Linking linear programming and spatial simulation models to predict landscape effects of forest management alternatives

Forest management planners require analytical tools to assess the effects of alternative strategies on the sometimes disparate benefits from forests such as timber production and wildlife habitat. We assessed the spatial patterns of alternative management strategies by linking two models that were developed for different purposes. We used a linear programming model (Spectrum) to optimize timber harvest schedules, then a simulation model (HARVEST) to project those schedules in a spatially explicit way and produce maps from which the spatial pattern of habitat could be calculated. We demonstrated the power of this approach by evaluating alternative plans developed for a national forest plan revision in Wisconsin, USA. The amount of forest interior habitat was inversely related to the amount of timber cut, and increased under the alternatives compared to the current plan. The amount of edge habitat was positively related to the amount of timber cut, and increased under all alternatives. The amount of mature northern hardwood interior and edge habitat increased for all alternatives, but mature pine habitat area varied. Mature age classes of all forest types increased, and young classes decreased under all alternatives. The average size of patches (defined by age class) generally decreased. These results are consistent with the design goals of each of the alternatives, but reveal that the spatial differences among the alternatives are modest. These complementary models are valuable for quantifying and comparing the spatial effects of alternative management strategies.     

Analysis of the life cycle of non-ferrous minerals

This paper examines the utility of a methodology for forecasting the lifecycle of metals obtained from non-renewable resources which are subject to high rates of growth in consumption. A rate method is used, subject to arbitrarily chosen upper limits of reserves. One general pattern which emerges is that extraction of the resource will tend to rise exponentially in face of falling rate of discovery of new reserves; a degree of ‘overshoot’ occurs. In other words, an economy might continue to be geared to a given non-renewable resource with a degree of optimism about reserve life being maintained until well after it is justifiable and there may be inadequate time for the price mechanism alone to operate to generate development of substitutes, and for the introduction of intensive recycle technology or greater selectivity and economies in the use of the original resource.It is concluded that the methodology used here could be useful to study the possible forms of lifecycles for the base metals.     

Cesium migration in Hanford sediment: a multisite cation exchange model based on laboratory transport experiments

Cs+ transport experiments carried out in columns packed with uncontaminated Hanford formation sediment from the SX tank farm provide strong support for the use of a multisite, multicomponent cation exchange model to describe Cs+ migration in the Hanford vadose zone. The experimental results indicate a strong dependence of the effective Cs+ Kd on the concentrations of other cations, including Na+ that is present at high to extremely high concentrations in fluids leaking from the Hanford SX tanks. A strong dependence of the Cs+ Kd on the aqueous Cs+ concentration is also apparent, with retardation of Cs+ increasing from a value of 41 at a Cs+ concentration of 10(-4) M in the feed solution to as much as 282 at a Cs+ concentration of 5x10(-7) M, all in a background of 1 M NaNO3. The total cation exchange capacity (CEC) of the Hanford sediment was determined using 22Na isotopic equilibrium exchange in a flow-through column experiment. The value for the CEC of 120 microeq/g determined with this method is compatible with a value of 121.9 microeq/g determined by multi-cation elution. While two distinct exchange sites were proposed by Zachara et al. [Geochim. Cosmochim. Acta 66 (2002) 193] based on binary batch exchange experiments, a third site is proposed in this study to improve the fit of the Cs+-Na+ and Cs+-Ca+ exchange data and to capture self-sharpened Cs+ breakthrough curves at low concentrations of Cs+. Two of the proposed exchange sites represent frayed edge sites (FES) on weathered micas and constitute 0.02% and 0.22% of the total CEC. Both of the FES show a very strong selectivity for Cs+ over Na+ (K(Na-Cs)=10(7.22) and 10(4.93), respectively). The third site, accounting for over 99% of the total CEC, is associated with planar sites on expansible clays and shows a smaller Na+-Cs+ selectivity coefficient of 10(1.99). Parameters derived from a fit of binary batch experiments alone tend to under predict Cs+ retardation in the column experiments. The transport experiments indicate 72-90% of the Cs+ sorbed in experiments targeting exchange on FES was desorbed over a 10- and 24-day period, respectively. At high Cs+ concentrations, where sorption is controlled primarily by exchange on planar sites, 95% of the Cs+ desorption was desorbed. Most of the difficulty in desorbing Cs+ from FES is a result of the extremely high selectivity of these sites for Cs+, although truly irreversible sorption as high as 23% was suggested in one experiment. The conclusion that Cs+ exchange is largely reversible in a thermodynamic sense is supported by the ability to match Cs+ desorption curves almost quantitatively with an equilibrium reactive transport simulation. The model for Cs+ retardation developed here qualitatively explains the behavior of Cs+ in the Hanford vadose zone underneath a variety of leaking tanks with differing salt concentrations. The high selectivity of FES for Cs+ implies that future desorption and migration is very unlikely to occur under natural recharge conditions.     

Assessing potential bioavailability of metals in sediments: A proposed approach

Due to anthropogenic inputs, elevated concentrations of metals frequently occur in aquatic sediments. In order to make defensible estimates of the potential risk of metals in sediments and/or develop sediment quality criteria for metals, it is essential to identify that fraction of the total metal in the sediments that is bioavailable. Studies with a variety of benthic invertebrates indicate that interstitial (pore) water concentrations of metals correspond very well with the bioavailability of metals in test sediments. Many factors may influence pore water concentrations of metals; however, in anaerobic sediments a key phase controlling partitioning of several cationic metals (cadmium, nickel, lead, zinc, copper) into pore water is acid volatile sulfide (AVS). In this paper, we present an overview of the technical basis for predicting bioavailability of cationic metals to benthic organisms based on pore water metal concentrations and metal-AVS relationships. Included are discussions of the advantages and limitations of metal bioavailability predictions based on these parameters, relative both to site-specific assessments and the development of sediment quality criteria.     

