Estimating the variance in before-after studies

Problem

To simplify the computation of the variance in before-after studies, it is generally assumed that the observed crash data for each entity (or observation) are Poisson distributed. Given the characteristics of this distribution, the observed value (x_i) for each entity is implicitly made equal to its variance. However, the variance should be estimated using the conditional properties of this observed value (defined as a random variable), that is, f(x_i|μ_i), since the mean of the observed value is in fact unknown.

Method

Parametric and non-parametric bootstrap methods were investigated to evaluate the conditional assumption using simulated and observed data.

Results

The results of this study show that observed data should not be used as a substitute for the variance, even if the entities are assumed to be Poisson distributed. Consequently, the estimated variance for the parameters under study in traditional before-after studies is likely to be underestimated.

Conclusions

The proposed methods offer more accurate approaches for estimating the variance in before-after studies.     

Bages-Sigean and Canet-St Nazaire lagoons (France): physico-chemical characteristics and contaminant concentrations (Cu,Cd, PCBs and PBDEs) as environmental quality of water and sediment

Environmental characteristics in water and sediments of two contrasted coastal Mediterranean lagoons, Bages-Sigean and Canet-St Nazaire, were measured over a three season survey. The urban pollution (treatment plant discharges) is very important in Canet-St Nazaire lagoon reflecting untreated sewages, while in Bages-Sigean, the northern part appears more impacted due to larger anthropogenic inputs. Dissolved Cd concentrations are on the whole similar in both lagoons, whereas Cu concentrations are by far higher in lagoon Canet-St Nazaire. Cu concentrations appear to be highly dependent on dissolved organic carbon whereas salinity seems to control Cd variations. Concerning the sediments, the confined northern part of lagoon Bages-Sigean shows organic carbon and total nitrogen enrichment whereas lipid concentrations are much higher in the Canet-St Nazaire lagoon. Cu complexation seems to be strongly related to organic matter as evidenced by the two significant positive relationships, on one hand between Cu and organic carbon, and on the other hand, between Cu and lipids. On the contrary, Cd concentrations appear to be mainly controlled by carbonates. PCBs and PBDEs were detected only in sediments and show relatively low concentrations compared to similar lagoon environments. Regarding the sediment quality guidelines, Cd, Cu and PCBs in both lagoons did not exceed any Probable Effect Concentration (PEC).     

Small queens in the ant Ectatomma tuberculatum: a new case of social parasitism

Social parasites exploit the worker force of colonies of other social insects to rear their own young. Social parasitism occurs in several Hymenoptera and is particularly common in several tribes of the ant subfamilies Myrmicinae and Formicinae. Here, we document the occurrence of miniaturized queens (microgynes) in colonies of Ectatomma tuberculatum, an ant belonging to the subfamily Ectatomminae. Behavioral observations and genetic analyses show that microgynes concentrate their reproductive efforts almost exclusively on the production of sexual offspring (microgynes and males), whereas the regular, large queens (macrogynes) produce workers in addition to sexuals. According to mitochondrial and nuclear markers, gene flow between microgynes and macrogynes is extremely limited. Whereas the co-occurrence of microgynes and macrogynes in the related species Ectatomma ruidum constitutes an intraspecific polymorphism associated with alternative dispersal tactics, microgynes found in colonies of E. tuberculatum appear to be a distinct species and to represent the first case of social parasitism in the poneromorph subfamilies of ants.     

Protective Progressives to Distrustful Traditionalists: A Post Hoc Segmentation Method for Science Communication

ABSTRACT

This study demonstrates a post-hoc segmentation that is effective in creating distinct and robust segments of interest for researchers and practitioners in science communication. We use agglomerative hierarchical clustering to classify survey respondents based on answers to a short, five-item battery of questions drawn from variables that are frequently used in science communication. Resulting segments demonstrate strong differences in regards to demographics, issue-specific science knowledge, attention to media, sentiment toward media, and social networking site use. We assess the utility of the segments through a series of regression analyses in order to determine differences among segments with regards to intent to seek information about three science issues: fracking, nanotechnology, and synthetic biology.     

Are the Precautionary Principle and the International Trade of Genetically Modified Organisms Reconcilable?

