APPLICATION OF KRIGING TO ESTIMATING MEAN ANNUAL PRECIPITATION IN A REGION OF OROGRAPHIC INFLUENCE1

ABSTRACT: Estimates of mean annual precipitation (MAP) over areas are the starting point for all computations of water and chemical balances for drainage basins and surface water bodies. Any errors in the estimates of MAP are propagated through the balance computations. These errors can be due to: (1) failures of individual gages to collect the amount of precpitation that actually falls; (2) operator errors; and (3) failure of the raingage network to adequately sample the region of interest. This paper attempts to evaluate the last of these types of error by applying kriging in two different approaches to estimating MAP in New Hampshire and Vermont, USA. The data base is the 1951–1980 normal precipitation at 120 raingages in the two states and in adjacent portions of bordering states and provinces. In the first approach, kriging is applied directly to the MAP values, while in the second, kriging is applied to a “precipitation delivery factor” that represents the MAP with the orographic effect removed. The first approach gives slightly better kriged estimates of MAP at seven validation stations that were not included in the original analysis, but results in an error surface that is highly contorted and in larger maximum errors over most of the region. The second approach had a considerably smoother error surface and, thus, is generally preferable as a basis for point and areal estimates of MAP. MAP estimates in the region have 95 percent confidence intervals of about 20 cm/yr at low and moderate elevations, and up to 35 cm/yr at high elevations. These uncertainties amount to about 20 percent of estimated MAP values.     

Evaluation of Potential Molecular Markers for Urban Stormwater Runoff

Source specificity and persistence of several sulfur-polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (S-PAHs), nitro-PAHs (N-PAHs), and triphenylene were examined via analyses of stormwater runoff and wastewater effluent samples and spiked samples upon exposure to sunlight. Samples were collected during the 1997/1998 wet weather season from two major storm channels and four major wastewater treatment plants in southern California. Among the target compounds examined, 2-(4-morpholinyl)benzothiazole, dibenzothiophene, and triphenylene/chrysene were detected in storm runoff only. However, 2-(4-morpholinyl)benzothiazole appeared to degrade rapidly in seawater and sediment after sunlight exposure, which might impede its use as a runoff indicator. Dibenzothiophene and triphenylene also degraded quickly in sunlight-exposed seawater samples, but remained fairly abundant in sediments after six months of exposure to sunlight. They are by far the most promising candidates of urban runoff markers based on the criteria of abundance, source specificity, and persistence, although more research efforts are needed to ensure that no other sources would also contribute significantly to their presence in the aquatic environment.     

Assessment of Flood Losses with Household Responses: Agent-Based Simulation in an Urban Catchment Area

Densely populated coastal urban areas are often exposed to multiple hazards, in particular floods and storms. Flood defenses and other engineering measures contribute to the mitigation of flood hazards, but a holistic approach to flood risk management should consider other interventions from the human side, including warning information, adaptive behavior, people/property evacuation, and the multilateral relief in local communities. There are few simulation approaches to consider these factors, and these typically focus on collective human actions. This paper presents an agent-based model that simulates flood response preferences and actions taken within individual households to reduce flood losses. The model implements a human response framework in which agents assess different flood scenarios according to warning information and decide whether and how much they invest in response measures to reduce potential inundation damages. A case study has been carried out in the Ng Tung River basin, an urbanized watershed in northern Hong Kong. Adopting a digital elevation model (DEM) as the modeling environment and a building map of household locations in the case area, the model considers the characteristics of households and the flood response behavior of their occupants. We found that property value, warning information, and storm conditions all influence household losses, with downstream and high density areas being particularly vulnerable. Results further indicate (i) that a flood warning system, which provides timely, accurate, and broad coverage rainstorm warning, can reduce flood losses by 30–40%; and (ii) to reduce losses, it is more effective and cheaper to invest early in response measures than late actions. This dynamic agent-based modeling approach is an innovative attempt to quantify and model the role of human responses in flood loss assessments. The model is demonstrated being useful for analyzing household scale flood losses and responses and it has the potential to contribute to flood emergency planning resource allocation in pluvial flood incidents.     

Documenting lemming population change in the Arctic: Can we detect trends?

Lemmings are a key component of tundra food webs and changes in their dynamics can affect the whole ecosystem. We present a comprehensive overview of lemming monitoring and research activities, and assess recent trends in lemming abundance across the circumpolar Arctic. Since 2000, lemmings have been monitored at 49 sites of which 38 are still active. The sites were not evenly distributed with notably Russia and high Arctic Canada underrepresented. Abundance was monitored at all sites, but methods and levels of precision varied greatly. Other important attributes such as health, genetic diversity and potential drivers of population change, were often not monitored. There was no evidence that lemming populations were decreasing in general, although a negative trend was detected for low arctic populations sympatric with voles. To keep the pace of arctic change, we recommend maintaining long-term programmes while harmonizing methods, improving spatial coverage and integrating an ecosystem perspective.     

