Electricity from Fossil Fuels without CO2 Emissions: Assessing the Costs of Carbon Dioxide Capture and Sequestration in U.S. Electricity Markets

ABSTRACT

The decoupling of fossil-fueled electricity production from atmospheric CO₂ emissions via CO₂ capture and sequestration (CCS) is increasingly regarded as an important means of mitigating climate change at a reasonable cost. Engineering analyses of CO₂ mitigation typically compare the cost of electricity for a base generation technology to that for a similar plant with CO₂ capture and then compute the carbon emissions mitigated per unit of cost. It can be hard to interpret mitigation cost estimates from this plant-level approach when a consistent base technology cannot be identified. In addition, neither engineering analyses nor general equilibrium models can capture the economics of plant dispatch. A realistic assessment of the costs of carbon sequestration as an emissions abatement strategy in the electric sector therefore requires a systems-level analysis. We discuss various frameworks for computing mitigation costs and introduce a simplified model of electric sector planning. Results from a “bottom-up” engineering-economic analysis for a representative U.S. North American Electric Reliability Council (NERC) region illustrate how the penetration of CCS technologies and the dispatch of generating units vary with the price of carbon emissions and thereby determine the relationship between mitigation cost and emissions reduction.     

Methodology for Siting Ambient Air Monitors at the Neighborhood Scale

Abstract

In siting a monitor to measure compliance with U.S. National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) for par-ticulate matter (PM), there is a need to characterize variations in PM concentration within a neighborhood-scale region to achieve monitor siting objectives. A simple methodology is provided here for the selection of a neighborhood-scale site for meeting either of the two objectives identified for PM monitoring. This methodology is based on analyzing middle-scale (from 100 to 500 m) data from within the area of interest. The required data can be obtained from widely available dispersion models and emissions databases.

The performance of the siting methodology was evaluated in a neighborhood-scale field study conducted in Hudson County, NJ, to characterize the area’s inhalable particulate (PM₁₀) concentrations. Air monitors were located within a 2- by 2-km area in the vicinity of the Lincoln Tunnel entrance in Hudson County. Results indicate the siting methodology performed well, providing a positive relationship between the predicted concentration rank at each site and the actual rank experienced during the field study. Also discussed are factors that adversely affected the predictive capabilities of the model.     

Vapor-Phase and Fine Particulate Matter Concentrations of Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons Measured during the Winter Months in a Northern Rocky Mountain Urban Airshed

Abstract

A fine particulate matter (PM_2.5) sampling program was conducted in Missoula, MT, to investigate both the particle and vapor phases of PM_2.5-associated polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) found in a northern Rocky Mountain urban airshed. Twenty-four-hour samples were collected during the cold winter months of January through April 2002, when many of the more volatile organic components of PM_2.5 were expected to be found in the condensed particle form. To meet analytical detection limits, each of the 12 individual sample days were aggregated into four total filter and polyurethane foam (PUF) samples, respectively, with each aggregate containing 3 sample days. Quartz filter (particle-phase PAHs) and PUF (vapor-phase PAHs) aggregates were analyzed separately for 18 individual PAHs and phenolics by gas chromatography/mass spectrometry. Results showed that 87% of the PM_2.5-associated phenolics and PAHs measured in this study were found in the vapor phase. PM_2.5-associated gas/particle partition coefficients (K_p,2.5) ranged from 0 for the lighter phenolics and PAHs to ~0.1 for some of the heavier PAHs, such as fluoranthene and pyrene. Calculating K_p,2.5 for the heaviest measured PAHs was not feasible because of low or undetectable concentrations in the vapor phases of these compounds. Phenolics and two-ringed and three-ringed PAHs were found almost exclusively in the vapor phase. Four-ringed PAHs were distributed between the particle and vapor phases, with more mass measured in the vapor phase. Very little five-ringed and higher PAHs were measured from either the filter or PUF sampling medium. These results provide information on both the concentrations and different phases of PM_2.5-associated PAHs measured during the winter months in a northern Rocky Mountain urban airshed, when concentrations of PM_2.5 are generally at their highest compared with the rest of the year.     

