Modeling the Hydrology of Climate Change in California’s Sierra Nevada for Subwatershed Scale Adaptation1

Young, Charles A., Marisa I. Escobar‐Arias, Martha Fernandes, Brian Joyce, Michael Kiparsky, Jeffrey F. Mount, Vishal K. Mehta, David Purkey, Joshua H. Viers, and David Yates, 2009. Modeling the Hydrology of Climate Change in California’s Sierra Nevada for Subwatershed Scale Adaptation. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 45(6):1409‐1423. Abstract: The rainfall‐runoff model presented in this study represents the hydrology of 15 major watersheds of the Sierra Nevada in California as the backbone of a planning tool for water resources analysis including climate change studies. Our model implementation documents potential changes in hydrologic metrics such as snowpack and the initiation of snowmelt at a finer resolution than previous studies, in accordance with the needs of watershed‐level planning decisions. Calibration was performed with a sequence of steps focusing sequentially on parameters of land cover, snow accumulation and melt, and water capacity and hydraulic conductivity of soil horizons. An assessment of the calibrated streamflows using goodness of fit statistics indicate that the model robustly represents major features of weekly average flows of the historical 1980‐2001 time series. Runs of the model for climate warming scenarios with fixed increases of 2°C, 4°C, and 6°C for the spatial domain were used to analyze changes in snow accumulation and runoff timing. The results indicated a reduction in snowmelt volume that was largest in the 1,750‐2,750 m elevation range. In addition, the runoff center of mass shifted to earlier dates and this shift was non‐uniformly distributed throughout the Sierra Nevada. Because the hydrologic model presented here is nested within a water resources planning system, future research can focus on the management and adaptation of the water resources system in the context of climate change.     

Convergence of Culture, Ecology, and Ethics: Management of Feral Swamp Buffalo in Northern Australia

This paper examines the identity of Asian swamp buffalo (Bubalus bubalis) from different value orientations. Buffalo were introduced into Northern (Top End) Australia in the early nineteenth century. A team of transdisciplinary researchers, including an ethicist, has been engaged in field research on feral buffalo in Arnhem Land over the past three years. Using historical documents, literature review, field observations, interviews with key informants, and interaction with the Indigenous land owners, an understanding of the diverse views on the scientific, cultural, and economic significance of buffalo was obtained. While the diverse stakeholders in buffalo exploitation and management have historically delivered divergent value orientations on the nature of the human–buffalo relationship, we argue that over time there is the possibility of values and ethical convergence. Such convergence is possible via transdisciplinary and transcultural agreement on the value stances that constitute the construction of the being or identity of buffalo in the face of the overwhelming need to manage population density and gross numbers.     

Assessment of total urban metabolism and metabolic inefficiency in an Irish city-region

This paper aims to measure product and waste flows in an Irish city-region using the principles of metabolism and mass balance. An empirical indicator to measure resource efficiency, using a ratio of waste disposal as a function of product consumption, was developed and it was found that total materials metabolic inefficiency fell by 31% from 0.13 in 1996 to 0.09 in 2002. The paper concludes by analyzing the strengths and weaknesses of this indicator and its potential application in the field of sustainable consumption and resource efficiency as well as making suggestions to improve and strengthen the indicator.     

Polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) in leachates from selected landfill sites in South Africa

The last few decades have seen dramatic growth in the scale of production and the use of polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) as flame retardants. Consequently, PBDEs such as BDE -28, -47, -66, -71, -75, -77, -85, -99, -100, -119, -138, -153, -154, and -183 have been detected in various environmental matrices. Generally, in South Africa, once the products containing these chemicals have outlived their usefulness, they are discarded into landfill sites. Consequently, the levels of PBDEs in leachates from landfill sites may give an indication of the general exposure and use of these compounds. The present study was aimed at determining the occurrence and concentrations of most common PBDEs in leachates from selected landfill sites. The extraction capacities of the solvents were also tested. Spiked landfill leachate samples were used for the recovery tests. Separation and determination of the PBDE congeners were carried out with a gas chromatograph equipped with Ni63 electron capture detector. The mean percentage recoveries ranged from 63% to 108% (n=3) for landfill leachate samples with petroleum ether giving the highest percentage extraction. The mean concentrations of PBDEs obtained ranged from ND to 2670pgl(-1), ND to 6638pgl(-1), ND to 7230pgl(-1), 41 to 4009pgl(-1), 90 to 9793pgl(-1) for the Garankuwa, Hatherly, Kwaggarsrand, Soshanguve and Temba landfill sites, respectively. Also BDE -28, -47, -71 and BDE-77 were detected in the leachate samples from all the landfill sites; and all the congeners were detected in two of the oldest landfill sites. The peak concentrations were recorded for BDE-47 at three sites and BDE-71 and BDE-75 at two sites. The highest concentration, 9793+/-1.5pgl(-1), was obtained for the Temba landfill site with the highest BOD value. This may suggest some influence of organics on the level of PBDEs. Considering the leaching characteristics of brominated flame retardants, there is a high possibility that with time these compounds may infiltrate into the groundwater around the sites since most of the sites are not adequately lined.     

