Carbon mitigation potential and costs of forestry options in Brazil,China, India,Indonesia, Mexico,the Philippines and Tanzania

This paper summarizes studies of carbon (C) mitigation potential and costs of about 40 forestry options in seven developing countries. Each study uses the same methodological approach – Comprehensive Mitigation Assessment Process (COMAP) – to estimate the above parameters between 2000 and 2030. The approach requires the projection of baseline and mitigation land-use scenarios. Coupled with data on a per ha basis on C sequestration or avoidance, and costs and benefits, it allows the estimation of monetary benefit per Mg C, and the total costs and carbon potential. The results show that about half (3.0 Pg C) the cumulative mitigation potential of 6.2 Petagram (Pg) C between 2000 and 2030 in the seven countries (about 200× 10⁶ Mg C yr^-1) could be achieved at a negative cost and the remainder at costs ranging up to $100 Mg C^-1. About 5 Pg C could be achieved, at a cost less than $20 per Mg C. Negative cost potential indicates that non-carbon revenue is sufficient to offset direct costs of these options. The achievable potential is likely to be smaller, however, due to market, institutional, and sociocultural barriers that can delay or prevent the implementation of the analyzed options.     

Groundwater pollution due to discharge of tannery effluents in Upper Palar basin, Tamilnadu, India: an assessment through mass transport modeling

The groundwater regime in Upper Palar basin, Tamilnadu has been highly contaminated in several locations due to discharge of effluents from a large number of tanneries. At some places total dissolved solids (TDS) concentration in groundwater was found as high as 8000 mg/l. Transmissivity and storativity of the regional aquifer were estimated at a few locations. The porosity and dispersivity values were not determined in the field. These parameters were assumed based on data available for similar geological formations elsewhere. The aquifer conceptualization thus arrived at formed the basis of a numerical groundwater flow model which was constructed using the finite difference method. The flow model was calibrated for steady state and then for transient condition for the period of 1984-92. The computed heads and calibrated parameters of the flow model were used to compute groundwater velocities. The migration of contaminants for a 20 year period was computed using the hydraulic heads and effective porosity value in a pathline model using FLOWPATH software. Mass transport model was constructed using Method of Characteristics (MOC) computer code in a separate model. The seepage rate of effluent is assumed at a rate of 30% of that discharged on the surface. The mass concentration of solute in the effluent reaching the water table was assumed as 40%, the same as in the surface effluent. The mass transport model was calibrated for a 20 year period. Prediction of contaminant migration from different clusters in the basin was analyzed. The prediction results indicated elevated TDS concentration of more than 4000 mg/l from most clusters. Also the area of the contaminated zone is likely to double in 20 years from contaminated zone of 1992.     

Empirical likelihood confidence intervals for adaptive cluster sampling

Adaptive cluster sampling (ACS) is an efficient sampling design for estimating parameters of rare and clustered populations. It is widely used in ecological research. The modified Hansen-Hurwitz (HH) and Horvitz-Thompson (HT) estimators based on small samples under ACS have often highly skewed distributions. In such situations, confidence intervals based on traditional normal approximation can lead to unsatisfactory results, with poor coverage properties. Christman and Pontius (Biometrics 56:503–510, 2000) showed that bootstrap percentile methods are appropriate for constructing confidence intervals from the HH estimator. But Perez and Pontius (J Stat Comput Simul 76:755–764, 2006) showed that bootstrap confidence intervals from the HT estimator are even worse than the normal approximation confidence intervals. In this article, we consider two pseudo empirical likelihood functions under the ACS design. One leads to the HH estimator and the other leads to a HT type estimator known as the Hájek estimator. Based on these two empirical likelihood functions, we derive confidence intervals for the population mean. Using a simulation study, we show that the confidence intervals obtained from the first EL function perform as good as the bootstrap confidence intervals from the HH estimator but the confidence intervals obtained from the second EL function perform much better than the bootstrap confidence intervals from the HT estimator, in terms of coverage rate.     

Serum profiles of PCDDs and PCDFs, in individuals near the Escambia Wood Treating Company Superfund site in Pensacola, FL

The Escambia Wood Treating Company (ETC) Superfund site, Pensacola, FL, is contaminated with polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins and polychlorinated dibenzofurans (PCDD/F), benzo(a)pyrene, lead and arsenic from pentachlorophenol (PCP), creosote, and other compounds used to treat utility poles and foundation pilings. Although ETC's operations ceased in 1982, soils in the areas surrounding the facility continue to exhibit elevated levels of contaminants attributable to ETC operations. In July 2000, individuals who may have been affected by contamination from the ETC site, including current and former residents and former workers and their household members were invited to participate in a study, which included a health and exposure history and routine blood analysis. We also conducted a toxicological health evaluation of a subset of these eligible workers/residents by analyzing serum levels of 17 PCDD/F congeners. Members of the ETC cohort exhibited elevated serum PCDD/F relative to the general population, and congener profiles in members of the cohort reflected patterns commonly observed in persons exposed to PCP. Hypertension prevalence in the cohort was found to correlate with PCDD/F levels, although no other significant relationships were identified with monitored health indices.     

Response of lake sediments to changes in trace metal emission from the smelters at Sudbury, Ontario

Historical records preserved in sediments show that the lakes are extremely sensitive to metal emissions from the smelters in the Sudbury basin. From the observed quick response, a strong capacity for rapid recovery (deacidification) of acid-stressed lakes in the area is deduced. The study thus emphasises the need for curtailing the emissions of acidic and acidifying substances as a critical step in reducing lake acidification as well as in rehabilitating many of the afflicted lakes.     

Rainfall trends in twentieth century over Kerala,India

Attempts were made to study temporal variation in monthly, seasonal and annual rainfall over Kerala, India, during the period from 1871 to 2005. Longterm changes in rainfall determined by Man-Kendall rank statistics and linear trend. The analysis revealed significant decrease in southwest monsoon rainfall while increase in post-monsoon season over the State of Kerala which is popularly known as the “Gateway of summer monsoon”. Rainfall during winter and summer seasons showed insignificant increasing trend. Rainfall during June and July showed significant decreasing trend while increasing trend in January, February and April. Hydel power generation and water availability during summer months are the concern in the State due to rainfall decline in June and July, which are the rainiest months. At the same time, majority of plantation crops are likely to benefit due to increase in rainfall during the post-monsoon season if they are stable and prolonged.     

Is there a correlation between the number of mutagens and the number of nonmutagens in an environmental sample?

We have adapted a procedure which was developed for studying the correlations in the distribution of genetic factors, such as sex ratios in siblings, to obtain estimates of the correlation between the number of mutagens and the number of nonmutagens in a sample. Positive correlations with correlation coefficients in excess of 0.8 were obtained. The high correlation suggests that it is possible to estimate the number of mutagens in samples with N > 100 compounds as (0.064 ± 0.01) N.