Relative Importance of School Bus-Related Microenvironments to Children’s Pollutant Exposure

Abstract

Real‐time concentrations of black carbon, particle‐bound polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, nitrogen dioxide, and fine particulate counts, as well as integrated and real‐time fine particulate matter (PM_2.5) mass concentrations were measured inside school buses during long commutes on Los Angeles Unified School District bus routes, at bus stops along the routes, at the bus loading/unloading zone in front of the selected school, and at nearby urban “background” sites. Across all of the pollutants, mean concentrations during bus commutes were higher than in any other microenvironment. Mean exposures (mean concentration times time spent in a particular microenvironment) in bus commutes were between 50 and 200 times greater than those for the loading/unloading microenvironment, and 20–40 times higher than those for the bus stops, depending on the pollutant. Although the analyzed school bus commutes represented only 10% of a child’s day, on average they contributed one‐third of a child’s 24‐hr overall black carbon exposure during a school day. For species closely related to vehicle exhaust, the within‐cabin exposures were generally dominated by the effect of surrounding traffic when windows were open and by the bus’s own exhaust when windows were closed. Low‐emitting buses generally exhibited high concentrations only when traveling behind a diesel vehicle, whereas high‐emitting buses exhibited high concentrations both when following other diesel vehicles and when idling without another diesel vehicle in front of the bus. To reduce school bus commute exposures, we recommend minimizing commute times, avoiding caravanning with other school buses, using the cleanest buses for the longest bus routes, maintaining conventional diesel buses to eliminate visible emissions, and transitioning to cleaner fuels and advanced particulate control technologies as soon as possible.     

An Inexpensive Dual-Chamber Particle Monitor: Laboratory Characterization

Abstract

In developing countries, high levels of particle pollution from the use of coal and biomass fuels for household cooking and heating are a major cause of ill health and premature mortality. The cost and complexity of existing monitoring equipment, combined with the need to sample many locations, make routine quantification of household particle pollution levels difficult. Recent advances in technology, however, have enabled the development of a small, portable, data-logging particle monitor modified from commercial smoke alarm technology that can meet the needs of surveys in the developing world at reasonable cost. Laboratory comparisons of a prototype particle monitor developed at the University of California at Berkeley (UCB) with gravi-metric filters, a tapered element oscillating microbalance, and a TSI DustTrak to quantify the UCB particle monitor response as a function of both concentration and particle size and to examine sensor response in relation to changes in temperature, relative humidity, and elevation are presented here. UCB particle monitors showed good linearity in response to different concentrations of laboratory-generated oleic acid aerosols with a coarse (mass median diameter, 2.1 µm) and fine (mass median diameter, 0.27–0.42 µm) size distributions (average r² = 0.997 ± 0.005). The photoelectric and ionization chamber showed a wide range of responses based on particle size and, thus, require calibration with the aerosol of interest. The ionization chamber was five times more sensitive to fine rather than coarse particles, whereas the photoelectric chamber was five times more sensitive to coarse than fine. The ratio of the response between the two sensors has the potential for mass calibration of individual data points based on estimated parameters of the size distribution. The results demonstrate the significant potential of this monitor, which will facilitate the evaluation of interventions (improved fuels, stoves, and ventilation) on indoor air pollution levels and research on the impacts of indoor particle levels on health in developing countries.     

Real-Time Measurements of Jet Aircraft Engine Exhaust

Abstract

Particulate-phase exhaust properties from two different types of ground-based jet aircraft engines—high-thrust and turboshaft—were studied with real-time instruments on a portable pallet and additional time-integrated sampling devices. The real-time instruments successfully characterized rapidly changing particulate mass, light absorption, and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon (PAH) content. The integrated measurements included particulate-size distributions, PAH, and carbon concentrations for an entire test run (i.e., “run-integrated” measurements). In all cases, the particle-size distributions showed single modes peaking at 20–40nm diameter. Measurements of exhaust from high-thrust F404 engines showed relatively low-light absorption compared with exhaust from a turboshaft engine. Particulate-phase PAH measurements generally varied in phase with both net particulate mass and with light-absorbing particulate concentrations. Unexplained response behavior sometimes occurred with the real-time PAH analyzer, although on average the real-time and integrated PAH methods agreed within the same order of magnitude found in earlier investigations.     