Mathematical Modeling of Column and Field Dense Nonaqueous Phase Liquid Tracer Tests

Mathematical models for the simulation of dense nonaqueous phase liquid tracer tests (DTTs) in laboratory columns and in the field are developed and examined. The DTT technique is a means of estimating the quantity of dense nonaqueous phase liquid (DNAPL) in a domain of interest in an aquifer. The two-dimensional field DTT model uses the Method of Principal Directions and an asymmetrical upwind algorithm for describing advective transport. Both models include diffusion transport of tracer into and from low-permeability porous structures such as clay lenses, as well as the mass transport kinetics of partitioning tracer to and from the DNAPL droplets. The dependence of the effluent tracer concentration curves on the parameters of the models is explored, and conclusions are drawn regarding the applicability of, and several possible problems with, the DTT technique. Model results indicate that the DTT performs well at locating distributed droplets of DNAPL, but is unlikely to be useful in the assessment of pooled DNAPL.     

Evaluation of Caging Designs and a Fingernail Clam for Use in an In Situ Bioassay

Two cage designs and fingernail clams(Sphaerium fabale) were evaluated for theirsuitability for use in in situ bioassays toassess the ecological condition of a stream andpredict ecological recovery potential. One design(referred to as tray design) was a modified plastictray about one-fourth full of small gravels andcovered with 1 mm fiberglass mesh. The second design(referred to as tube-plates) consisted of shortplexiglass tubes about one-third full of small gravelsand attached horizontally to a plexiglass plate. Oneend of each tube faced into the current; both endswere covered with mesh. Cages containing clams weredeployed at reference and impacted (test) sites forperiods of 70 to 135 d. Growth and survival were theprimary endpoints evaluated, but the tube-platesallowed isolation of individual clams so that natalityalso could be evaluated as an endpoint. Results ofbenthic macroinvertebrate surveys, performed foranother study, were included to help validate bioassayresults. Both cage designs yielded good quantitative,site-specific results for clam survival and growth;results for natality, though, were less conclusive. Clam survival and growth results were in good generalagreement with the results for the benthicmacroinvertebrate community surveys. At a site wherethe macroinvertebrate community was the mostdepauperate, clam mortality was always rapid. At asite where the condition of the macroinvertebratecommunity was only slightly less impacted than themost impacted site, clam growth was almost alwayssignificantly lower than at reference sites. Survivalof clams was significantly reduced in <25 d at thissite in some trials, but in other trials there waslittle mortality. At a minimally impacted site, clamsurvival was similar to that found at reference sites,and differences in clam growth were not detectableuntil after 40 to 50 d of exposure. The tube-platedesign was easier to use, allowed more flexibility inselection of response parameters, and required lesshandling time of test animals, thus, this was thepreferred design. Our results demonstrated thateither in situ bioassay design can be used toaugment monitoring and assessment programs. Their useas a predictor of ecological recovery, however,requires further evaluation.     

