Health effects from the nuclear fuel cycle and other sources in perspective

The data base for each process of the nuclear fuel cycle has been updated as a part of the Committee on Nuclear and Alternative Energy Systems (CONAES) at Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL). The BNL Energy System Network Simulator (ESNS) was modified to accommodate the new data, and methodology was developed for estimating population dose and health effects resulting from atmosphere releases of radioactive materials from the nuclear fuel cycle.Estimates of population dose and health effects were made using these new CONAES emission data and the new model for three scenarios out to the year 2000: (1) no reprocessing; (2) reprocessing, 1-year cooling; and (3) reprocessing, 5-year cooling. Results indicate that radon emissions from mining and milling of uranium bearing ores will have greater impacts than any other component in the open nuclear fuel cycle. The estimated number of health effects will depend, to a large extent, on the lung model mechanism assumed to induce cancer; i.e., either the smeared or the unsmeared model. The smear model and the linear relationship predict for scenario 1, 630; for scenario 2, 949; and for scenario 3, 854 lung cancers, respectively, using the new CONAES data.Epidemiologic data from six United States counties were correlated using a new statistical model (described in the text) in order to test the validity of the lung model and the linear relationship. Results do not support the high lung cancer correlations expected from the unsmear model and the linear relationship; therefore, it is concluded that low-dose mechanisms may be different from those developed from high-dose data. The best place to look for effects of low-dose radiation may be the less developed countries because of a reduction in the noise level caused by chemical pollutants.     

AN APPLICATION RUNOFF MODEL STRATEGY FOR UNGAGED WATERSHEDS1

ABSTRACT: Mathematical models for predicting watershed surface flow responses are available, most of which are elaborate nonlinear numerical surface and channel flow models linked with infiltration models. Such models may be used to make predictions for ungaged areas, assuming an acceptable fitting of the model to the topography and roughness of the real system. For some application purposes, these models are impractical because of their complexity and expensive computer solutions. A procedure is developed that uses a complex model of an ungaged area to derive a simpler parametric nonlinear system model for repetitious simulation with input sequences. The predicted flow outputs are obtained with the simpler model at significant savings of money and time. The procedures for constructing a complex kinematic model of a 40 acre (161,880 m²) reference watershed and deriving the simpler system model are outlined. The results of predictions from both models are compared with a selected set of measured events, all having essentially the same initial conditions. Peak discharges ranged from 3 to 118 ft³/sec (0.085 to 3.34 m³/sec), which includes the largest event of record. The inherent limitations of lumped systems models are demonstrated, including the bias caused by their inability to model infiltration losses after rainfall ceases. Computer costs and times for the models were compared. The derived simple model has a cost advantage when repeated use of a model is required. Such an applications hydrologic model has an engineering tradeoff of reduced accuracy, and lumping bias, but is more economical for certain design purposes.     

An ecological approach to environmental impact assessment

Carbon cycling analysis is presented as a means for assessing anthropogenic perturbations in an ecosystem. Data from oligotrophic, eutrophic, and dystrophic (bog) lakes are used to show general trends in the lacustrine carbon cycle. The oligotrophic lake is an unstressed system and the eutrophic lake is under nutrient enrichment with high algal standing crops and productivity. The bog lake is a pH-stressed environment that is primarily a grazing ecosystem. It is hoped that a more effective environmental impact assessment will result from the use of carbon cycling as a unifying concept in ecosystem analysis.     

THE LOUISIANA ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT SYSTEM AND ITS UTILITY IN WATER RESOURCE PLANNING1

ABSTRACT: The Louisiana Environmental Management System (LEMS) is a data processing program developed to aid the Louisiana Joint Legislative Committee on Environmental Quality in decisions leading to resources legislation. Serving as a central data collection and retrieval point for various agencies, the LEMS will maintain assembled information on the location of monitoring stations and coordinate the files of user agencies with data on: land use; air and water quality; meteorological, climatological, and hydrological phenomena; vegetation; fish and wildlife conservation; population; and economics. This data is geographically stored in relation to the state plane coordinate system. For decision making, all pertinent hydrologic, topographic, engineering, cadastral, and other information from separate sources can be automatically mapped as a combined overlay to one of three chosen scales. Land-use patterns are the input data for iterative analyses of present conditions and simulated future human activities for assessing the environmental impact of proposed multiple-purpose water resource developments.     

Relation of Lake Acidification and Recovery to Fish,Common Loon and Common Merganser Occurrence in Algoma Lakes

Models are needed that predict both spatial and temporal improvements to ecosystems following reductions of acidifying emissions that produce `acid rain'. Logistic regression models were developed for the occurrence of fish and two fish-eatingbirds, common loons (Gavia immer) and common mergansers(Mergus merganser), using monitoring data collected onlakes across Ontario. These models were applied in the Algomaregion, including the Turkey Lakes Watershed (TLW). Using theWaterfowl Acidification Response Modeling System (WARMS), severalSO₂ emission reduction scenarios were simulated, i.e. thosecontributing to measured 1982–1986 sulphate deposition levels, 1994levels (corresponding to full implementation of Canadian SO₂emission reductions as stipulated in the 1991 Canada/U.S. AirQuality Agreement), 2010 levels (1994 plus full U.S. reductions),and both a 50% and a 75% further reduction beyond 2010 levels. Some habitat improvements in Algoma were predicted under the 2010scenario for all biota, but substantial increases in habitatquality, especially for mergansers, would occur only under further reductions. The TLW showed little change in chemistry orbiota, while lakes near the Montreal River were predicted toimprove substantially.     