Determination of Levoglucosan in Atmospheric Fine Particulate Matter

Abstract

A microanalytical method suitable for the quantitative determination of the sugar anhydride levoglucosan in low-volume samples of atmospheric fine particulate matter (PM) has been developed and validated. The method incorporates two sugar anhydrides as quality control standards. The recovery standard sedoheptulosan (2,7-anhydro-β-D-altro-heptulopyranose) in 20 μL solvent is added onto samples of the atmospheric fine PM and aged for 1 hr before ultrasonic extraction with ethylacetate/ triethylamine. The extract is reduced in volume, an internal standard is added (1,5-anhydro-D-mannitol), and a portion of the extract is derivatized with 10% by volume N-trimethylsilylimidazole. The derivatized extract is analyzed by gas chromatography/mass spectrometry (GC/MS). The recovery of levoglucosan using this procedure was 69 ± 6% from five filters amended with 2 μg levoglu-cosan, and the reproducibility of the assay is 9%. The limit of detection is ～0.1 μg/mL, which is equivalent to ～3.5 ng/m³ for a 10 L/min sampler or ～8.7 ng/m³ for a 4 L/min personal sampler (assuming 24-hr integrated samples). We demonstrated that levoglucosan concentrations in collocated samples (expressed as ng/m³) were identical irrespective of whether samples were collected by PM with aerodynamic diameter ≤2.5 μm or PM with aerodynamic diameter ≤10 μm impactors. It was also demonstrated that X-ray fluorescence analysis of samples of atmospheric PM, before levoglucosan determinations, did not alter the levels of levoglucosan.     

Supply Curves for Using Powder River Basin Coal to Reduce Sulfur Emissions

Abstract

Supply curves were prepared for coal-fired power plants in the contiguous United States switching to Wyoming's Powder River Basin (PRB) low-sulfur coal. Up to 625 plants, representing ～44% of the nameplate capacity of all coal-fired plants, could switch. If all switched, more than $8.8 billion additional capital would be required and the cost of electricity would increase by up to $5.9 billion per year, depending on levels of plant derating. Coal switching would result in sulfur dioxide (SO₂) emissions reduction of 4.5 million t/yr. Increase in cost of electricity would be in the range of 0.31-0.73 cents per kilowatt-hour. Average cost of S emissions reduction could be as high as $1298 per t of SO₂. Up to 367 plants, or 59% of selected plants with 32% of 44% nameplate capacity, could have marginal cost in excess of $1000 per t of SO₂. Up to 73 plants would appear to benefit from both a lowering of the annual cost and a lowering of SO₂ emissions by switching to the PRB coal.     

Multiple-year black carbon measurements and source apportionment using Delta-C in Rochester,New York

Black carbon (BC), an important component of the atmospheric aerosol, has climatic, environmental, and human health significance. In this study, BC was continuously measured using a two-wavelength aethalometer (370 nm and 880 nm) in Rochester, New York, from January 2007 to December 2010. The monitoring site is adjacent to two major urban highways (I-490 and I-590), where 14% to 21% of the total traffic was heavy-duty diesel vehicles. The annual average BC concentrations were 0.76 μg/m³, 0.67 μg/m³, 0.60 μg/m³, and 0.52 μg/m³ in 2007, 2008, 2009, and 2010, respectively. Positive matrix factorization (PMF) modeling was performed using PM_2.5 elements, sulfate, nitrate, ammonia, elemental carbon (EC), and organic carbon (OC) data from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) speciation network and Delta-C (UVBC_370nm – BC_880nm) data. Delta-C has been previously shown to be a tracer of wood combustion factor. It was used as an input variable in source apportionment models for the first time in this study and was found to play an important role in separating traffic (especially diesel) emissions from wood combustion emissions. The result showed the annual average PM_2.5 concentrations apportioned to diesel emissions in 2007, 2008, 2009, and 2010 were 1.34 μg/m³, 1.25 μg/m³, 1.13 μg/m³, and 0.97 μg/m³, respectively. The BC conditional probability function (CPF) plots show a large contribution from the highway diesel traffic to elevated BC concentrations. The measurements and modeling results suggest an impact of the U.S Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) 2007 Heavy-Duty Highway Rule on the decrease of BC and PM_2.5 concentrations during the study period.

Implications: This study suggests that there was an observable impact of the U.S EPA 2007 Heavy-Duty Highway Rule on the ambient black carbon concentrations in Rochester, New York. Aethalometer Delta-C was used as an input variable in source apportionment models and it allowed the separation of traffic (especially diesel) emissions from wood combustion emissions.     

A Monte-Carlo Simulation of the Ozone Attainment Process

A Monte-Carlo simulation of the approach to attainment of the National Ambient Air Quality Standard for ozone has been performed for the California Bay Area Air Quality Management District. Four compliance tests together with different design values are used in the simulation. The results show that the present compliance test requiring a zero-percent chance of violation and the design value represented by the fourth highest value in three years makes both the standard and the control requirement much more stringent than generally assumed. In fact, to attain the standard on a long-term basis would require annual means and annual second-highest values that are close to those of the rural background ozone. The simulation also shows that by taking into account the fluctuation of ozone concentrations in the compliance test, such as a t test, and by using a design value consistent with the test, a standard defined in terms of the three-year mean of the annual second-highest values not only is more consistent with the currently- perceived stringency of the present standard, but may also be attainable with a more reasonable control requirement.