Estimating the variance in before-after studies

Problem

To simplify the computation of the variance in before-after studies, it is generally assumed that the observed crash data for each entity (or observation) are Poisson distributed. Given the characteristics of this distribution, the observed value (x_i) for each entity is implicitly made equal to its variance. However, the variance should be estimated using the conditional properties of this observed value (defined as a random variable), that is, f(x_i|μ_i), since the mean of the observed value is in fact unknown.

Method

Parametric and non-parametric bootstrap methods were investigated to evaluate the conditional assumption using simulated and observed data.

Results

The results of this study show that observed data should not be used as a substitute for the variance, even if the entities are assumed to be Poisson distributed. Consequently, the estimated variance for the parameters under study in traditional before-after studies is likely to be underestimated.

Conclusions

The proposed methods offer more accurate approaches for estimating the variance in before-after studies.     

Post‐tsunami relocation of fisher settlements in South Asia: evidence from the Coromandel Coast,India

The tsunami that struck the coasts of India on 26 December 2004 resulted in the large‐scale destruction of fisher habitations. The post‐tsunami rehabilitation effort in Tamil Nadu was directed towards relocating fisher settlements in the interior. This paper discusses the outcomes of a study on the social effects of relocation in a sample of nine communities along the Coromandel Coast. It concludes that, although the participation of fishing communities in house design and in allocation procedures has been limited, many fisher households are satisfied with the quality of the facilities. The distance of the new settlements to the shore, however, is regarded as an impediment to engaging in the fishing profession, and many fishers are actually moving back to their old locations. This raises questions as to the direction of coastal zone policy in India, as well as to the weight accorded to safety (and other coastal development interests) vis‐à‐vis the livelihood needs of fishers.     

Female preference for symmetry in computer-animated three-spined sticklebacks,<Emphasis Type="Italic"> Gasterosteus aculeatus</Emphasis>

Fluctuating asymmetries are subtle random deviations from perfect symmetry in bilateral traits caused by the inability of individuals to buffer their development against the disruptive effects of genetic and environmental stresses. The degree of asymmetry of secondary sexual characters is supposed to convey information about a male's phenotypic and/or genetic quality, and females may thus be expected to use bilateral symmetry as a cue in mate choice. We independently and simultaneously manipulated the length and the relative symmetry of the pelvic spines of computer-animated three-spined sticklebacks, Gasterosteus aculeatus. In all mate choice tests involving two male models differing in spine symmetry, females preferred the symmetric model, irrespective of spine length, though only significantly so when both male models had short spines. Females did not significantly discriminate between male models differing in spine length alone. The preference for symmetry was stronger the higher the females' physical condition. Our study demonstrates that female sticklebacks master the perceptual abilities required to discriminate between potential mates basing exclusively on small length differences between paired structures, and provides experimental evidence that spine symmetry is subject to sexual selection through female choice in this species.     

Biological Air Quality Monitoring: a Review

Air quality monitoring is currently ensured by captors measuring few physicochemical parameters, then they cannot evaluate unforeseen compounds and the interaction effects of pollutants. On the contrary, the use of bioindicators can answer these problems. Among them, plants are used in two ways:1) Passive bioindicators: trees, lichens and mosses are used to determine the distribution and even the contaminants long-term effects on vast zones and, possibly, the concentrations of pollutants to which they were exposed.2) Active bioindicators: tobacco and mosses make available the defective zones in plants and enable determination of deposition fluxes.Moreover, techniques based on biomarkers identification should increase the answer's sensitivity. However, the plants present the disadvantage of being unable to provide a response in a time lapse comparable with that of the on-line analysers. Lastly, the development of tools using animal cells should allow, in the near future, to measure the total polluting load under conditions close to those of the routine techniques. Then, the real impact of the contaminant on public health could be approached.     

