In-situ sparging: Mass transfer mechanisms

In-situ sparging has been accepted as a method to rapidly remediate groundwater at considerably lower costs compared to remedies based on groundwater recovery alone. The success of in-situ sparging depends on effective mass transfer between air and contaminated media in the subsurface. Factors affecting mass transfer include advective airflow, diffusive transport, interphase chemical partitioning, and chemical and biological reaction rates between sparged gases and subsurface contaminants, minerals, and naturally occurring organic compounds. Understanding these factors can increase the design efficiency of in-situ sparging and assist in developing sparging systems that use gases other than air (i.e., oxygen, ozone, and methane).     

Inchelium: non-sustainable resource dependency

Summary In order to consider appropriate sustainable development, it is first necessary to understand the problems of developments that are inappropriate for specific population groups. Variables, such as, the culture of the group, its historical experiences, demographic and economic resources, population density, and remoteness or urban proximity should be scrutinized. This is a case study of one population group with a history of resource dependency.Inchelium is a small Native American community on the Colville Indian Reservation in Washington, USA. The construction of a large dam ended fishing in Inchelium. Changes due to the dam have led to exploitation and degradation of the community's lifestyle. Several attempts at viable alternative economic development have led to disagreements about cultural and environmental issues. Lack of sustainable development has fostered a non-viable economy. In this economy half of the employable persons are unemployed, and 80 percent are dependent upon some form of government financial and service aid.These problems are related to the effects of colonization found on all North American Indian reservations. A dependency relationship with the federal government has resulted in qualitative changes in the use of natural resources, from subsistence to extraction.Dr Pamela Elkind is Department Chairperson and Professor of Environmental Sociology at Eastern Washington University. David Lundgren is based in the Department of Sociology at Stevenson College. This paper was first delivered at the Global Forum '94 Conference in Manchester, UK.