Analysis of air pollution data at a mixed source location using boosted regression trees

This paper explores the use of boosted regression trees to draw inferences concerning the source characteristics at a location of high source complexity. Models are developed for hourly concentrations of nitrogen oxides (NO_X) close to a large international airport. Model development is discussed and methods to quantify model uncertainties developed. It is shown that good explanatory models can be developed and further, allowing for interactions between model variables significantly improves the model fits compared with non-interacting models. Methods are used to determine which variables exert most influence over predicted concentrations and to explore the NO_X dependency for each. Model predictions are used to estimate aircraft take-off contributions to total concentrations of NO_X and determine how these predictions are affected by annual variations in meteorological conditions and runway use patterns. Furthermore, the results relating to the aircraft contributions to total NO_X concentration are compared with those from a more detailed independent field campaign. Finally, we find empirical evidence that plumes from larger aircraft disperse more rapidly from the point of release compared with smaller aircraft. The reasons for this behaviour and the implications are discussed.     

Near roadway concentrations of organic source markers

Concentrations of elemental carbon (EC), organic carbon (OC), and 33 organic source markers (12 alkanes, 18 polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons and ketones, and 3 hopanes) are reported near a highway in Raleigh, NC with an annual average daily traffic count of approximately 125,000 vehicles. Daily samples (24-h) were collected at two locations, one approximately 10 m and the other 275 m perpendicular from the road. Concentrations of OC were similar between near (mean = 7.6 μg m^?3) and far (8.0 μg m^?3) locations, but concentrations of most organic species at the near site were between 1.5 and 2 times higher than those at the far site.     

Evaluating inter-continental transport of fine aerosols:(2) Global health impact

In this second of two companion papers, we quantify for the first time the global impact on premature mortality of the inter-continental transport of fine aerosols (including sulfate, black carbon, organic carbon, and mineral dust) using the global modeling results of (Liu et al., 2009). Our objective is to estimate the number of premature mortalities in each of ten selected continental regions resulting from fine aerosols transported from foreign regions in approximately year 2000. Our simulated annual mean population-weighted (P-W) concentrations of total PM2.5 (aerosols with diameter less than 2.5 μm) are highest in East Asia (EA, 30 μg m^?3) and lowest in Australia (3.6 μg m^?3). Dust is the dominant component of PM2.5 transported between continents. We estimate global annual premature mortalities (for adults age 30 and up) due to inter-continental transport of PM2.5 to be nearly 380 thousand (K) in 2000. Approximately half of these deaths occur in the Indian subcontinent (IN), mostly due to aerosols transported from Africa and the Middle East (ME). Approximately 90K deaths globally are associated with exposure to foreign (i.e., originating outside a receptor region) non-dust PM2.5. More than half of the premature mortalities associated with foreign non-dust aerosols are due to aerosols originating from Europe (20K), ME (18K) and EA (15K); and nearly 60% of the 90K deaths occur in EA (21K), IN (19K) and Southeast Asia (16K). The lower and higher bounds of our estimated 95% confidence interval (considering uncertainties from the concentration–response relationship and simulated aerosol concentrations) are 18% and 240% of the estimated deaths, respectively, and could be larger if additional uncertainties were quantified. We find that in 2000 nearly 6.6K premature deaths in North America (NA) were associated with foreign PM2.5 exposure (5.5K from dust PM2.5). NA is least impacted by foreign PM2.5 compared to receptors on the Eurasian continent. However, the number of premature mortalities associated with foreign aerosols in NA (mostly occurring in the U.S.) is comparable to the reduction in premature mortalities expected to result from tightening the U.S. 8-h O₃ standard from 0.08 ppmv to 0.075 ppmv. International efforts to reduce inter-continental transport of fine aerosol pollution would substantially benefit public health on the Eurasian continent and would also benefit public health in the United States.     

Measured reduction of kerbside ultrafine particle number concentrations in Copenhagen

The average particle number concentration kerbside at a busy street in Copenhagen has been reduced by 27% from the period 2002–2004 to the period 2005–2007. The reduction is in the ultrafine particle range (<100 nm). Strong evidence indicates that a significant part of the reduction, especially in the size range <30 nm, is due to the transition to sulphur-free (<10 ppm) diesel fuel and petrol in Denmark at New Year 2005.     

