A proposed Multi Criteria Analysis decision support tool for international environmental policy issues: a pilot application to emissions control in the international aviation sector

Policy making at the level of international environmental problems appears to lack a transparent, multi criteria based, decision support ‘tool’. This is due mainly to the highly political, volatile, and contextual nature of issues at this level. The environmental problem of how to regulate emissions from international civil aviation due to their transboundary nature, and the participation of international and domestic players, makes it a ‘wicked’ international environmental problem where policy making has proved problematic. This problem has been used as the basis for developing and pilot testing a tool for contributing to international policymaking, the Multi Criteria Decision Support System (MCDSS). This tool is based on simplifying and integrating key components of Multi Criteria Analysis with a Decision Support System. A preliminary application of the tool explored three options for progressing the reduction of aviation emissions. Testing was based on the allocation of weights to environmental, social, economic and institutional categories, which were each then internally weighted to reflect key criteria in the policy process. Finally, likely performances of each option, against the criteria, were evaluated against Likert scale measures. The outputs from each of these steps were combined to generate a summed best policy option. Conclusions have been drawn and they indicate that the tool is potentially useful especially in the initial stages of policy development. The MCDSS is not an alternative to the international policy process, but rather complements, and makes explicit key tradeoffs in, that process.     

MODELKEY

The EU Water Framework Directive (WFD) requires the achievement of good ecological and chemical status in European river basins. However, evidence is increasing that a majority of European water bodies will not achieve this goal. Nutrient emissions and related eutrophication together with hydromorphological alterations have been suggested as the major driving forces of this insufficient ecological status. MODELKEY (511237 GOCE, FP6) provides strong evidence that toxic chemicals also affect the ecological status of European rivers. This was demonstrated in the case study rivers Elbe, Scheldt and Llobregat on different scales. This paper summarises key findings of MODELKEY including recommendations for WFD implementation. We ? provide evidence of toxic stress in aquatic ecosystems, ? provide evidence that impairment of ecological status results from impact of multiple stressors, ? suggest a tiered approach to assess impact of chemicals on ecological status, ? suggest a new approach for deriving candidate compounds for monitoring and prioritisation, ? call for consideration of bioavailability and bioaccumulation in chemical status assessments, ? suggest improvements for WFD water quality monitoring programmes, ? provide new integrated tools for basin-scale risk assessment and decision making, ? developed a Decision Support System to support river basin management. These key results will be presented in a series of ten integrated sections; for the scientific details please refer to publications listed on the MODELKEY website (http://www.modelkey.org/). This article also looks beyond MODELKEY and proposes a combination of MODELKEY diagnostic tools with recent ecological methods to further improve effectiveness of river basin management.