This paper seeks to find possibilities forreconciliation of the implementation of theprecautionary principle and the promotion ofinternational trade of genetically modified organisms,based on the assumption that a sustainabledevelopment is a right objective to strive for. Itstarts with an explanation of the background and therole of the precautionary principle, and describes inwhat way measures based on the precautionary principlecan easily lead to the creation of trade barriers. Thearticle then examines to what extent the WTO (WorldTrade Organisation) Agreements allow theimplementation of the precautionary principle. Inaddition, structural conflicts between the perceptionof the precautionary principle and the concept oftrade liberalisation will be evoked. The last sectionof the paper analyses to what extent the WTO rulesprovide possibilities to avoid or solve theseconflicts in order to attempt to answer the mainquestion: are the precautionary principle and theinternational trade of genetically modified organismsreconcilable?     

Ozone pre-treatment as improver of PAH removal during anaerobic digestion of urban sludge

Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons are ubiquitous persistent pollutants. They may accumulate in sludge during wastewater treatment because of their low biodegradability and their hydrophobic characteristics. Combination of ozonation and anaerobic digestion may be efficient to remove PAHs naturally present in sludge. The objective of this study was to investigate the impact of ozone pre-treatment, with and without surfactant addition, on the anaerobic degradation of 12 PAHs (from low to high molecular weight). Under anaerobic digestion without ozonation pre-treatment, the highest removals were obtained for the lightest PAHs (3-aromatic rings). Ozonation pre-treatment of sludge allowed to increase biodegradability or bioavailability of each PAH, and the PAH removals were well correlated to the PAH solubility. Finally, addition of tyloxapol before sludge ozone pre-treatment had antagonist effects on PAH removal during anaerobic digestion: negative impact on anaerobic ecosystem activity and improvement of PAH bioaccessibility (particularly the PAHs with the highest octanol water partition coefficients).     

Polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins (PCDDs), polychlorinated dibenzofurans (PCDFs) and polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) in breast milk of first-time Irish mothers: impact of the 2008 dioxin incident in Ireland

The 2008 dioxin incident in Ireland resulted in elevated concentrations of polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins (PCDDs), dibenzofurans (PCDFs) and polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) in Irish pork and pork products, due to the consumption of contaminated animal feed by pigs. In order to investigate any resulting impact on the Irish population, these contaminants were measured in pooled breast milk samples from 109 first-time mothers, collected in 2010. A comparison of the results with similar data from 2002 revealed generally lower concentrations of PCDD/Fs and dioxin-like PCBs in the 2010 samples, confirming the declining trend reported by many authors. Contaminant concentration levels for both 2002 and 2010 were generally slightly lower than those reported internationally, with a mean combined PCDD/F and PCB WHO-TEQ of 9.66 pg g⁻¹ fat, for an overall pooled sample of milk from 2010. An apparent slight increase in PCDFs was observed between 2002 and 2010 (from 2.73 pg WHO-TEQ g⁻¹ fat to 3.21 pg WHO-TEQ g⁻¹ fat), with the main contributory congener being 2,3,4,7,8-PentaCDF. While it cannot be totally discounted that the slight increase in 2,3,4,7,8-PentaCDF and in the overall PCDF WHO-TEQ in breast milk could be attributable to consumption of Irish pork during the 2008 incident, we consider that it is more likely that this was due to other factors, including the predominantly urban/industrial sampling locations for the 2010 samples, compared to 2002.     

Cache and carry: hoarding behavior of arctic fox

Food-hoarding animals are expected to preferentially cache items with lower perishability and/or higher consumption time. We observed arctic foxes (Alopex lagopus) foraging in a greater snow goose (Anser caerulescens atlanticus) colony where the main prey of foxes consisted of goose eggs, goslings, and lemmings (Lemmus and Dicrostonyx spp.). We recorded the number of prey consumed and cached and the time that foxes invested in these activities. Foxes took more time to consume a goose egg than a lemming or gosling but cached a greater proportion of eggs than the other prey type. This may be caused by the eggshell, which presumably decreases the perishability and/or pilfering risk of cached eggs, but also increases egg consumption time. Arctic foxes usually recached goose eggs but rarely recached goslings or lemmings. We tested whether the rapid-sequestering hypothesis could explain this recaching behavior. According to this hypothesis, arctic foxes may adopt a two-stage strategy allowing both to maximize egg acquisition rate in an undefended nest and subsequently secure eggs in potentially safer sites. Foxes spent more time carrying an egg and traveled greater distances when establishing a secondary than a primary cache. To gain further information on the location and subsequent fate of cached eggs, we used dummy eggs containing radio transmitters. Lifespan of primary caches increased with distance from the goose nest. Secondary caches were generally located farther from the nest and had a longer lifespan than primary caches. Behavioral observations and the radio-tagged egg technique both gave results supporting the rapid-sequestering hypothesis.