Abundances and variability of tropospheric volatile organic compounds at the South Pole and other Antarctic locations

Multiyear (2000–2006) seasonal measurements of carbon monoxide, hydrocarbons, halogenated species, dimethyl sulfide, carbonyl sulfide and C₁–C₄ alkyl nitrates at the South Pole are presented for the first time. At the South Pole, short-lived species (such as the alkenes) typically were not observed above their limits of detection because of long transit times from source regions. Peak mixing ratios of the longer lived species with anthropogenic sources were measured in late winter (August and September) with decreasing mixing ratios throughout the spring. In comparison, compounds with a strong oceanic source, such as bromoform and methyl iodide, had peak mixing ratios earlier in the winter (June and July) because of decreased oceanic production during the winter months. Dimethyl sulfide (DMS), which is also oceanically emitted but has a short lifetime, was rarely measured above 5 pptv. This is in contrast to high DMS mixing ratios at coastal locations and shows the importance of photochemical removal during transport to the pole. Alkyl nitrate mixing ratios peaked during April and then decreased throughout the winter. The dominant source of the alkyl nitrates in the region is believed to be oceanic emissions rather than photochemical production due to low alkane levels.Sampling of other tropospheric environments via a Twin Otter aircraft included the west coast of the Ross Sea and large stretches of the Antarctic Plateau. In the coastal atmosphere, a vertical gradient was found with the highest mixing ratios of marine emitted compounds at low altitudes. Conversely, for anthropogenically produced species the highest mixing ratios were measured at the highest altitudes, suggesting long-range transport to the continent. Flights flown through the plume of Mount Erebus, an active volcano, revealed that both carbon monoxide and carbonyl sulfide are emitted with an OCS/CO molar ratio of 3.3 × 10^?3 consistent with direct observations by other investigators within the crater rim.     

Sample size requirements for multiple regression interval estimation

Sample size planning is one of the most important issues in the design of a study. Simple and accurate sample size formulas for a desired confidence interval width have been developed for many statistical procedures, but a simple and accurate sample size formula for the squared multiple correlation has been a notable exception. Several rule‐of‐thumb sample size recommendations for a multiple regression analysis have been proposed over the years but none are satisfactory. Other approaches have focused on the construction of elaborate tables of sample size requirements, but these tables are both unwieldy and inadequate. We present a simple, accurate, and general method of approximating the sample size requirement for obtaining a squared multiple correlation confidence interval with desired precision. We also present a simple method for approximating the sample size needed to estimate unstandardized regression coefficients with desired precision. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Making Cleanup Decisions at Hazardous Waste Sites: The Clean Sites Approach

This paper provides a summary of the results of an 18-month study conducted by Clean Sites, Inc. of Alexandria, Virginia. The study was designed to take a critical look at the way remedies are selected for abandoned hazardous waste sites that are cleaned up under the authority of the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act (CERCLA or Superfund) and to develop recommendations for improving that process. The recommendations were released in an October 1990 report entitled “Improving Remedy Selection: An Explicit and Interactive Process for the Superfund Program.” Through a cooperative agreement with the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Clean Sites is working to test these recommendations. At two actual Superfund sites, Clean Sites will assist EPA in performing the remedy selection in accordance with the process Clean Sites has developed.     

Guiding Climate Change Adaptation Within Vulnerable Natural Resource Management Systems

Climate change has the potential to compromise the sustainability of natural resources in Mediterranean climatic systems, such that short-term reactive responses will increasingly be insufficient to ensure effective management. There is a simultaneous need for both the clear articulation of the vulnerabilities of specific management systems to climate risk, and the development of appropriate short- and long-term strategic planning responses that anticipate environmental change or allow for sustainable adaptive management in response to trends in resource condition. Governments are developing climate change adaptation policy frameworks, but without the recognition of the importance of responding strategically, regional stakeholders will struggle to manage future climate risk. In a partnership between the South Australian Government, the Adelaide and Mt Lofty Ranges Natural Resource Management Board and the regional community, a range of available research approaches to support regional climate change adaptation decision-making, were applied and critically examined, including: scenario modelling; applied and participatory Geographical Information Systems modelling; environmental risk analysis; and participatory action learning. As managers apply ideas for adaptation within their own biophysical and socio-cultural contexts, there would be both successes and failures, but a learning orientation to societal change will enable improvements over time. A base-line target for regional responses to climate change is the ownership of the issue by stakeholders, which leads to an acceptance that effective actions to adapt are now both possible and vitally important. Beyond such baseline knowledge, the research suggests that there is a range of tools from the social and physical sciences available to guide adaptation decision-making.     