Determinants of brominated flame retardants in breast milk from a large scale Norwegian study

Brominated flame retardants (BFRs), particularly polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs), are widely present in human populations. In order to investigate human exposure pathways and associations with socioeconomic and lifestyle factors, 393 breast milk samples from mothers living in various regions throughout Norway were analyzed. Up to ten PBDE congeners were measured in all the samples, hexabromocyclododecane (HBCD) and BDE-209 in subsets of 310 and 46, respectively. The median concentrations of the sum of the seven most prominent PBDEs (BDE-28, 47, 99, 100, 153, 154 and 183), BDE-209 and HBCD were 2.1, 0.32 and 0.86 ng/g lipids, respectively. These concentrations are comparable to the levels generally observed in human populations in Europe. The frequency distributions were quite skewed with long tails towards higher concentrations. Maternal age, parity, education, having a cohabitant employed as electrician, and ventilation were factors significantly associated with some of the BFRs, although these factors only explained a small amount of the variability (R² 0.04–0.16). The mothers' diet was not found to influence the breast milk PBDE and HBCD levels. Our results show that sources other than the diet are important for the variability seen in breast milk BFR concentrations and that exposure from the indoor atmosphere should be emphasized in future studies.     

Smallholder Farms as Stepping Stone Corridors for Crop-Raiding Elephant in Northern Tanzania: Integration of Bayesian Expert System and Network Simulator

Crop-raiding elephants affect local livelihoods, undermining conservation efforts. Yet, crop-raiding patterns are poorly understood, making prediction and protection difficult. We hypothesized that raiding elephants use corridors between daytime refuges and farmland. Elephant counts, crop-raiding records, household surveys, Bayesian expert system, and least-cost path simulation were used to predict four alternative categories of daily corridors: (1) footpaths, (2) dry river beds, (3) stepping stones along scattered small farms, and (4) trajectories of shortest distance to refuges. The corridor alignments were compared in terms of their minimum cumulative resistance to elephant movement and related to crop-raiding zones quantified by a kernel density function. The “stepping stone” corridors predicted the crop-raiding patterns. Elephant presence was confirmed along these corridors, demonstrating that small farms located between refuges and contiguous farmland increase habitat connectivity for elephant. Our analysis successfully predicted elephant occurrence in farmland where daytime counts failed to detect nocturnal presence. These results have conservation management implications.     

Environmental impact of aquaculture and countermeasures to aquaculture pollution in China

GOAL, SCOPE AND BACKGROUND: Aquaculture activities are well known to be the major contributor to the increasing level of organic waste and toxic compound in the aquaculture industry. Along with the development of intensive aquaculture in China, concerns are evoked about the possible effects of ever-increasing aquaculture waste both on productivity inside the aquaculture system and on the ambient aquatic ecosystem. Therefore, it is apparent that appropriate waste treatment processes are needed for sustaining aquaculture development. This review aims at identifying the current status of aquaculture and aquaculture waste production in China. MAIN FEATURES: China is the world's largest fishery nation in terms of total seafood production volume, a position it has maintained continuously since 1990. Freshwater aquaculture is a major part of the Chinese fishery industry. Marine aquaculture in China consists of both land-based and offshore aquaculture, with the latter mostly operated in shallow seas, mud flats and protected bays. The environmental impacts of aquaculture are also striking. RESULTS: Case studies on pollution hot spots caused by aquaculture have been introduced. The quality and quantity of waste from aquaculture depends mainly on culture system characteristics and the choice of species, but also on feed quality and management. Wastewater without treatment, if continuously discharged into the aquatic environment, could result in remarkable elevation of the total organic matter contents and cause considerable economy lost. Waste treatments can be mainly classified into three categories: physical, chemical and biological methods. DISCUSSION: The environmental impacts of different aquaculture species are not the same. New waste treatments are introduced as references for the potential development of the waste treatment system in China. The most appropriate waste treatment system for each site should be selected according to the sites' conditions and financial status as well as by weighing the advantages and disadvantages of each system. Strategies and perspectives for sustainable aquaculture development are proposed, with the emphasis on environmental protection. CONCLUSIONS: Negative effects of waste from aquaculture to aquatic environment are increasingly recognized, though they were just a small proportion to land-based pollutants. Properly planned use of aquaculture waste alleviates water pollution problems and not only conserves valuable water resources but also takes advantage of the nutrients contained in effluent. It is highly demanding to develop sustainable aquaculture which keeps stocking density and pollution loadings under environmental capacity. RECOMMENDATIONS AND PERSPECTIVES: The traditional procedures for aquaculture waste treatment, mainly based on physical and chemical means, should be overcome by more site-specific approaches, taking into account the characteristics and resistibility of the aquatic environment. Further research needs to improve or optimize the current methods of wastewater treatment and reuse. Proposed new treatment technology should evaluate their feasibility at a larger scale for practical application.     