Relationships between psychological climate perceptions and work outcomes: a meta‐analytic review

In this study, meta‐analytic procedures were used to examine the relationships between individual‐level (psychological) climate perceptions and work outcomes such as employee attitudes, psychological well‐being, motivation, and performance. Our review of the literature generated 121 independent samples in which climate perceptions were measured and analyzed at the individual level. These studies document considerable confusion regarding the constructs of psychological climate, organizational climate, and organizational culture and reveal a need for researchers to use terminology that is consistent with their level of measurement, theory, and analysis. Our meta‐analytic findings indicate that psychological climate, operationalized as individuals' perceptions of their work environment, does have significant relationships with individuals' work attitudes, motivation, and performance. Structural equation modeling analyses of the meta‐analytic correlation matrix indicated that the relationships of psychological climate with employee motivation and performance are fully mediated by employees' work attitudes. We also found that the James and James ( 1989 ) PC_g model could be extended to predict the impact of work environment perceptions on employee attitudes, motivation, and performance. Despite the number of published individual‐level climate studies that we found, there is a need for more research using standardized measures so as to enable analyses of the organizational and contextual factors that might moderate the effects of psychological climate perceptions. Finally, we argue for a molar theory of psychological climate that is rooted in the psychological processes by which individuals make meaning or their work experiences. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A discursive review of the textual use of ‘trapped’ in environmental migration studies: The conceptual birth and troubled teenage years of trapped populations

First mooted in 2011, the concept of Trapped Populations referring to people unable to move from environmentally high-risk areas broadened the study of human responses to environmental change. While a seemingly straightforward concept, the underlying discourses around the reasons for being ‘trapped’, and the language describing the concept have profound influences on the way in which policy and practice approaches the needs of populations at risk from environmental stresses and shocks. In this article, we apply a Critical Discourse Analysis to the academic literature on the subject to reveal some of the assumptions implicit within discussing ‘trapped’ populations. The analysis reveals a dominant school of thought that assisted migration, relocation, and resettlement in the face of climate change are potentially effective adaptation strategies along a gradient of migrant agency and governance.     

Landscape assessment of side channel plugs and associated cumulative side channel attrition across a large river floodplain

Determining the influences of anthropogenic perturbations on side channel dynamics in large rivers is important from both assessment and monitoring perspectives because side channels provide critical habitat to numerous aquatic species. Side channel extents are decreasing in large rivers worldwide. Although riprap and other linear structures have been shown to reduce side channel extents in large rivers, we hypothesized that small “anthropogenic plugs” (flow obstructions such as dikes or berms) across side channels modify whole-river geomorphology via accelerating side channel senescence. To test this hypothesis, we conducted a geospatial assessment, comparing digitized side channel areas from aerial photographs taken during the 1950s and 2001 along 512 km of the Yellowstone River floodplain. We identified longitudinal patterns of side channel recruitment (created/enlarged side channels) and side channel attrition (destroyed/senesced side channels) across n?=?17 river sections within which channels were actively migrating. We related areal measures of recruitment and attrition to the density of anthropogenic side channel plugs across river sections. Consistent with our hypothesis, a positive spatial relationship existed between the density of anthropogenic plugs and side channel attrition, but no relationship existed between plug density and side channel recruitment. Our work highlights important linkages among side channel plugs and the persistence and restoration of side channels across floodplain landscapes. Specifically, management of small plugs represents a low-cost, high-benefit restoration opportunity to facilitate scouring flows in side channels to enable the persistence of these habitats over time.     

The role of humic non-exchangeable binding in the promotion of metal ion transport in groundwaters in the environment

Metal ions form strong complexes with humic substances. When the metal ion is first complexed by humic material, it is bound in an 'exchangeable' mode. The metal ion in this fraction is strongly bound, however, if the metal-humic complex encounters a stronger binding site on a surface, then the metal ion may dissociate from the humic substance and be immobilised. However, over time, exchangeably-bound metal may transfer to a 'non-exchangeable' mode. Transfer into this mode and dissociation from it are slow, regardless of the strength of the competing sink, and so immobilisation may be hindered. A series of coupled chemical transport calculations has been performed to investigate the likely effects of non-exchangeable binding upon the transport of metal ions in the environment. The calculations show that metal in the non-exchangeable mode will have a significantly higher mobility than that in the exchangeable mode. The critical factor is the ratio of the non-exchangeable first-order dissociation rate constant and the residence time in the groundwater column, metal ion mobility increasing with decreasing rate constant. A second series of calculations has investigated the effect of the sorption to surfaces of humic/metal complexes on the transport of the non-exchangeably bound metal. It was found that such sorption may reduce mobility, depending upon the humic fraction to which the metal ion is bound. For the more weakly sorbing humic fractions, under ambient conditions (humic concentration etc.) the non-exchangeable fraction may still transport significantly. However, for the more strongly sorbed fractions, the non-exchangeable fraction has little effect upon mobility. In addition to direct retardation, sorption also increases the residence time of the non-exchangeable fraction, giving more time for dissociation and immobilisation. The non-exchangeable dissociation reaction, and the sorption reaction have been classified in terms of two Damkohler numbers, which can be used to determine the importance of chemical kinetics during transport calculations. These numbers have been used to develop a set of rules that determine when full chemical kinetic calculations are required for a reliable prediction, and when equilibrium may be assumed, or when the reactions are sufficiently slow that they may be ignored completely.