Influence of local environmental conditions on the seasonal acclimation process and the daily integrated production rates of Laminaria digitata (Phaeophyta) in the English Channel

Two populations of Laminaria digitata (Hudson) Lamouroux (Ann Mus Hist Nat Paris 20:21–47, 1813) were examined for their seasonal photosynthetic acclimation to clear and turbid-light environments along the French coast of the English Channel. Photosynthesis–irradiance curves, pigment concentrations and the daily in situ integrated oxygen production rates were measured in both populations. Despite the great differences in light attenuation between the sites, the two populations achieved similar oxygen production rates in the field, in relation to high maximal photosynthetic rates, total pigment concentrations and antenna (fucoxanthin + chlorophyll c)/chl a pigment ratios in sporophytes from the turbid environment. Environmental conditions (i.e. light, temperature and nitrogen availability) changed throughout the year in both sites. While the seasonal acclimation trends were evident in the clear-light environment, the strategy in the turbid-light environment differed, tending to maximize light capture throughout the year. This study highlights the diversity of the response of a single species to contrasted light environments.     

Importance of movement constraints in habitat selection studies

The aim of this study is to empirically illustrate the importance of taking movement constraints into account when testing for habitat selection with telemetry data. Global Positioning System relocations of two Scandinavian brown bears were used to compare the results of two different tests of habitat selection by the bears within their home range. Both relied on the comparison of observed dataset with datasets simulated under the hypothesis of random habitat use. The first analysis did not take movement constraints into account (simulations were carried out by randomly distributing a set of points in the home range) whereas the second analysis accounted for these constraints (simulations were carried out by building random trajectories in the home range). The results for the two analyses showed contrasted results. Therefore, not accounting for movement constraints in analyses may result in a misleading biological interpretation. Autocorrelation between relocations is not undesirable: it contains information about ecological processes that should be integrated in habitat selection analyses.     

Prenatal diagnosis,prediction of outcome and in utero therapy of isolated congenital diaphragmatic hernia

Congenital diaphragmatic hernia (CDH) can be associated with genetic or structural anomalies with poor prognosis. In isolated cases, survival is dependent on the degree of lung hypoplasia and liver position. Cases should be referred in utero to tertiary care centers familiar with this condition both for prediction of outcome as well as timed delivery. The best validated prognostic indicator is the lung area to head circumference ratio. Ultrasound is used to measure the lung area of the index case, which is then expressed as a proportion of what is expected normally (observed/expected LHR). When O/E LHR is < 25% survival chances are < 15%. Prenatal intervention, aiming to stimulate lung growth, can be achieved by temporary fetal endoscopic tracheal occlusion (FETO). A balloon is percutaneously inserted into the trachea at 26–28 weeks, and reversal of occlusion is planned at 34 weeks. Growing experience has demonstrated the feasibility and safety of the technique with a survival rate of about 50%. The lung response to, and outcome after FETO, is dependent on pre-existing lung size as well gestational age at birth. Early data show that FETO does not increase morbidity in survivors, when compared to historical controls. Several trials are currently under design. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

PM2.5 source apportionment in a French urban coastal site under steelworks emission influences using constrained non-negative matrix factorization receptor model

The constrained weighted-non-negative matrix factorization(CW-NMF) hybrid receptor model was applied to study the influence of steelmaking activities on PM_(2.5)(particulate matter with equivalent aerodynamic diameter less than 2.5 μm) composition in Dunkerque,Northern France. Semi-diurnal PM_(2.5)samples were collected using a high volume sampler in winter 2010 and spring 2011 and were analyzed for trace metals, water-soluble ions, and total carbon using inductively coupled plasma – atomic emission spectrometry(ICP-AES),ICP- mass spectrometry(ICP-MS), ionic chromatography and micro elemental carbon analyzer. The elemental composition shows that NO_3~-, SO_4~(2-), NH_4~+and total carbon are the main PM_(2.5)constituents. Trace metals data were interpreted using concentration roses and both influences of integrated steelworks and electric steel plant were evidenced. The distinction between the two sources is made possible by the use Zn/Fe and Zn/Mn diagnostic ratios. Moreover Rb/Cr, Pb/Cr and Cu/Cd combination ratio are proposed to distinguish the ISW-sintering stack from the ISW-fugitive emissions. The a priori knowledge on the influencing source was introduced in the CW-NMF to guide the calculation. Eleven source profiles with various contributions were identified: 8 are characteristics of coastal urban background site profiles and 3 are related to the steelmaking activities. Between them,secondary nitrates, secondary sulfates and combustion profiles give the highest contributions and account for 93% of the PM_(2.5)concentration. The steelwork facilities contribute in about 2%of the total PM_(2.5)concentration and appear to be the main source of Cr, Cu, Fe, Mn, Zn.