Air pollutant concentrations near three Texas roadways,Part I: Ultrafine particles

Vehicular emitted air pollutant concentrations were studied near three types of roadways in Austin, Texas: (1) State Highway 71 (SH-71), a heavily traveled arterial highway dominated by passenger vehicles; (2) Interstate 35 (I-35), a limited access highway north of Austin in Georgetown; and (3) Farm to Market Road 973 (FM-973), a heavily traveled surface roadway dominated by truck traffic. Air pollutants examined include carbon monoxide (CO), oxides of nitrogen (NO_x), and carbonyl species in the gas-phase. In the particle phase, ultrafine particle (UFP) concentrations (diameter < 100 nm), fine particulate matter (PM_2.5, diameter < 2.5 μm) mass and carbon content and several particle-bound organics were examined. All roadways had an upwind stationary sampling location, one or two fixed downwind sample locations and a mobile monitoring platform that characterized pollutant concentrations fall-off with increased distance from the roadways. Data reported in this paper focus on UFP while other pollutants and near-roadway chemical processes are examined in a companion paper. Traffic volume, especially heavy-duty traffic, wind speed, and proximity to the road were found to be the most important factors determining UFP concentrations near the roadways. Since wind directions were not consistent during the sampling periods, distances along wind trajectories from the roadway to the sampling points were used to study the decay characteristics of UFPs. Under perpendicular wind conditions, for all studied roadway types, particle number concentrations increased dramatically moving from the upwind side to the downwind side. The elevated particle number concentrations decay exponentially with increasing distances from the roadway with sharp concentration gradients observed within 100–150 m, similar to previously reported studies. A single exponential decay curve was found to fit the data collected from all three roadways very well under perpendicular wind conditions. No consistent pattern was observed for UFPs under parallel wind conditions. However, regardless of wind conditions, particle concentrations returned to background levels within a few hundred meters of the roadway. Within measured UFP size ranges, smaller particles (6–25 nm) decayed faster than larger ones (100–300 nm). Similar decay rates were observed among UFP number, surface, and volume.     

Effects of tree size and spatial distribution on growth of ponderosa pine forests under alternative management scenarios

Forest ecosystems may be actively managed toward heterogeneous stand structures to provide both economic (e.g., wood production and carbon credits) and environmental benefits (e.g., invasive pest resistance). In order to facilitate wider adoption of possibly more sustainable forest stand structures, defining growth expectations among alternative management scenarios is crucial. To estimate the effect of tree size and spatial distributions on growth for forest structures commonly considered in uneven-aged forest stand management, large (0.2 ha+) plots were established in 14 uneven-aged ponderosa pine stands in eastern Montana. All study trees were stem-mapped and measured for diameter and 10-year sapwood and basal area increment. A generalized growth model was developed to predict both total and merchantable 10-year basal area increment for nine hypothetical stand structures [three diameter distributions (reverse-J, irregular, flat) × three spatial distributions (clumpy, partial clumpy, uniform)]. Results indicate that the size and spatial distributions of individual trees have a considerable effect on overall stand growth. The greatest total stand growth was in stands with reverse “J” shaped tree size distributions, while the greatest merchantable stand growth was in stands with “flat” diameter distributions and uniform spatial distributions. Through better comprehension of generalized uneven-aged stand growth dynamics, forest managers may better assess the effects of alternative stand structures on stand growth while providing forest stand structures that may be more resilient in a changing climate.     

How organizational motives and communications affect public trust in organizations: The case of carbon dioxide capture and storage

Preventing climate change is among the greatest environmental challenges facing the world today. Recently developed carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS) technology is an important strategy to mitigate climate change. Public trust in organizations involved in CCS technology is important for successful implementation of this technology. This work adresses how inferred organizational motives and organizational communications affect public trust in these organizations. Study 1 (N = 264) showed that Dutch citizens generally have less trust in the industrial organizations than in the environmental NGOs involved in CCS. As predicted, inferred organizational motives (organization-serving motives versus public-serving motives) accounted for this difference. In Study 2 (N = 78) and Study 3 (N = 51) we used experimental designs. Both experiments showed that organizations that communicated arguments incongruent with inferred organizational motives instigated less trust than organizations that communicated arguments congruent with inferred organizational motives. Study 3 additionally showed that communicating an incongruent and a congruent argument together diminished the negative effects of the incongruent argument. In both Study 2 and Study 3 the effect of congruency on trust was mediated by perceived honesty of the organizations.     