Long-Term Relationship between Phosphorus Inputs and Wetland Phosphorus Concentrations in a Northern Everglades Marsh

Assessments of long-term relationships between changes innutrient inputs and wetland nutrient concentrations can becomplicated by fluctuations in other environmental factors aswell as by problems typical of long-term monitoring data.Consequently, statistical analysisof these types of data sets requirescareful consideration of environmental covariates, potentialbiases in the monitoring design, and irregularities caused bychanges in field sampling protocols. We evaluated therelationship between anthropogenic phosphorus (P) inputs andwater-column total P (TP) concentrations in a northernEverglades marsh by statistically analyzing available datacollected from several sampling programs over the past 20 years(1978–1997). Canal inputs of agricultural runoff contributemost of the P to the marsh and have produced a zone ofenrichment within the marsh during the past few decades.Regression analyses showed that both canal and marsh TPconcentrations increased during the 1980s and then decreased inthe 1990s. However, the statistical relationship between canal Pinputs and marsh TP, while significant, generally was weakexcept for marsh locations adjacent to the canal. Strongerrelationships existed between marsh TP and hydrologic parameterssuch as marsh water depth, which is controlled by changes inweather patterns and marsh management. In particular, dryconditions during the 1980s may have contributed to observedincreases in marsh P concentrations and the movement of a P`front' further into the marsh. Higher rainfall and water depthsand agricultural best management programs initiated during the1990s have been associated with reduced P concentrations incanal waters entering the marsh. While it is anticipated thatthis reduction eventually will result in lower marsh TPconcentrations, this effect is not yet evident, possibly due tointernal loading of P from enriched marsh soils. Our findingsillustrate some of the environmental factors that can complicateattempts to develop empirical relationships between P inputs andwetland P concentrations and to use such relationships to forecast changesin marsh concentrations based on past monitoring data alone.     

A Framework for Comprehensive,Integrated, Watershed Monitoring in New York City

The International Life SciencesInstitute (ILSI) Risk Science Institute (RSI) convenedan expert panel of scientists to developrecommendations for a comprehensive monitoring programfor the Croton and Catskill/Delaware watersheds, whichprovide drinking water to New York City's residents. This effort was conducted as part of efforts topreserve and enhance the quality of New York City'sreservoir system through a watershed protectionprogram. The panel developed recommendations for astrategic framework on which to construct a monitoringprogram. As part of this activity, the paneldetermined whether existing monitoring activities weredeficient and, where activities were deficient, thepanel developed recommendations for additionalinformation that should be collected.The panel recommended the development and use of anintegrated approach to watershed monitoring, whichdraws on modeling, risk-based planning and analysis,statistical sampling and design, and basic compliancemonitoring. The approach should be designed toprovide an assessment of natural and anthropogenicsources of stress to the system as well as anassessment of water quality trends in response tostresses acting in concert, both over the long termand over the five-year New York City Memorandum ofAgreement (MOA) assessment time frame. It should alsoprovide an assessment of the human health andenvironmental risks posed by a variety of stressors,and the impact of management actions implemented toameliorate stressors.     

Small mammals as indicators of short-term and long-term disturbance in mixed prairie

Disturbance by military maneuvers over short and long time scales may have differential effects on grassland communities. We assessed small mammals as indicators of disturbance by military maneuvers in a mixed prairie in southern Oklahoma USA. We examined sites on two soil series, Foard and Lawton, across a gradient of disturbance intensity. A MANOVA showed that abundance of small mammals was associated (p = 0.03) with short-term (cover of vehicle tracks) disturbance but was not associated (p = 0.12) with long-term (loss of soil organic carbon, SOC) disturbance intensity. At the individual species level, Sigmodon hispidus (cotton rat) and Peromyscus maniculatus (deer mouse) occurred across all levels of disturbance and in both soil types. Only P. maniculatus abundance changed (p < 0.01) with short-term disturbance and increased by about one individual per 5% of additional track-cover. Abundance of P. maniculatus also increased (p = 0.04) by about three individuals per 1% increase in soil carbon. Chaetodipus hispidus (hispid pocket mouse) and Reithrodontomys fulvescens (fulvous harvest mouse) only occurred in single soil types limiting their potential as more general indicators. Abundance of P. maniculatus was positively related to shifts in plant species composition and likely reflected changes in vegetation structure (i.e. litter depth) and forage availability resulting from disturbance. Peromyscus maniculatus may be a useful biological indicator of ecosystem change because it responded predictably to both long-term and short-term disturbance and, when coupled with soil, plant, and disturbance history variables, can reveal land condition trends.