Planned retreat as a management response to coastal risk: a case study from the Fleurieu Peninsula, South Australia

Australian coastal areas have been identified as highly vulnerable to climate change, with major projected impacts including sea level rise, extreme weather events, increased erosion, and a change in coastal processes and wave patterns. Such impacts would cause coastal settlements and ecosystems to face increasingly uncertain conditions. In response to increased risk, effective coastal management at local and regional scales is needed, with governing bodies providing significant leadership. This research explores the challenges of applying effective adaptation responses to projected climate change in vulnerable coastal systems on the South Coast of the Fleurieu Peninsula, South Australia. In particular, the option of planned retreat as a management response to coastal risk is critically examined, with the incorporation of learning from Byron Bay, NSW. A mixed methods approach was undertaken by integrating documentary interrogation with the analysis of interview responses from key coastal managers. It was determined that despite the increase in adaptation planning and development of management strategy options to manage sea level rise on the Fleurieu Peninsula, there is a lack of implementation of adaptation responses. In addition, planning seems to focus largely on the implications of sea level rise on infrastructure, often overlooking other risks and possible ecological impacts. Inconsistencies in governance are reflected at all levels, indicating a need for comprehensive improvements to ensure the incorporation of appropriate risk responses into planning decisions.     

Uncertainty in exhaustible natural resource economics: The irreversible sunk costs of Hotelling

According to Pindyck (2007) there are three important aspects of uncertainly in environmental economics: (1) the benefits and costs of environmental policy tend to be highly non-linear, (2) environmental policy tends to involve important irreversibilities, where investment in pollution abatement can impose an irreversible, sunk cost on society, and where certain pollutants can stay in the environment forever and build up to cause even more future harm in which case investment in abatement can cause an irreversible, sunk benefit to society, and (3) environmental policy involves long time horizons and yet the discount rate society should use is uncertain for determining the net present value of costs and benefits of pollution abatement. These same uncertainties also affect non-renewable, exhaustible, natural resource economics and in particular the use of the Hotelling rule: (1) the costs, benefits and transversality conditions of using the Hotelling rule can be highly non-linear, (2) the Hotelling rule involves important sunk cost irreversibilities, which will be explained here, and (3) the Hotelling rule can involve long time horizons with uncertain discount rates. All three of these problem make it extremely difficult for a market to use in any way the Hotelling rule, yet by the sheer number of articles in non-renewable natural resource economics, one would believe that it is the basis of all resource markets. In this article, we concentrate on the sunk cost irreversibilities of using the Hotelling rule. The idea of the Hotelling rule is to optimally store a non-renewable resource, but the optimization is highly dependent on the actual reserves that are available to extract. However, reserves of underground exhaustible resources are often unobservable at the beginning stages of extraction which makes using the Hotelling Rule difficult.     

Seeking knowledge of traditional Indigenous burning practices to inform regional bushfire management

ABSTRACT

A transdisciplinary review of the current academic knowledge of Indigenous traditional fire management is presented for the Mt Lofty Ranges in South Australia. For a long time, the roles of Indigenous management of the landscape have either been overlooked or discounted within environmental studies. That situation is beginning to change in many parts of Australia. However, this review of knowledge of traditional Indigenous burning practices specifically for the Mt Lofty Ranges suggests that there is very little formalised, academic knowledge available that could be utilised to inform prescribed burning practices in the region. Perhaps Indigenous peoples’ use of fire was strongly governed by individual choices, or perhaps established regimes demarcated roles across groups; perhaps some areas were burnt regularly and others were left unaltered – there is still no clear evidence from the academic literature to provide even limited understandings of such elements of pre-colonial fire regimes. That gap in knowledge will become increasingly problematic as the need for appropriate, sophisticated burning practices to respond to risk in peri-urban Adelaide increases with a changing climate. To learn from traditional Indigenous land management: (a) formal knowledge needs to be generated on past regional burning practices; and (b) understanding needs to be developed as to whether past burning practices could lead to effective hazard management and biodiversity outcomes within contemporary landscapes. Such an integration of Indigenous knowledge for effective environmental management will only be possible if the injustices of past exclusions of the importance of Indigenous biocultural practices are recognised.