Predictive models of turbidity and water depth in the Doñana marshes using Landsat TM and ETM+ images

We have used Landsat-5 TM and Landsat-7 ETM+ images together with simultaneous ground-truth data at sample points in the Doñana marshes to predict water turbidity and depth from band reflectance using Generalized Additive Models. We have point samples for 12 different dates simultaneous with 7 Landsat-5 and 5 Landsat-7 overpasses. The best model for water turbidity in the marsh explained 38% of variance in ground-truth data and included as predictors band 3 (630–690 nm), band 5 (1550–1750 nm) and the ratio between bands 1 (450–520 nm) and 4 (760–900 nm). Water turbidity is easier to predict for water bodies like the Guadalquivir River and artificial ponds that are deep and not affected by bottom soil reflectance and aquatic vegetation. For the latter, a simple model using band 3 reflectance explains 78.6% of the variance. Water depth is easier to predict than turbidity. The best model for water depth in the marsh explains 78% of the variance and includes as predictors band 1, band 5, the ratio between band 2 (520–600 nm) and band 4, and bottom soil reflectance in band 4 in September, when the marsh is dry. The water turbidity and water depth models have been developed in order to reconstruct historical changes in Doñana wetlands during the last 30 years using the Landsat satellite images time series.     

Transport of fecal bacteria by boots and vehicle tires in a rural Alaskan community

People living without piped water and sewer can be at increased risk for diseases transmitted via the fecal-oral route. One rural Alaskan community that relies on hauling water into homes and sewage from homes was studied to determine the pathways of fecal contamination of drinking water and the human environment so that barriers can be established to protect health. Samples were tested for the fecal indicator, Escherichia coli, and the less specific indicator group, total coliforms. Shoes transported fecal contamination from outside to floor material inside buildings. Contamination in puddles on the road, in conjunction with contamination found on all-terrain vehicle (ATV) tires, supports vehicle traffic as a mechanism for transporting contamination from the dumpsite or other source areas to the rest of the community. The abundance of fecal bacteria transported around the community on shoes and ATV tires suggests that centralized measures for waste disposal as well as shoe removal in buildings could improve sanitation and health in the community.     

Increasing exfiltration from pervious concrete and temperature monitoring

Pervious concrete typically has an infiltration rate far exceeding any expectation of precipitation rate. The limiting factor of a retention based pervious concrete system is often defined by how quickly the underlying soil subgrade will infiltrate the water temporarily stored within the concrete and/or aggregate base. This issue is of particular importance when placing a pervious concrete system on compacted fine textured soils. This research describes the exfiltration from twelve pervious concrete plots constructed on a compacted clay soil in eastern Tennessee, USA. Several types of treatments were applied to the clay soil prior to placement of the stone aggregate base and pervious concrete in an attempt to increase the exfiltration rate, including: 1) control – no treatment; 2) trenched – soil trenched and backfilled with stone aggregate; 3) ripped – soil ripped with a subsoiler; and 4) boreholes – placement of shallow boreholes backfilled with sand. The average exfiltration rates were 0.8 cm d⁻¹ (control), 4.6 cm d⁻¹ (borehole), 10.0 cm d⁻¹ (ripped), and 25.8 cm d⁻¹ (trenched). The trenched treatment exfiltrated fastest, followed by the ripped and then the borehole treatments, although the ripped and borehole treatments were not different from one another at the 5% level of significance. The internal temperature of the pervious concrete and aggregate base was monitored throughout the winter of 2006–2007. Although the temperature of the pervious concrete dropped below freezing 24 times, freezing concrete temperatures never coincided with free water being present in the large pervious concrete pores. The coldest recorded air temperature was −9.9 °C, and the corresponding coldest recorded pervious concrete temperature was −7.1 °C. The temperature of the pervious concrete lagged diurnal air temperature changes and was generally buffered in amplitude, particularly when free water was present since the addition of water increases the thermal capacity of the pervious concrete greatly. The temperature of the aggregate base was further buffered to diurnal changes, and no freezing temperatures were recorded.