Eutrophication of mangroves linked to depletion of foliar and soil base cations

There is growing concern that increasing eutrophication causes degradation of coastal ecosystems. Studies in terrestrial ecosystems have shown that increasing the concentration of nitrogen in soils contributes to the acidification process, which leads to leaching of base cations. To test the effects of eutrophication on the availability of base cations in mangroves, we compared paired leaf and soil nutrient levels sampled in Nypa fruticans and Rhizophora spp. on a severely disturbed, i.e. nutrient loaded, site (Mahakam delta) with samples from an undisturbed, near-pristine site (Berau delta) in East Kalimantan, Indonesia. The findings indicate that under pristine conditions, the availability of base cations in mangrove soils is determined largely by salinity. Anthropogenic disturbances on the Mahakam site have resulted in eutrophication, which is related to lower levels of foliar and soil base cations. Path analysis suggests that increasing soil nitrogen reduces soil pH, which in turn reduces the levels of foliar and soil base cations in mangroves.     

Monitoring of ozone in selected forest ecosystems in Southern Carpathian and Romanian Intensive Monitoring Network (level II)

In the Romanian forest ecosystems, the first measurements of ambient ozone (O(3)) concentrations started in 1997 in 6 of 26 locations established in a trans-Carpathian Network. Furthermore, three additional ozone and other phytotoxic pollutant (NO(x), SO(2) and NH(3)) monitoring networks were installed in 2000 in Retezat (11 locations) and during 2006-2009 in Bucegi-Piatra Craiului (22 locations) LTER Sites. Since 2007, in four Intensive Forest Monitoring plots (level II), measurements of ozone concentrations were developed. Measurements were made using the Ogawa? passive sampler system during the growing season (April to October). In the Bucegi LTER Site, the seasonal means of 42.5-47.2 ppb in 2006 and 2008 were higher than those determined in the Carpathian Network in the 1997-1999 period (39.0-42.0 ppb), while the 2009 mean of 40.0 ppb was in the range of these values. The O(3) levels were slightly higher than those measured in Retezat LTER Site. In the Intensive Forest Monitoring Network (level II), no significant differences in ozone concentrations between individual core plots were noticed. The seasonal means for each plot range between 36.8 and 49.8 ppb in 2008. An influence of ozone concentrations on crown condition and tree volume growth was not determined.     

Chemical speciation in mining affected waters: the case study of Asarel-Medet mine

The inorganic chemical species in Maresh and Luda Yana rivers affected by the Cu– Mo Asarel-Medet mine, Bulgaria were determined during a low-flow and a high-flow period. The mining activities, the weathering and the oxidation processes strongly influenced the physicochemical processes in the whole water system. The main pollution source was a small lake receiving the acid effluents of the mining activities. High levels of SO₄ ^2???, Cu, Mg, Al, Mn and Fe were determined at the mining polluted and affected stations. Cu^2?+? and CuCO₃ ⁰ species (1:1) were present in the reference waters and Cu^2?+? and CuSO₄ ⁰ species (1:1) in the polluted and affected waters; Cu^2?+? species was dominating downstream. Me^2?+? followed by $\rm{MeSO}_{4}^{\kern3pt{0}}$ (Me = Mn, Zn, Cd and Pb), $\rm{PbCO}_{3}^{\kern3pt{0}}$ and $\rm{PbHCO}_{3}^{\kern3pt{+}}$ species as well as $\rm{Fe(OH)}_{2}^{\kern3pt{+}}$ , $\rm{Al(OH)}_{4}^{\kern3pt{-}}$ , $\rm{Al(OH)}_{2}^{\kern3pt{+}}$ , $\rm{Al(OH)}_{3}^{\kern3pt{0}}$ were prevailing in the system. $\rm{MeSO}_{4}^{\kern3pt{+}}$ and $\rm{Me(SO}_{4})_{2}^{\kern3pt{-}}$ (Me = Fe, Al), $\rm{Me(SO}_{4})_{2}^{\kern3pt{2-}}$ (Me = Zn, Cd and Pb), $\rm{Me(SO}_{4})_{3}^{\kern3pt{4-}}$ (Me = Zn, Cd) and $\rm{Cd(SO}_{4})_{4}^{\kern3pt{6-}}$ species polluted and affected waters. The major elements K and Na were mainly Me^?+? species, whereas Ca and Mg were Me^2?+? and $\rm{MeSO}_{4}^{\kern3pt{0}}$ species in different ratios. The concentration of concentration of $\rm{NO}_{2}^{\kern3pt{-}}$ , $\rm{NO}_{3}^{\kern3pt{-}}$ and $\rm{NH}_{4}^{\kern3pt{+}}$ species as well as complex phosphorous species such as H₂ $\rm{PO}_{4}^{\kern3pt{-}}$ , $\rm{FeHPO}_{4}^{\kern3pt{+}}$ , $\rm{HPO}_{4}^{\kern4pt{2-}}$ , $\rm{CaPO}_{4}^{\kern3pt{-}}$ , $\rm{CaHPO}_{4}^{\kern3pt{0}}$ and $\rm{MgHPO}_{4}^{\kern3pt{0}}$ were also calculated. The trace element concentrations decreased downstream due to dilution, sorption processes and precipitation, but the percentage of free metal species, which are more toxic, increased. An exception was iron and aluminum of which the dominant hydroxy colloidal and sulphate species were easily incorporated into the suspended phase.