A Social Contract for Biotechnology: Shared Visions for Risky Technologies?

Future technological developmentsconcerning food, agriculture, and theenvironment face a gulf of social legitimationfrom a skeptical public and media, in the wakeof the crises of BSE, GM food, and foot andmouth disease in the UK (House of Lords, 2000). Keyethical issues were ignored by the bioindustry,regulators, and the Government, leaving alegacy of distrust. The paper examinesagricultural biotechnology in terms of a socialcontract, whose conditions would have to be fulfilled togain acceptance of novel applications. Variouscurrent and future GM applications areevaluated against these conditions. Successwould depend critically on how far a sharedvision can be found with the public. Tore-establish trust, significant changes areidentified in the planning and pursuit ofbiotechnology.     

Disease avoidance influences shelter use and predation in Caribbean spiny lobster

Shelter competition is uncommon among social animals, as is the case among normally gregarious Caribbean spiny lobsters (Panulirus argus). However, healthy lobsters avoid sheltering with conspecifics infected by a lethal pathogenic virus, PaV1. These contradictory behaviors have implications for shelter use and survival, especially in areas where shelter is limited. In laboratory experiments, we tested shelter competition between paired healthy and diseased juvenile lobsters in shelter-limited mesocosms. Neither healthy nor diseased lobsters dominated access to shelters, but lobsters shared shelter less often when diseased lobsters were present relative to controls with two healthy lobsters. We hypothesized that exclusion of juvenile lobsters from shelter results in increased mortality from predation, especially for the more lethargic, infected individuals. Field tethering trials revealed that predation was indeed higher on infected individuals and on all tethered lobsters deprived of shelter. We then tested in mesocosm experiments how the contrasting risks of predation versus infection by a lethal pathogen influence shelter use. Lobsters were offered a choice of an empty shelter or one containing a diseased lobster in the presence of a predator (i.e., caged octopus) whose presence normally elicits shelter-seeking behavior, and these data were compared with a previous study where the predator was absent. Lobsters selected the empty shelter significantly more often despite the threat of predation, foregoing the protection of group defense in favor of reduced infection risk. These results offer striking evidence of how pathogenic diseases shape not only the behavior of social animals but also their use of shelters and risk of predation.     

QUANTIFICATION OF THE WATER BUDGET AND NUTRIENT LOADING IN A SMALL PEATLAND1

ABSTRACT: Few water budgets exist for specific types of wetlands such as peatlands, even though such information provides the basis from which to investigate linkages between wetlands and upland ecosystems. In this study, we first determined the water budget and then estimated nutrient loading from an upland farm field into a 1.5 ha, kettle-block peatland. The wetland contains highly anisotropic peat and has no distinct, active layer of groundwater flow. We estimated the depth of the active layer using Fick's law of diffusion and quantified groundwater flow using a chemical mass balance model. Evapotranspiration was determined using MORECS, a semi-physical model based on the Penman-Monteith approach. Precipitation and surface outflow were measured using physical means. Groundwater provided the major inflow, 84 percent (44,418 m³) in 1993 and 88 percent (68,311 m³) in 1994. Surface outflow represented 54 percent (28,763 m³) of total outflows in 1993 and 48 percent (37,078 m³) in 1994. A comparison of several published water budgets for wetlands and lakes showed that error estimates for hydrologic components in this study are well within the range of error estimates calculated in other studies. Groundwater inflow estimates and nutrient concentrations of three springs were used to estimate agricultural nutrient loading to the site. During the study period, nutrient loading into the peatland via groundwater discharge averaged 24.74 kg K ha^-1, 1.83 kg total inorganic P ha^d, and 21.81 kg NO₃-N ha^-1.     

Stimulation of aerobic degradation of chlorinated ethenes in soil by microbial inoculation

Degradation of chlorinated ethenes under aerobic conditions has been reported using a cometabolic pathway. A site in Illinois had shallow contamination and sandy soils, which in combination created aerobic conditions. The aerobic conditions prevented the degradation of chlorinated ethenes by reductive dechlorination. Biodegradation of chloroethenes under aerobic conditions does not occur naturally at all sites; however, it can be enhanced if microorganisms capable of cometabolic degradation are introduced into the soil. In this study, trichloroethene (TCE) removal in the soil was enhanced by the injection of a commercially available microbial inoculum (CL‐OUT® inoculum, CL‐Solutions, Cincinnati, OH) and nutrients and was compared to chlorinated ethene removal in soil that had received nutrients only and soil that had received activated sludge and nutrients. Trichloroethene removal was measured after one week, seven weeks, and eleven weeks. After one week, no significant TCE removal had occurred in any of the test microcosms. After seven weeks, a slight decrease in TCE levels accompanied by an increase in cis‐1,2‐dichloroethene (cis‐1,2‐DCE) was seen in the microcosms that had received CL‐OUT®. After 11 weeks, a marked decrease in TCE levels was observed in the microcosms that had received CL‐OUT®. No significant TCE decrease was observed in any of the other microcosms. These data suggest that organisms capable of aerobic TCE degradation were not present at the site; however, the addition of an inoculum containing such organisms enabled aerobic degradation to occur. © 2008 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.